دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 51 2 2019 06 22 Analysis of Cause Effect Relationships of the Indicators Influencing Integrated Management of Tehran Periphery, as the Capital of Iran بررسی و تحلیل روابط علّی و معلولی شاخص‌های تأثیرگذار بر مدیریت یکپارچۀ حریم پایتخت 429 451 64046 10.22059/jhgr.2017.239788.1007527 FA نوبخت سبحانی دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران پروانه زیویار دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد یادگار امام (ره) شهر ری، تهران، ایران رحیم سرور استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2017 08 14 Introduction At the beginning of the 21st century, the population of the world was 6 billion, and now more than half of that is living in cities, also it is expected that it would increase in the future decades. Thus, by 2050, the world's population living in cities is projected to reach over 70% all over the world. Therefore, this high growth of urbanization over the last two centuries and the expansion of cities, have caused a lot of quantitative and qualitative changes in urban spaces, including City Peripheral. In the last few decades, Tehran metropolis has witnessed numerous and varied transformations in various demographic, social, economic and physical-spatial fields due to the policy of focusing on Peripheral space.This problem, in one hand, with increasing interest in residential and non-residential construction outside the legal area of ​​Tehran, and on the other hand, with regard to the monetization approach of the land around Tehran and the creation of an intense competition to takeover more stakeholders contributions has become a crisis.  Methodology This present study is an applied research with a descriptive-analytical method. In this process, the library and reference resources have been used based on the data requirements of the research. The main data collection tool of the research was a questionnaire designed as a paired comparison to identify effective and impressionable indicators on integrated Peripheral management of the capital based on the structure of the Fuzzy Dematel technique in two phases of weight determination and prioritization. Statistical population of this research contains all experts of the Tehran city Peripheral offices and University experts and professors in this field. According to statistics, the total number of the population is 30, of which 11 are specialists in the field of Peripheral and the rest are the specialists and experts in the subject. In this research, statistical population was surveyed through census because of the limited number of statistical population (experts of the Tehran city Peripheral office and specialists). According to the data, respondents were 66.7% male and 31.3% female. Most respondents (45.8%) have a bachelor's degree and then they have a Master’s degree and a higher degree (39.6%). Content validity method has been used for justifiability of the measure. In other words, after setting up the questionnaire, it was shared by several experienced professionals who verified the validity of questionnaire, and then the questionnaire was prepared. Also, the reliability of the research has been confirmed by Cronbach's alpha coefficient (0.8) which shows that the questionnaire has a desirable reliability and questions have a suitable internal correlation. Fuzzy Dematel technique was used to analyze the findings.  Results and discussion Horizontal vector (Di+Ri) is the amount of causation of the intended factor. Vertical vector (Di-Ri) indicates the effectiveness of each factor. Usually when Di-Ri is positive, the factor is cause and otherwise Di-Ri is negative representing that the factor is effect. Looking at the diagram of cause, it is clear that the evaluation factors are divided into cause and effect groups. In terms of management, the caused groups include the weakness of information infrastructure for integrated urban management and the effected groups also include improvements to the intelligent control system and so on. Moreover, in terms of good urban governance, the caused groups include participation and so on, and the effect groups also include community-based, etc. The cause groups include lack of management in providing infrastructure to provide affordable housing and so on, and the effect groups also include space irregularities in the structure of settlements, etc.   Conclusion Among the criteria, the management criteria are considered in terms of effectiveness and importance. In good urban governance, the sub-criterion of efficiency and effectiveness with a score of 0.0467 is in the first place, also in the physical section, the sub-criterion of the lack of management in providing infrastructure to provide affordable housing with a score of 0.0661 is in the first place. Finally, the sub-criterion of the economic sector including the existence of an informal economy in the peripheral residential areas is in the first place with the highest score (0.0605). Therefore, these sub-criteria are most important and effective in terms of earning points and being in the first place because they have the strongest relationship with other factors in the changes of the capital's Periphery. In terms of effect factors, it is possible to mention management criteria (lack of intelligent control system), good urban governance (central focus), physical (dense building development), and economic (profitable look at government sectors).   کلان‌شهر تهران در چند دهة اخیر شاهد دگرگونی‌های متنوع و متعددی در عرصه‌های مختلف جمعیتی، اجتماعی، اقتصادی و کالبدی-‌فضایی بر اثر سیاست تمرکزگرایی در فضای حریم بوده است. این موضوع از یک‌سو، با افزایش تمایل به ساخت‌وسازهای مسکونی و غیرمسکونی بیرون از محدودة قانونی شهر تهران و از سوی دیگر، با توجه به رویکرد کسب درآمد از اراضی پیرامون شهر تهران و ایجاد رقابت شدید برای تصاحب سهم بیشتر توسط ذینفعان مختلف، به بحران مبدل شده است. نوع پژوهش از لحاظ هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، توصیفی-تحلیلی است. هدف پژوهش، سنجش حریم پایتخت به‌لحاظ شاخص‌های تأثیرگذار و اثرپذیر بر مدیریت یکپارچة حریم است. براساس آمار به‌دست‌آمده، از تعداد کل جامعه که شامل 30 نفر است، 11 نفر کارشناس ادارة حریم و مابقی متخصصان و خبرگان موضوع پژوهش بودند. برای پایایی پرسشنامه از ضریب آلفای کرونباخ استفاده شد که مقدار 0/8 به‌دست آمد. برای تجزیه ‌و تحلیل یافته‌ها از روش دیمتل فازی بهره گرفته شد. مؤلفه‌های بررسی‌شده در این پژوهش، در4  عامل کالبدی، اقتصادی، مدیریتی و حکمروایی خوب شهری تقسیم‌بندی شدند. نتایج نشان داد عواملی چون مدیریت مجمع‌الجزایری حریم از لحاظ عملکردی، قلمروی و جغرافیایی، نبود حکمروایی خوب شهری، ضعف مدیریتی در تأمین زیرساخت‌ها برای عرضة مسکن مناسب و وجود اقتصاد غیررسمی در کانون‌های اسکان مستقر در حریم، بیشترین تأثیر را بر وضعیت حریم شهر تهران داشته‌اند. از سوی دیگر، نبود سامانة کنترل هوشمند، توسعة متراکم ساختمانی و ضعف بنیان‌های اقتصادی مبتنی‌برزمین در حریم، از اثرپذیری‌ترین عوامل بودند. https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_64046_1bfe9c02e6a363027d3910ef0d34854a.pdf