دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 51 4 2019 12 22 Modeling the Effects of Marginalization on the Changes in Urmia City and Predicting Physical Urban Expansion Using Satellite Images by 2032 مدل‌سازی تأثیرات حاشیه‌نشینی بر تغییرات شهر ارومیه و پیش‌بینی توسعه فیزیکی شهربا استفاده از تصاویر ماهواره‌ای تا افق 1410 871 890 65068 10.22059/jhgr.2018.230788.1007434 FA حسن محمودزاده دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری دانشگاه تبریز 0000-0001-5465-1114 کبری درخشانی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد سنجش‌ازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی دانشگاه تبریز سحر مومنی دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد سنجش‌ازدور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی دانشگاه تبریز Journal Article 2018 02 21 Introduction The rapid development of urbanization is one of the challenges for urban planners in the 21st century. Rapid urbanization in Iran with the influx of migrants to the cities without any effective program lead to development of informal settlements and marginal communities in cities, destruction of agricultural land and gardens, and  extreme physical development. In view of the marginalization due to land degradation around the city, the formation of unsustainable urban network, rising urban crime, increased urban poverty and expanding discordant town, make it essential to have manage the growth and physical development of the city. Researchers have led to developments outside the program to control, monitor and forecast models. Methodology Urban modelling in the cellular space, first by the definition of the cellular geography in urban studies has compiled cellular automata and is a perfect tool for modeling the spatial dynamics. Despite the benefits of cellular automata model, this model also has its limitations to create a true urban dynamics, simulation and not powerful enough. Therefore, to fix limits of this model, it is required to combine it with used Markov chain model. In this research, the Markov chain model and automated cells to simulate land use change process is used to evaluate the physical expansion of the city of Urmia between 1984 -2016 and to predict land use changes to year 1410. To run the model, Satellite images of Landsat 5 and 7 and 8 in the years of 1984, 1992, 2002, 2012, 2016 of Urmia were prepared and then using ENVI software, IDRISI and ArcGIS, land use changes were calculated and finally the Markov chain model and automated cells were obtained. Results and discussion Urmia city due to very favorable natural substrate (highly desirable areas of agriculture and water resources) and the development of communication network and immigration in recent years has experienced rapid population growth. The rapid growth of unorganized settlement causes marginalization and ultimately converts the incorporation of surrounding land into the city, the settlements have been cooperative. An overview of the research (research overviews) carried out in conjunction with the physical growth of the city of Urmia shows the capabilities of satellite images and models existing in connection with this type of data for the evaluation of physical growth of the city. n this research, use of satellite image information show that urban areas formed around the margins of the city in different time periods is one of the main factors of physical growth in the past decade. This form of growth and the expansion of the city caused the destruction of agricultural land and orchards of the region in particular. Urban area compared with other landuseshas expanded 5 times during this period. Garden and agricultural areas are declined in this period. The garden and agricultural lands around the city have decreased from 29.59 percent in 1984 to to 7.24 percent in 2016. During the period of nearly 32 years, half of bare lands around the city are converted into building environment. . In connection with the expansion of the city of Urmia, the surrounding settlements expanded in all directions. The city is mainly expanded in the South and South West and South East parts of the city. Given that the southern part of the city is mainly agricultural lands and gardens, this area has been changed into urban use.  In the South-Eastern part the largest land use is bare lands for the city.  A lot of Gardens and agricultural land of Urmia City are destroyed. It also reviews how the expansion of the city at this time indicated growth in the initial nucleus of the marginalization and the rural settlements around the city. The simulation results also show that until year 2030, urban built lands will increase to 7523.01 hectare (86.58 percent) according to master plan. The area of gardens and agricultural lands reduced to 619.60 hectares and arid lands to 546.33 hectares. Conclusion  According to the tips listed in the city of Urmia, satellite imagery, maps and the results offered the following suggestions: Due to the growth of the city and making indiscriminate opposition to the species of mushrooms and marginalization of the most recent period, it is necessary to monitor the municipality more accurate and more serious. The physical development of the city update monitoring using satellite images with better separation for classification of land cover maps in the next research. Due to being a dynamic process of land-use changes over time, it is recommended. In the meantime, the next research the use of dynamic models of physical and economic factors such as CA_Markov, social, and political factors, affecting the user changes, as well as comments to be considered.  رشد سریع شهرنشینی یکی از چالش‌های برنامه‌ریزان شهری در قرن 21 است. شهرنشینی سریع در ایران، هجوم مهاجران به شهرها و نبود برنامه‌ای کارا برای اسکان مهاجران سبب ایجاد مناطق حاشیه‌ای پیرامون شهرها، گسترش شهر به پیرامون و تخریب اراضی کشاورزی و باغ‌ها شده است. با توجه به این مسئله، پایش و مدیریت نحوة رشد کالبدی شهر امری ضروری است. پژوهشگران برای مهار گسترش‌های خارج از برنامه، مدل‌های پایش و پیش‌بینی مختلفی ارائه داده‌اند. پژوهش حاضر به تصویرسازی رشد حاشیه‌نشینی با تحلیل لکه‌های رشد حاشیه‌نشینی برای اولین بار در بازة زمانی 32 ساله، با استفاده از تصاویر چندزمانه و مدل زنجیرة مارکوف و سلول‌های خودکار پرداخته است. هدف این نوشتار بررسی فرایند گسترش کالبدی شهر ارومیه بین سال‌های 1363-1395 و پیش‌بینی تغییرات کاربری اراضی تا افق 1410 است. برای اجرای مدل، تصاویر ماهوارة لندست 5، 7 و 8 سال‌های 1363، 1371، 1381، 1391 و 1395 شهر ارومیه تهیه شد. سپس با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای  ENVI، IDRISIو  ArcGISمیزان تغییرات کاربری اراضی محاسبه و درنهایت دو مدل مذکور اجرا شد. نتایج نشان می‌دهد مساحت اراضی ساخته‌شدة شهری از ۲۰۱۶٫۵۵ هکتار در سال 1363 به 8/6318 هکتار در سال 1395 افزایش ‌یافته است. اراضی باغ و کشاورزی نیز از 20/2571 هکتار در سال 1363 به ۶۲۸٫۷۹ هکتار در سال 1395 کاهش ‌یافته است. همچنین در نیمی از اراضی بایر ساخت‌و‌ساز صورت گرفته است. نتایج شبیه‌سازی نیز نشان می‌دهد اراضی ساخته‌شدة شهری تا افق 1410 به 01/7523 (58/86 درصد) محدودة طرح جامع خواهد رسید. مساحت باغ‌ها و اراضی کشاورزی به ۶۱۹٫۶ و اراضی بایر نیز به ۵۴۶٫۳۳ هکتار کاهش خواهد یافت. https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_65068_2736d93d64d27be32ee4abccafbfda99.pdf