دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 16 The Nature and factors affecting the formation of Urban dualism in Iran ماهیت و عوامل مؤثر بر شکل‌گیری دوگانگی فضایی در نواحی شهری ایران 1 17 106897 10.22059/jhgr.2026.398957.1008821 FA خاطره مغانی رحیمی گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران هاشم داداشپور گروه شهرسازی، دانشکده هنر و معماری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 10 ABSTRACT No systematic or qualitative review has examined the spatial discontinuity from the perspective of the "uptown-downtown" concept and the factors that shape its formation in Iranian cities, while previous studies identify specific factors that create this gap. This research identifies and analyzes the factors that shape spatial fragmentation in the form of the "uptown-downtown" dichotomy in Iranian cities. By combining narrative review methods and structural analysis, qualitative data from previous studies and the opinions of 18 urban experts have been collected and analyzed. The findings show that spatial fragmentation in Iran is caused by five categories of socio-cultural, economic, physical-infrastructural, managerial, and environmental factors. Among the 14 identified factors, "class differences and the gap between economic deciles", "unequal distribution of urban services and facilities", and "spatial differences in literacy and employment" are the most frequent and important driving factors. Structural analysis also revealed four groups of factors as key influencing factors, including class differences, uptown/downtown subjective identity, and social status gap; influencing factors such as land prices and housing demand; independent factors; and bimodal factors. This study, for the first time in the domestic literature, has systematically identified the driving factors of spatial fragmentation and determined their hierarchy of influence. The results show that reducing spatial fragmentation requires targeted intervention in key influencing factors, especially reducing economic inequalities and reforming urban service distribution patterns. Extended Abstract Introduction Iranian cities, especially metropolitan cities, have long witnessed the formation of complex and diverse spatial structures that reflect the big social, economic, and cultural differences among their residents. These structures manifest as the “uptown” and “downtown” phenomena, where the more affluent and developed areas (uptown) contrast with and are spatially separated from the less developed and deprived areas (downtown). This spatial and class separation not only reflects differences in income and living standards, but also indicates social and cultural segregation that has been consolidated and deepened over time. The spatial discontinuity created in these cities has widespread consequences in various areas, including limiting equitable access to urban facilities and services such as education, health, transportation, and green spaces. This inequality in access, in turn, reproduces social and economic inequalities and deprives parts of society of equal opportunities for growth and progress. As a result, this spatial disconnection is not only a physical and urban issue, but also a profound challenge to social cohesion, spatial justice, and sustainable development in Iranian cities. In Iranian cities, the factors driving spatial disconnection have not been accurately and comprehensively identified, which makes effective planning and policymaking difficult. Until a deep, scientific understanding of the factors that influence the formation of this phenomenon is achieved, it is not possible to properly analyze the main reasons for the emergence of spatial gaps and to provide efficient, reality-based solutions to address them. Identifying the factors influencing spatial disconnection is essential for understanding its roots more accurately and for developing policies that can reduce inequalities and enhance spatial justice in Iranian cities. In fact, without this recognition, any intervention or planning will likely remain superficial and unsustainable and will not help to solve the problem fundamentally. Given that identifying the factors that shape this spatial duality helps better understand how urban development and effective policies are designed to reduce spatial gaps, no study has examined this issue to date. For this purpose, this research aims to answer three questions: -"What studies have examined the issue of spatial discontinuity in the concept of uptown and downtown in Iran so far?" - "What are the factors that create this concept in previous studies and according to experts?" - "What are the most key factors affecting the formation of this concept in Iranian cities?" Methodology This fundamental research, with an inductive-explanatory approach, has used a combination of qualitative (validity review, content analysis, interviews) and quantitative (structural-interpretive analysis) methods to answer the research question. First, previous studies were identified and screened in several stages using the validity review method; then, these studies were examined, and effective factors were identified using content analysis; and finally, the key factors affecting the spatial gap in Iranian cities were identified using structural analysis. Results and discussion The findings of this research show that previous studies and experts in this field consider the phenomenon of spatial discontinuity between uptown and downtown in Iranian cities to be primarily due to social and cultural factors, economic factors, physical and infrastructural factors, managerial factors, and environmental factors. Moreover, the factors of class differences and the gap between economic deciles, unequal distribution of activities, urban services and facilities, unbalanced environmental quality in the city including housing and roads, differences in the quantity and quality of employment, spatial differences in the level of literacy and education, differences in land and housing prices, etc. are respectively the most frequent or, in other words, the most important factors affecting the gap between uptown and downtown in Iran in previous studies and from the experts in this field. Conclusion As a result, by controlling the factors identified in this study, especially class differences and the gap between economic deciles, branding and mental identity of the upper and lower city, and the gap in social base and cultural differences, the spatial gap between the upper and lower city in Iran can be significantly reduced. However, cultural, social, environmental, etc. differences between different urban areas of Iran can affect how these factors are planned and prioritized. While this issue was not considered in this study due to information limitations, the authors' limited knowledge of different cities in Iran, and the standard volume of research. Future studies should likely use both quantitative and qualitative methods simultaneously to identify factors across different cities, thereby providing greater depth to analyses of spatial discontinuity. Also, research can help better understand the factors that cause spatial discontinuity by comparing different urban areas in Iran and other countries. In addition, developing conceptual and operational models to predict and control spatial fragmentation across cities can help policymakers design targeted, effective solutions. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. چکیده گسست فضایی در شهرهای ایران به بازتولید نابرابری‌های دامن زده و شناسایی عوامل مؤثر بر آن، به روشن شدن سیاست‌گذاری‌های مؤثر کمک می‌کند. اما تاکنون هیچ مطالعه مروری چه سیستماتیک و چه روایی به بررسی گسست فضایی از منظر مفهوم «بالا شهر-پایین‌شهر» و عوامل مؤثر بر شکل‌گیری آن در شهرهای ایران نپرداخته است. درحالی‌که هر یک از مطالعات پیشین عوامل خاصی را ایجادکننده این شکاف می‌دانند. به همین منظور این پژوهش به شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر شکل‌گیری گسست فضایی در قالب دوگانگی «بالا شهر-پایین‌شهر» در شهرهای ایران می‌پردازد. با تلفیق روش‌های مرور روایی و تحلیل ساختاری، داده‌های کیفی جمع‌آوری و تحلیل‌شده است. یافته‌ها نشان می‌دهد گسست فضایی در ایران ناشی از پنج دسته عامل اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، کالبدی-زیرساختی، مدیریتی و محیطی است. در میان ۱۴ عامل شناسایی‌شده، «اختلافات طبقاتی و فاصله بین دهک‌های اقتصادی»، «توزیع نابرابر خدمات و تسهیلات شهری» و «تفاوت‌های فضایی در سواد و اشتغال» پرتکرارترین و مهم‌ترین عوامل محرک هستند. تحلیل ساختاری نیز چهار گروه عامل را آشکار ساخت: (۱) عوامل تأثیرگذارِ کلیدی شامل اختلافات طبقاتی، هویت ذهنی بالا/پایین‌شهر و شکاف پایگاه اجتماعی؛ (۲) عوامل تأثیرپذیر مانند قیمت زمین و تقاضای مسکن؛ (۳) عوامل مستقل؛ و (۴) عوامل دووجهی. این پژوهش برای نخستین بار در ادبیات داخلی، عوامل محرک گسست فضایی را سیستماتیک شناسایی و سلسله‌مراتب تأثیرگذاری آن‌ها را مشخص کرده است. نتایج نشان می‌دهد که کاهش گسست فضایی مستلزم مداخله هدفمند در عوامل تأثیرگذارِ کلیدی به‌ویژه کاهش نابرابری‌های اقتصادی و اصلاح الگوهای توزیع خدمات شهری است.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106897_39693d8d658d0f2fadad93b5a277e3fb.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 16 The effects of tourism development on the emission of environmental pollutants in top tourist destination countries پیش‌بینی اثرات توسعه گردشگری بر انتشار آلودگی‌های محیطی در کشورهای برتر مقصد گردشگری 19 38 106899 10.22059/jhgr.2026.387237.1008773 FA علی منظم اسماعیل پور گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران احمد رومیانی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران فهیمه یوسف زاده سهل ابادی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی، دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد، مشهد، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 10 BSTRACT A In recent decades, tourism development has been recognized as one of the most important drivers of economic growth in many countries. However, the expansion of its activities can have consequences such as increased resource consumption, waste generation, and pollutant emissions. The purpose of this research is to predict the effects of tourism development on environmental pollution emissions in the world’s leading tourist destination countries. Data for the study were obtained from the World Bank databases and the Global Footprint Network, covering an eight-year period (2010–2017). For data analysis, penalized regression models, including Linear Regression, Ridge Regression, Lasso Regression, and Elastic Net Regression, were employed. The results revealed that the levels of environmental pollution were highest in China (2.46), Mexico (0.946), and Thailand (0.857), while the average CO₂ emissions in the United States and China were 0.74336 and 0.21523, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of MSE and R² values showed that the Lasso model performed better than its competing models. Specifically, the predicted value for PM₂.₅ was 1.014, and for CO₂, 0.726 in the Lasso model. A slight improvement in the performance of penalized regression models compared to the standard linear regression was also observed. The model comparison indicated that Ridge and Elastic Net regressions selected a greater number of predictive indicators compared to Lasso, while Lasso demonstrated superior predictive accuracy in estimating environmental pollutants (PM₂.₅, CO₂). Overall, the findings confirm that penalized regression models serve as effective and powerful tools that significantly enhance the accuracy and reliability of predictions regarding the impacts of tourism development on environmental pollution in the examined countries. Extended Abstract Introduction The tourism industry has been cited as a key strategy in boosting global economic development, increasing foreign exchange, and increasing exports. The importance of this industry in the areas of employment and local income, and promoting cultural and environmental values in developed and underdeveloped countries, is essential. According to statistics published by the World Travel and Tourism Council (2019), the tourism industry contributed US$8.8 trillion to global GDP and created one-tenth of all jobs in the world in 2018. Methodology To examine the indicators of tourism development and environmental pollution, data from (2010 to 2017) has been extracted from (https://databank.worldbank.org,) and (https://data.footprintnetwork.org). To examine this issue, we considered two dependent variables (output), namely CO2 and PM2.5 environmental pollution. Also, from 10 tourism development indicators (predictor variables), including the number of international tourist arrivals (A1), international tourism expenditure (total imports) (A2), international tourism expenditure (current US dollars) (A3), passenger transportation costs (current US dollars) (A4); international tourism travel item costs (current US dollars) (A5), number of international tourist departures (A6); International tourism revenue (total exports) (A7), international tourism receipts (current US dollars) (A8), international tourism passenger transport item receipts (current US dollars) (A9), and international tourism travel item receipts (current US dollars) (A10) have been used. Also, MSE (mean square error), RMSE (root mean square error), and R-square (coefficient of determination) values were used to measure performance. With n as the total number of observations, it should be noted that the analyses mentioned were performed in R 4.0 (R Core Team, 2020) using different packages. Results and discussion In order to answer the purpose and question raised in this research, penalized regression methods were used. One of the methods is the ordinary linear regression (OLS) model, which is the simplest algorithm that outperforms other fancy and complex models. The OLS method can only determine the factors affecting the dependent variable and has serious analytical deficiencies in predicting related variables and groups, and its results are unstable. Therefore, to overcome some of the weaknesses of this method in improving the performance of variables, penalized regression models (Ridge, Lasso, and ElasticNet) were used. The advantages of penalized models can be stated as follows: first, they manage and select the multicollinearity of the models; second, these models allow testing a large number of predictor variables; third, they introduce biases in the estimation of the models and reduce the mean square error of the responding variable. In this study, we have shown how ML algorithms can be more reliable in estimating production process parameters than classical statistical models. The use of ML models can help in planning environmental pollution reduction in top tourism destination countries, to reduce both economic costs and biological damage. In this study, it was shown how a wide range of tourism development indicators, including the number of tourist arrivals, transportation costs, travel item costs, number of departures, total export revenue costs, passenger transport item costs, and receipts costs, affect environmental pollution and there is evidence of their positive effects on the emission of environmental pollutants (PM2.5, CO2). In addition, we showed how tourism development has increased environmental pollution in the top tourism destination countries. Conclusion The results of the study showed that the average PM2.5 emissions in China, Mexico, and Thailand are 2.46, 0.946, and 0.857, and the average CO2 emissions in the United States and China are 0.74336 and 0.21523. The prediction results of the models were also compared using the root mean square error (RMSE), mean square error (MSE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The RMSE results and prediction accuracy for PM2.5 and CO2 values obtained from all competing models are very close. However, overall, the MSE and R2 results showed that the Lasso model performed better than the other competing models. In this model, the value of the PM2.5 index is 1.014, and the CO2 index is 0.726. Although this model showed its potential superiority over other models and is better compatible with training data, its use in selecting indices and prediction methods to achieve high accuracy is accompanied by flexibility. In addition, Elastic Net and RR can play an important role in tourism development and pollution emission, which have a large number of parameters. In such cases, these techniques, used to analyze tourism development on pollution emission, are the best choice for modeling and forecasting such research. In this study, we have shown how ML algorithms can be more reliable in estimating production process parameters than classical statistical models. The use of ML models can help in planning environmental pollution reduction in top tourism destination countries, to reduce both economic costs and biological damage. Funding This research did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public, commercial, or not for profit sectors. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. در دهه‌های اخیر، توسعه گردشگری به‌عنوان یکی از مهم‌ترین محرک‌های رشد اقتصادی در بسیاری از کشورها شناخته‌شده است. اما گسترش فعالیت‌های آن می‌تواند پیامدهایی از جمله افزایش مصرف منابع، تولید پسماند و انتشار آلاینده‌ها به همراه داشته باشد. هدف از این تحقیق، پیش‌بینی اثرات توسعه گردشگری بر انتشار آلودگی‌های محیطی در کشورهای برتر مقصد گردشگری است. از داده‌های پایگاه‌های بانک جهانی و شبکه جهانی ردپای اکولوژیکی برای این پژوهش استفاده‌شده است.‌ بازه زمانی این تحقیق طی 8 سال گذشته (2010-2017) در نظر گرفته‌شده است. برای تحلیل داده‌ها از مدل‌های رگرسیون جریمه‌شده (رگرسیون خطی، ریچ، لاسو و الاستیک نت) استفاده شد. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان داد که میزان انتشار آلودگی محیطی در کشورهای در کشورهای چین، مکزیک و تایلند برابر با 46/2، 946/0 و 857/0 و میانگین CO2 در کشور ایالات‌متحده آمریکا و چین برابر با 0.74336 و 0.21523 است. نتایج MSE و R2 نشان داد که مدل لاسو از سایر مدل‌های رقیب بهتر عمل کرده است. در این مدل مقدار شاخص PM2.5 برابر 014/1 و در شاخص CO2 برابر با 726/0 است. همچنین بر اساس نتایج، بهبود جزئی در عملکرد مدل‌های جریمه‌شده به رگرسیون خطی مشاهده شد. مقایسه مدل‌ها نشان می‌دهد که در مدل ریج و الاستیک نت شاخص‌های بیشتری نسبت به لاسو انتخاب شدند، اما لاسو عملکرد پیش‌بینی بهتری نسبت به دیگر مدل‌ها در انتشار آلودگی‌های محیطی (PM2.5, CO2) دارد. نتایج نشان داد که مدل‌های جریمه‌شده ابزارهای مفیدی هستند که می‌تواند کارکرد قابل‌توجهی در دقت و پیش‌بینی متغیرهای توسعه گردشگری بر انتشار آلودگی محیطی کشورهای موردمطالعه ارائه دهند.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106899_9e298657d50eeb150e83b90559c35938.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 17 Analysis and Explanation of Rural Settlements’ Resilience Before and after their Transformation into Cities: A case study the Villages of Bardarashah and Oraman in Kurdistan Province تحلیل و تبیین وضعیت تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های روستایی در دو دوره قبل و بعد از تبدیل‌شدن به شهر مطالعه موردی: روستاهای برده‌رشه و اورامان در استان کردستان 39 57 106925 10.22059/jhgr.2026.385473.1008842 FA سعدی محمدی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران فرزاد ویسی گروه ژئومورفولوژی، دانشکده منابع طبیعی، دانشگاه کردستان، سنندج، ایران کیومرث خداپناه گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران افشین سفاهیان گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران امید کهنه پوشی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده حقوق و علوم اجتماعی، دانشگاه پیام نور، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 11 ABSTRACT The present research was conducted with the aim of analyzing the impact of this change on the resilience level of the settlements of Uraman and Bardarashah in Kurdistan province. This study is applied in nature and employs a descriptive-analytical approach. Data were collected through library and field studies. The statistical population consisted of 951 households, from which 250 household heads were selected as the sample based on Cochran's formula. Data analysis was performed using Wilcoxon, paired t-test, one-way ANOVA, and Friedman statistical tests.The results of the paired t-test showed that the overall mean resilience increased from 2.94 to 3.25, which is statistically significant. The greatest increase was related to the economic dimension (0.39 units), indicating the positive impact of urbanization on job opportunities and income. The results of ANOVA and Tukey's test indicated a significant difference among the various resilience dimensions, particularly between the economic and social dimensions. The ranking of variables using the Friedman test also revealed that factors such as allocated budget and access to energy experienced the most improvement, whereas access to credit services saw the least enhancement.In general, the policy of converting villages into cities has had a positive and significant impact on increasing the resilience of the studied settlements; however, this improvement has not been uniform across all dimensions, with economic, institutional, and physical-environmental dimensions showing greater progress compared to the social dimension. Extended Abstract Introduction In recent decades, the concept of resilience has emerged as one of the central themes in the planning and development of human settlements. The focus of policymakers and planners has gradually shifted from the traditional approach of assessing and measuring vulnerability toward enhancing resilience. Resilience refers to the capacity of a settlement to prevent crises, withstand shocks, and recover effectively after disruption. Thus, resilience is not only regarded as a mechanism to reduce vulnerability but also as a pathway to sustainable development. Rural areas, due to structural weaknesses in their economic systems, financial limitations, dependence on traditional livelihood activities, and insufficient institutional infrastructure, have long been considered among the most vulnerable geographic spaces in developing countries, including Iran. To address these challenges, one of the policy measures pursued in the Iranian planning system over the past two decades has been the transformation of eligible villages into towns or small cities. The underlying assumption is that this transformation enhances administrative status, improves access to financial and infrastructural resources, and ultimately strengthens the resilience of the newly urbanized settlements. Such settlements are also expected to serve as regional development hubs. However, the fundamental question remains: -Does this transformation actually increase resilience, and if so, in which dimensions is improvement most evident, and in which areas do weaknesses persist? Methodology The research is applied in nature and employs a descriptive–analytical approach. In the theoretical section, documentary methods were used to review literature on resilience, its conceptual foundations, and comparable international experiences. In the empirical section, field-based methods including structured interviews, direct observations, and questionnaire surveys were utilized. The statistical population comprised 951 households across the two settlements. Using Cochran’s formula, a sample size of 250 household heads was determined, and questionnaires were distributed proportionally and randomly across both locations. Data analysis employed a set of inferential statistical tests, including paired-sample t-tests, one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey’s post-hoc test, and Friedman’s ranking test. These methods allowed for a robust comparison of resilience levels across different dimensions and between the two periods of pre- and post-transformation. Results and Discussion The findings indicate that the village-to-city conversion policy has led to a significant positive improvement in the overall resilience of the studied settlements. The mean resilience score increased from 2.94 in the pre-conversion period to 3.25 in the post-conversion period, a change that is statistically highly significant. However, the degree of improvement across the four resilience dimensions was not uniform, revealing a heterogeneous pattern. The economic dimension experienced the most substantial progress, with an increase of 0.39 units. This enhancement is primarily attributed to the creation of new job opportunities (especially in border trade and tourism), diversification of livelihood activities, and increased household income. The institutional and physical-environmental dimensions also showed considerable growth, with increases of 0.38 and 0.32 units, respectively, evident in indicators such as increased local budgets, more accountable urban management, improved road networks, access to energy, and health services. In contrast, the social dimension showed the least improvement (an increase of 0.14 units), and comparative analysis (Tukey test) confirmed its status is significantly lower than the other three dimensions. The ranking of variables using the Friedman test further revealed that infrastructure and budget-related variables (e.g., allocated budget and access to energy) improved the most, while variables related to institutions and social capital (e.g., access to credit services and administrative institutions) improved the least. These findings suggest that the policy has been more successful in strengthening the "hard" aspects of development (infrastructure and economy) than the soft aspects (inclusive institutions, social capital, and participation). Conclusion This research demonstrates that the village-to-city conversion policy, as a structural intervention, can enhance settlement resilience by mobilizing resources and elevating administrative status. However, the unbalanced improvement across different dimensions, particularly the notable advancement of economic and physical aspects compared to the social dimension, constitutes a significant weakness that may affect the long-term sustainability of these achievements. Sustainable resilience requires a comprehensive and integrated approach where strengthening efficient local institutions, facilitating community access to financial resources, and consolidating social capital and public participation mechanisms are placed at the core of planning, alongside physical and economic development. Therefore, it is recommended that future policymaking move beyond a sole focus on physical and quantitative indicators. By designing institutional and social empowerment programs, the necessary foundation for achieving comprehensive resilience and enduring stability in the face of crises can be established. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. در ایران، تبدیل برخی نواحی روستایی به شهر به‌عنوان بخشی از سیاست‌های توسعه و ساماندهی سکونتگاه‌ها انجام‌شده است؛ اقدامی که برای تقویت توان سکونتگاه‌ها در مواجهه با بحران‌ها موردتوجه قرار گرفته است. در این راستا پژوهش حاضر با هدف تحلیل تأثیر این تغییر بر سطح تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های اورامان و برده‌رشه در استان کردستان انجام‌شده است. این مطالعه از نوع کاربردی و با رویکرد توصیفی-تحلیلی است. داده‌ها از طریق مطالعات کتابخانه‌ای و میدانی جمع‌آوری شد. جامعه آماری شامل ۹۵۱ خانوار است که بر اساس فرمول کوکران، ۲۵۰ سرپرست خانوار به‌عنوان نمونه انتخاب شدند. تحلیل داده‌ها با استفاده از آزمون‌های آماری ویلکاکسون، تی زوجی، تحلیل واریانس یک‌طرفه و فریدمن انجام گرفت. نتایج آزمون تی زوجی نشان داد که میانگین کلی تاب‌آوری از ۹۴/۲ به ۲۵/۳ افزایش‌یافته که این بهبود از نظر آماری معنادار است. بیشترین افزایش مربوط به بعد اقتصادی (۳۹/۰ واحد) بود که نشان‌دهنده تأثیر مثبت شهر شدن بر فرصت‌های شغلی و درآمدی است. نتایج آزمون تحلیل واریانس و توکی حاکی از تفاوت معنادار بین ابعاد مختلف تاب‌آوری، به‌ویژه بین ابعاد اقتصادی و اجتماعی بود. رتبه‌بندی متغیرها با آزمون فریدمن نیز نشان داد که عواملی مانند بودجه اختصاصی و دسترسی به انرژی بیشترین بهبود را داشته‌اند، درحالی‌که دسترسی به خدمات اعتباری کمترین ارتقا را تجربه کرده است. در مجموع، سیاست تبدیل روستا به شهر تأثیر مثبت و معناداری بر افزایش تاب‌آوری سکونتگاه‌های موردمطالعه داشته است؛ اما این بهبود در تمام ابعاد یکسان نبوده و ابعاد اقتصادی، نهادی و کالبدی-محیطی نسبت به بعد اجتماعی پیشرفت بیشتری داشته‌اند.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106925_c26200392e239bb4f2746bbb066f2c50.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 17 The Reflection of Iran-Afghanistan Hydropolitical Relations in the Helmand Basin on the Water Security of Chahnimeh Reservoirs بازتاب مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه آبریز هیرمند بر امنیت آب چاه نیمه‌ها 59 76 106926 10.22059/jhgr.2026.398879.1008820 FA مراد کاویانی راد گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران جواد غلامی گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران زکیه آفتابی گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشکده علوم جغرافیایی، دانشگاه خوارزمی، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 11 ABSTRACT The water resources crisis in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly within shared river basins, represents one of the most significant geopolitical and security challenges at the regional level. The Helmand River Basin, as the primary source of water supply for the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs and the Hamoun Wetlands, constitutes the focal point of water-related tensions between Iran and Afghanistan. The continuation of these tensions may lead to extensive environmental, economic, and social consequences for eastern Iran. The importance of this issue lies in the fact that the reduction of inflows from Afghanistan has not only threatened the livelihoods of local communities but has also challenged environmental sustainability and human security in the region. The purpose of this study is to explain the mechanisms affecting the water security of the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs within the theoretical framework of hydro-hegemony and the interaction spectrum model in Iran–Afghanistan water relations. In terms of objective, the research is applied, and in terms of nature, it is descriptive–analytical and survey-based. Research data were collected using the Delphi method and expert opinions in the fields of water resources and geopolitics, and were analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the scenario analysis indicate that the future of water security in the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs depends on the combination of these key variables and can be anticipated under three general conditions: a conflict scenario accompanied by declining water security, a fragile equilibrium scenario, and a sustainable cooperation scenario leading to enhanced water security. Accordingly, the findings suggest that strengthening multi-level water governance, restoring the Hamoun Wetlands, and increasing institutional transparency in the management of shared resources are the most effective strategies for enhancing the water security of the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs and facilitating a transition from conflict to sustainable cooperation between the two countries. Extended Abstract Introduction Water has emerged as one of the most strategic and contested resources of the 21st century, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where transboundary river basins often become focal points of geopolitical and security tensions. The Helmand River Basin, shared by Iran and Afghanistan, is a critical case of hydropolitical relations that directly affects the water security of the Sistan region in eastern Iran. This basin serves as the primary water source for the Chahnimeh reservoirs and the Hamoun Wetlands, which are vital for drinking water, agriculture, and ecological stability in Iran’s Sistan region. Over recent decades, unilateral water infrastructure projects in Afghanistan—most notably the Kamal Khan Dam—combined with climatic changes and inefficient transboundary water governance, have significantly reduced water flows into Iran. This reduction has not only threatened local livelihoods but also challenged environmental sustainability and human security in the region. The growing imbalance in water allocation and the absence of effective cooperative mechanisms have turned the Helmand Basin into a hotspot for potential conflict, with direct implications for Iran’s national and border security. Methodology This study employs a mixed-method, descriptive-analytical, and survey-based approach within the applied research framework. The theoretical foundation integrates the concepts of hydro-hegemony and the interaction spectrum model to examine power asymmetries and cooperation–conflict dynamics in Iran–Afghanistan water relations. Data collection was conducted through library research, field studies, and the Delphi method, engaging experts in water resources and geopolitics. Initially, 47 variables influencing the water security of the Chahnimeh reservoirs were identified across six dimensions: geopolitical, security, environmental, economic, social, and cultural. These variables were analyzed using structural analysis with Micmac software to determine influence–dependence relationships and identify key driving variables. Subsequently, Scenario Wizard software was utilized for foresight-based scenario planning. The states of the key variables were defined, ranging from worst-case to ideal conditions, leading to the generation and analysis of over 4,500 possible future scenarios. This two-stage analytical process enabled the identification of core variables and the construction of consistent and plausible future pathways for water security in the region. Results and discussion The structural analysis using Micmac identified eight key variables with high influence and controllability as (1) Iran’s dependency on the Helmand headwaters in Afghanistan, (2) the border proximity and security vulnerability of the Chahnimeh reservoirs, (3) the impact of Afghanistan’s water policies on Iran’s water security, (4) the economic potential of the Hamoun wetlands, (5) the role of local communities in water resource management, (6) public awareness of hydropolitical issues, (7) the influence of cross-border ethnic ties on water cooperation, and (8) the effect of ethnic conflicts in Afghanistan on its water policies. These variables form the core determinants of water security in the Sistan region. Scenario analysis revealed three general future conditions: a conflict scenario with declining water security, a fragile equilibrium scenario, and a sustainable cooperation scenario leading to enhanced water security. The most probable and internally consistent scenario was identified as a critical crisis scenario. This scenario arises from the convergence of negative trends: continued unilateral dam construction and water diversion by Afghanistan, severe depletion of the Hamoun wetlands, reduced and unreliable water inflows into the Chahnimeh reservoirs, high vulnerability of water infrastructure due to border proximity, political and ethnic fragmentation in Afghanistan hindering transboundary cooperation, low public awareness in Iran, and weak institutional resilience. Under this crisis scenario, the Chahnimeh reservoirs face operational failure, local agricultural and economic systems collapse, environmental migration intensifies, and geopolitical tensions escalate. The feedback loops between hydrological scarcity, ecological degradation, and socio-political instability create a comprehensive threat to human and national security in eastern Iran. Conclusion The analysis underscores that the Helmand basin’s water conflict is not merely about resource scarcity, but a deeper governance and geopolitical challenge. To avoid the crisis scenario and transition toward resilience, three policy tracks are recommended: Active Transboundary Water Diplomacy Enforcing the 1973 Helmand Treaty with international oversight; Engaging institutions like UNESCO, the World Bank, or the ILC for mediation; Creating new bilateral frameworks based on mutual water benefits. Infrastructure and Institutional Resilience Rehabilitating water transfer systems and storage in Chahnimeh; Investing in water recycling and desalination technologies; Revitalizing Hamoun wetlands as an ecological-economic driver. Social and Community Empowerment Raising public awareness of water geopolitics; Involving local communities in participatory water governance; Leveraging cultural-ethnic linkages for regional cooperation. This research concludes that water security in Sistan is inseparable from cross-border political stability, ecological sustainability, and participatory governance. Without holistic and forward-looking interventions, the region faces not only a water crisis but a multi-dimensional collapse in security, development, and social cohesion. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this p بحران منابع آب در مناطق خشک و نیمه‌خشک، به‌ویژه در حوضه‌های آبریز مشترک، از مهم‌ترین چالش‌های ژئوپلیتیکی و امنیتی منطقه‌ای به شمار می‌رود. حوضة آبریز هیرمند، به‌عنوان اصلی‌ترین منبع تغذیة چاه نیمه‌ها و تالاب هامون، کانون تنش‌های آبی میان ایران و افغانستان است که استمرار آن می‌تواند پیامدهای زیست‌محیطی، اقتصادی و اجتماعی گسترده‌ای برای شرق ایران به همراه داشته باشد. اهمیت این موضوع ازآن‌جهت است که کاهش جریان‌های ورودی از افغانستان، نه‌تنها معیشت جوامع محلی را تهدید کرده، بلکه پایداری زیست‌محیطی و امنیت انسانی منطقه را نیز با چالش مواجه ساخته است. هدف این پژوهش تبیین سازوکارهای مؤثر بر امنیت آب چاه نیمه‌ها در چارچوب نظریة هیدروهژمونی و مدل طیف تعامل در روابط آبی ایران و افغانستان است. پژوهش حاضر از نظر هدف، کاربردی و از نظر ماهیت، توصیفی - تحلیلی و پیمایشی است. داده‌های تحقیق با بهره‌گیری از روش دلفی و نظر خبرگان منتخب در حوزة منابع آب و ژئوپلیتیک گردآوری و با استفاده از نرم‌افزارهای Micmac و Scenario Wizard مورد تجزیه‌وتحلیل قرار گرفت. نتایج تحلیل سناریویی نشان داد که آیندة امنیت آب چاه نیمه‌ها تابعی از ترکیب این متغیرهای کلیدی است و در سه وضعیت کلی شامل سناریوی تعارض و کاهش امنیت آبی، سناریوی تعادل شکننده و سناریوی همکاری پایدار و تقویت امنیت آبی قابل پیش‌بینی است. بر این اساس، یافته‌ها بیانگر آن است که تقویت حکمرانی چند سطحی آب، بازسازی تالاب هامون، و افزایش شفافیت نهادی در مدیریت منابع مشترک، مؤثرترین راهبردها برای ارتقای امنیت آب چاه نیمه‌ها و گذار از وضعیت تعارض به همکاری پایدار میان دو کشور محسوب می‌شوند.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106926_bfc278f55e39eddb804d7ba7d46f709e.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 18 Feasibility Study of Ecological Corridor Design in Tabriz Metropolitan: A case study of Dokamal Street Route امکان‌سنجی طراحی کریدور اکولوژیک در کلان‌شهر تبریز مطالعه موردی: مسیر خیابان دوکمال 77 96 106971 10.22059/jhgr.2026.387137.1008772 FA حسن محمودزاده گروه برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران فیروز جعفری گروه برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران الناز اسدیان گروه برنامه‌ریزی شهری و منطقه‌ای، دانشکده برنامه‌ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 12 ABSTRACT Today, the development of cities without considering ecological processes has led to the destruction of communities and ecological processes and the reduction of environmental quality, which ecological design provides the possibility of restoring and improving the ecological functions of the urban landscape. Focusing on identifying and strengthening ecological paths can lead to the growth and promotion of diverse ecosystem services. Therefore, the aim of this research is to design an ecological corridor along Dokamal Street in Tabriz metropolitan. In this study, GIS and Envi, Fragstats and TerrSet software were used to analyze the data. In this study, the landscape of Tabriz city was first evaluated over the past three decades and land use maps were prepared for the years (2003 and 2023) to compare them and examine the trend of changes. This trend was also examined in more detail by quantifying landscape metrics using the Fragstats software. The results showed that based on the Attrition index, 30.55 hectares of land, 89.75 hectares in the Creation index, and 15.74 hectares in the Dissection index, have experienced changes that indicate landscape fragmentation. The results also showed that, based on the Cohesion Index, built-up areas have the highest cohesion among the land cover within the Dokamal Street area. Considering the availability of wasteland around Dokamal Street, a feasibility study was conducted using TerrSet's Corridor Planning software to design a 3.6 km long, circular ecological path with an area of 8 hectares, which, if implemented, could partially compensate for this disruption. Extended Abstract Introduction Today, the development of cities without considering ecological processes has led to the destruction of ecological processes and a decrease in the quality of life in the urban environment. Ecological design provides the possibility of restoring and improving the ecological functions of the urban landscape. Urban green corridors are essential both as a chain that connects urban green areas and as arteries to strengthen and maintain urban ecosystem services. Focusing on identifying and strengthening these routes can lead to the growth and promotion of diverse ecosystem services. Reducing urban heat islands, cleaning the air and absorbing and sequestering carbon, reducing the risk of urban flooding, and reducing noise pollution are the major benefits of strengthening these green corridors. Ecological corridors are designed to increase human exchanges between habitats, promote genetic exchanges, and reduce population circulation. Therefore, the purpose of this research is to design an ecological corridor along Dokamal Street in Tabriz metropolitan Methodology The present research is descriptive-analytical in terms of method and has a developmental-applied nature. The required information was collected using library, documentary, electronic resources, surveys and field observations. During the different stages of the research, various software such as Fragstats, TerrSeet, ArcGIS, Envi, Google Earth were used. In this research, Fragstats 4.2 software was used to measure landscape metrics and analyze urban landscape continuity, Google Earth Professional software was used to correct existing land use boundaries, collection obstacles, and update existing changes and maps, and to display obstacles in real time on the landscape, ENVI 5.3 software was used to combine bands, process and classify satellite images, and ArcGIS 10.5 was used to prepare maps and analyze data from other software. Also, in this research, supervised classification and maximum likelihood algorithm were used to classify the lands, and connectivity indices were also used to evaluate the continuity of the landscape, and finally, the Corridor Planning model was used to determine the optimal corridors. In general, the following steps were taken in this research: 1-Collecting resources, library and field studies 2-Obtaining satellite images for the target area during two time periods (2003-2023) 3-Performing pre-processing operations, classifying the images, and finally preparing land use maps 4-Performing post-processing operations and assessing the accuracy of the classification and analyzing the changes that occurred 5- Selecting landscape metrics to quantify and calculate the desired metrics 6-Detecting and analyzing changes using the calculated metrics 7-Analyzing and evaluating the continuity of the landscape of Dokamal Street in the current state 8-Drawing optimal minimum cost round-trip routes to improve the continuity of Dokamal Street based on the concepts of graph and minimum cost Results and discussion The findings showed that in the CA and PLAND (land use area and percentage) indices, built-up patches have increased during these two decades, from 45 hectares in 2003 to 88 hectares in 2023, while the rest of the land uses have also decreased. In the NP (number of patches) index, the built-up land classes, green space, and river have experienced an increase in the number of patches between 2003 and 2023, indicating that the existing patches have become fragmented over time and have lost their coherence and integrity. In the ED (patches edge density) index, built-up land uses, green space, and rivers have significantly lost their continuity and become more granular in the case of Do Kamal Street in Tabriz. The increase in urbanization and the growth of more than 94% of the area of built-up areas over the past 20 years have caused the destruction of ecological spaces and, as a result, the fragmentation of green lands and are considered the main factor in the fragmentation of the urban landscape of Dokamal Street in Tabriz. In this measure, built-up land, agriculture, gardens, and green spaces have changed the most and have become more discrete and fine-grained than in previous periods. In the LSI (edge density) measure, the shape of the landscape has had an increasing trend, and overall, this increase indicates that the shape of the landscape of Dokamal Street, Tabriz, has moved towards becoming more complex and geometrically irregular in terms of green lands. In the LPI index, the use of barren lands and green spaces has decreased, but the use of built-up lands and rivers has increased due to the construction of continuous and integrated lands. Qualitative analysis of changes during the period 2003-2023 showed that changes of Attrition, Creation and Dissection occurred. Mainly barren land uses and green spaces have undergone Attrition (i.e. the number and area of patches have decreased). Built-up land uses have mainly undergone Creation (i.e. the number and area of patches have increased). Green space land uses have mainly undergone Dissection (i.e. the number of patches has increased while their area has decreased). Conclusion The results showed that the use of built-up land had the largest area changes during this period and has expanded by 43 hectares, equivalent to 94%, which indicates the intensity of construction. Green spaces have decreased by about 14 hectares, equivalent to 43%, and barren lands, equivalent to 31 hectares, equivalent to 50% of the area's barren lands, have been destroyed and converted to other uses over the past 20 years. The waterways of the Mehran River have also been completely concreted along the route and have been removed from their natural shape by human manipulation. The changes made are mainly of the construction type, and the destroyed lands, especially in the area of Dokamal Street, have been converted into buildings and urban roads. Qualitative analysis of changes also showed that in the Attrition index, 30.55 hectares of land, in the Creation index, 89.75 hectares, and in the Dissection index, 15.74 hectares have experienced these changes, which indicates the fragmentation of the landscape. The results showed that in the Cohesion index, built-up lands have the highest cohesion among the land cover within the area of Dokamal Street. Considering the availability of wasteland around Dokamal Street, a feasibility study was conducted using TerrSet Corridor Planning software to design a 3.6 km long, circular, and connected ecological path with an area of 8 hectares, which, if implemented, could partially compensate for this disruption. These lands are the only potential opportunities for creating a green network on Dokamal Street in Tabriz; therefore, their protection should be prioritized. Because this ecological corridor can be connected to its main core, Baghmisheh Park. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. امروزه توسعه شهرها بدون در نظر گرفتن فرآیندهای اکولوژیکی منجر به نابودی جوامع و فرآیندهای اکولوژیکی و کاهش کیفیت محیط‌زیست شده است که طراحی اکولوژیکی، امکان بازسازی و بهبود عملکردهای اکولوژیکی منظر شهری را فراهم می‌کند. تمرکز بر شناسایی و تقویت مسیرهای اکولوژیکی می‌تواند به رشد و ارتقای خدمات اکوسیستمی متنوع منجر شود. ازاین‌رو هدف این پژوهش طراحی کریدور اکولوژیکی مسیر خیابان دوکمال کلان‌شهر تبریز می‌باشد. در این پژوهش برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها از GIS و نرم‌افزارهای Envi، Fragstats و TerrSet استفاده‌شده است. در این پژوهش ابتدا سیمای سرزمین شهر تبریز در طول سه دهه گذشته مورد ارزیابی قرار گرفت و نقشه‌های کاربری اراضی برای سال‌های (2003 و 2023) تهیه گردید تا با مقایسه آن‌ها روند تغییر و تحولات بررسی گردد. همچنین با کمی سازی متریک‌های سیمای سرزمین توسط نرم‌افزار Fragstats این روند به‌صورت جزئی‌تر مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. نتایج نشان داد بر اساس شاخص Attrition، 55/30 هکتار از اراضی، در شاخص Creation، 75/89 هکتار و در شاخص Dissection، 74/15 هکتار تغییراتی را تجربه کرده‌اند که نشان ازهم‌گسیختگی سیمای سرزمین دارد. همچنین نتایج نشان داد بر اساس شاخص Cohesion، اراضی ساخته‌شده بیشترین پیوستگی را در بین پوشش اراضی در محدوده خیابان دوکمال دارند. با توجه به در دسترس بودن اراضی بایر اطراف خیابان دوکمال با استفاده از Corridor Planning نرم‌افزار TerrSet، امکان‌سنجی طراحی مسیر اکولوژیک به طول 6/3 کیلومتر به‌صورت حلقوی و به مساحت 8 هکتار انجام شد که در صورت اجرا می‌تواند این گسیختگی را تا حدودی جبران کند.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106971_e855fc994e9d0faa96acad58c94b31e6.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 18 The Position of Geopolitical Actors and Conflicting Interests in Syria جایگاه بازیگران ژئوپلیتیکی و منافع متعارض در سوریه 97 114 106972 10.22059/jhgr.2026.386073.1008763 FA امید ریگی گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران عز ت الله عزتی گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد علوم و تحقیقات، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، تهران، ایران اعظم یوسفی گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، واحد ساوه، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، ساوه، ایران محمدرضا حافظ‌نیا گروه جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس، تهران، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 12 ABSTRACT Over many years, changes in one global region have had a direct and vital impact on other regions of the world, particularly neighbouring areas. One of the most prominent examples of such effects emerged following the Arab Uprisings in West Asia and North Africa, which subsequently spilled over into Syria. The developments in Syria have not only altered the country's political situation but have also had significant influences on the geopolitical and geostrategic domains of the West Asian region, drawing considerable attention among regional and extra-regional actors. Consequently, the Syrian conflict has come to be recognised as one of the most complex geopolitical issues in West Asia, leading to the exacerbation of numerous problems, including the multiple interventions of regional and extra-regional actors in Syria's domestic politics. Thus, efforts to change the political system in Syria have had a profound impact on the trajectory of the internal crisis and the emergence of armed groups such as ISIS and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS). Therefore, this study seeks to examine the geopolitical interests of actors involved in the Syrian crisis using descriptive and analytical methods, and to analyse how the effects of this crisis and the conflicting interests of the actors have led to the intensification of the conflict. Accordingly, the present research suggests that the crisis, originating from its internal roots in 2011, has transformed into a multifaceted conflict through the intervention of domestic and international actors, with each actor playing a role based on its specific geopolitical interests, thereby exacerbating the crisis. Extended Abstract Introduction With the beginning of the Syrian crisis, the country has transformed from a political unit into a multi-level competition arena, and “domestic, regional and trans-regional” actors have become interventionist. The characteristics of the crisis include the multi-layered nature of the conflict levels, such as “ethnic, sectarian, ideological and political” conflicts within the country, and secondly, the increasing intervention of foreign powers, each of which, by supporting proxy actors, seeks to secure its own geopolitical interests. The Syrian crisis has become a paradoxical situation; on the one hand, the country has become a fragile unit in the regional order, whose sovereignty and territorial integrity have been under constant threat since the fall of Bashar al-Assad, and on the other hand, it has become a global geopolitical focal point as an arena for competition between multiple actors. The interests of the actors in Syria cannot be separated; rather, they are interconnected in a complex matrix. These conflicting interests are defined based on the perceived threats by each actor and the opportunities available in the Syrian geopolitical space. Methodology The present study is of the "descriptive and analytical" type, and its main goal is to analyze the position of geopolitical actors in Syria and explain their conflicting interests. Therefore, the present study is based on the explanation and analytical understanding of complex power relations in the post-Assad space. Data collection is based on the library method and utilizes secondary sources. The research data were primarily extracted through the study of documents, books, scientific articles, and other relevant sources. In data analysis, an attempt has been made to extract the behavioral patterns of actors and the internal logic of their geopolitical policies in Syria through the theoretical frameworks available in geopolitical and international relations studies, such as the theory of "realism, critical geopolitics, and narrative analysis." Results and discussion The fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime can be interpreted as a turning point in the transfer of power and a change in the geopolitical balance between regional and trans-regional actors. Despite its efforts to maintain its influence in Syria through institutional and security ties with the remnants of the government and militias, the Islamic Republic of Iran is gradually facing strategic constraints resulting from US pressure, the Turkish military presence, and continuous Israeli attacks. The distinction of the present study is based on examining the post-crisis phase and the fall of the Assad regime, which analyzes the transformation in the power structure, the emergence of new actors, and the redefinition of power relations within the framework of the government of “Ahmad al-Sharaa.” While previous studies have mainly focused on analyzing the war period and the role of actors in the continuation of the crisis, this study shows that after the fall of Assad, the type of competition has changed from military to “political, economic, and symbolic” and Syria has become an area of complex geopolitical interactions at the regional level. The innovation of the present study lies in simultaneously explaining the intersecting links of interests and geopolitical conflicts during the reconstruction phase of Syria, a phase in which no actor can control the power structure alone and is still forced into competitive coexistence. Conclusion With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime and the coming to power of a new government in Syria, a new page in Syria’s geopolitical equations has been opened. The Islamic Republic of Iran, which was a prominent player in the “political and military” arena during the Assad era, is now facing serious obstacles due to continuous Israeli attacks and the blocking of land and air routes by the United States, and its influence has decreased significantly. In contrast, Russia, which has maintained its military bases in Syria, is trying to consolidate its positions with the new government. The Turkish government, which was one of the supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s opponents, is trying to maintain its position in the northern regions of Syria and prevent the formation of a Kurdish-dominated region near its borders. Saudi Arabia and some Gulf countries, which played an active role in supporting the opposition, are realistically seeking to rebuild diplomatic relations with the new Damascus so as not to fall behind in the geopolitical competition with “Iran and Turkey” in Syria. The United States, which exercises some of its influence through its support for Kurdish forces in northeastern Syria, has been monitoring developments in the new government, and its policy is likely to be aimed at containing Iranian influence and gradually rebuilding the Syrian political environment. During the Assad era, the European Union emphasized diplomatic isolation of Damascus and economic sanctions, and is working to rebuild and review its policy towards the government of Ahmed al-Sharaa within the framework of humanitarian interests. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. در طول سالیان متمادی، تغییرات در یک ناحیه جهانی بر روی سایر نواحی جهان به‌ویژه نواحی مجاور آن، تأثیر مستقیم و حیاتی داشته است. یکی از نمونه‌های بارز این تأثیرات، پس از بیداری اسلامی در غرب آسیا و شمال آفریقا به کشور سوریه سرازیر شده است. تحولات در سوریه، نه‌تنها اوضاع سیاسی این کشور را دستخوش تغییراتی نموده است، بلکه؛ تأثیرات قابل‌توجهی بر حوزه‌های ژئوپلیتیک و ژئواستراتژیک منطقه غرب آسیا داشته و در میان بازیگران منطقه‌ای و فرا منطقه‌ای، توجه ویژه‌ای را به خود معطوف ساخته است. لذا؛ تحولات سوریه به‌عنوان یکی از پیچیده‌ترین مسائل ژئوپلیتیک در منطقه غرب آسیا شناخته‌شده و منجر به تشدید مسائل متعددی از قبیل؛ مداخله‌گرائی متعدد بازیگران منطقه‌ای و فرا منطقه‌ای در سیاست‌های داخلی سوریه گردیده است. بنابراین؛ تلاش برای تغییر نظام سیاسی در سوریه، تأثیرات بسیار چشمگیری بر جریان بحران داخلی و ظهور گروه‌های مسلح «داعش و تحریرالشام» داشته است. ازاین‌رو؛ این پژوهش در تلاش است تا با استفاده از روش‌های «توصیفی و تحلیلی»، به بررسی علایق ژئوپلیتیکی بازیگران در بحران سوریه پرداخته و تحلیل نماید که چگونه تأثیرات این بحران و منافع متضاد بازیگران به تشدید منازعه منجر شده است. بنابراین، پژوهش فعلی حاکی از آن است که این بحران از منشأ درونی خود در سال ۲۰۱۱ شروع‌شده و با مداخله‌گری بازیگران داخلی و بین‌المللی به یک منازعه چندجانبه تبدیل گشته است و هر یک از این بازیگران بر اساس علایق ژئوپلیتیکی خاص خود نقش‌آفرینی نموده که سبب تشدید بحران شده است

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106972_16f82a04542091b1c349fd4ee3b2d81e.pdf

دانشگاه تهران پژوهشهای جغرافیای انسانی 2008-6296 58 2 2026 05 19 Geopolitical Reading of Iran-Iraq War in the Context of Islamic Revolution Discourse in Iran خوانش ژئوپلیتیکی جنگ ایران و عراق در چارچوب گفتمان انقلاب اسلامی در ایران 115 130 106973 10.22059/jhgr.2026.374408.1008681 FA احسان لشگری تفرشی گروه جغرافیا، دانشکده علوم انسانی، دانشگاه یزد، یزد، ایران Journal Article 2025 12 13 ABSTRACT With the arrival of 1979, coinciding with the rise of Arab nationalism under the ruling Ba'ath Party in Iraq and the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, military tension on the Iran-Iraq border intensified and escalated into a full-scale war (1980-1988). This research examines how the discourse components of the Islamic Revolution are interpreted within a geopolitical reading of Iraq's invasion of Iran, framed by the views of Laclau and Mouffe. Within this framework, geopolitical actions at a particular historical moment, shaped by the dominant discourse, are conceptualized and understood from an identity perspective, distinct from other discourses. In the Iranian political context, following the 1979 invasion of Iraq, the geopolitical interpretation of this crisis evolved into a conflict between three discourses: liberal nationalist, Marxist left, and Islamic revolutionary. Following the removal of Bani Sadr from the presidency in 1981 and the subsequent dominance of the Islamic Revolution discourse until 1986, the geopolitical conceptualization of the war was prioritized based on religious genealogy. Within this discourse, the borders of the Islamic world were defined based on the unity of Muslims against non-believers. This discourse did not recognize any inherent distinction between the Islamic Ummah and nation-states, viewing all Muslims as a single political and religious unit. Additionally, given the anti-Western bias within the discourse of political Islam, the geopolitical interpretation of the war was doubly reinforced by the conflict between Islamic and polytheistic territories. So, the Ba'ath government in Iraq was considered as a Western government puppet in order to weaken the Islamic revolution ideals and true Islam. Extended Abstract Introduction War, a complex social reality, is often framed as an objective conflict over material issues such as territory. However, each political-historical force uses language to construct a specific narrative of the war's geopolitical causes. This narrative is not a preexisting reality but rather a tool to justify its own actions. A discourse analysis of geopolitical crises investigates the interrelationships among geopolitical elements and the role of discourse in shaping public perceptions of war, often privileging certain interpretations over others. In this regard, the Iran-Iraq War of 1979 was fundamentally a clash of ideologies and discourses, rather than a mere territorial dispute. In other words, discourse played a crucial role in shaping the complex and multifaceted conflict between the two countries, which went beyond mere territorial disputes. In this regard, concurrently with the rise of Arab nationalism in Iraq and the victory of the Iranian Revolution in 1979, political-military tensions on the Iran-Iraq border escalated dramatically. On the other hand, following the 1980 Iraqi invasion of Iran, three dominant discourses emerged within Iran: Islamic revolutionary, liberal intellectual, and Marxist-influenced left. By defining a set of legitimizing factors, each of these competing discourses sought to establish its hegemony in the interpretation of war. This research aims to conduct a geopolitical reading of the Islamic Revolution discourse in Iran, which held a hegemonic position during the early years of the Iran-Iraq war (1980-1988). Within the framework of Laclau and Mouffe's discourse theory, we will examine the differences between this discourse and its competitors and investigate how the geopolitical components of the Islamic Revolution discourse contribute to the semantic construction of Iraq's invasion of Iran. Methodology This research, as a "temporal" research type, investigates, based on the discourse model of Laclau and Mouffe, the equivalence of Islamic Revolution discourse components in the semantic construction of Iraq's invasion of Iran as a geopolitical factor. In this regard, by analyzing and interpreting the texts and works of discourse commentators, the study examines how the Ba'ath Party constructs the semantics of components such as border disputes and territorial expansion. Additionally, it investigates how this war was interpreted to foster social solidarity among the Iranian people and to reject competing internal discourses. Results and discussion Following the victory of the Islamic Revolution in Iran in 1979, there was a conflict between the Islamic Revolution discourse and other discourses, including leftist discourse inclined towards Marxism and liberal nationalist discourse. With the Islamic Revolution discourse becoming dominant, the conceptualization of war was framed through a religious genealogy and reflected as a conflict between heresy (the ruling Ba'ath Party in Iraq) and true Islam (Iran). Therefore, the defense of Iran's geographical borders against Iraq was presented as a defense of the divine nature of humanity. Unlike nationalist discourse, this defense was not solely interpreted as a means to prevent the occupation of Iran's territory. By emphasizing historical metaphors from Shi'a Islam, this discourse sought to reinforce the metaphysical dimensions of the war, aligning with Shi'a mythological concepts to counter rival discourses. According to Laclau and Mouffe, invoking the past positively has been a longstanding strategy of political power to legitimize its actions, foster solidarity and harmony, and differentiate itself from competing discourses. In particular, the mythmaking surrounding the war patterns of the Prophet of Islam and Shi'a leaders, as propagated by interpreters and rulers of the Islamic Revolution discourse, played a significant role in shaping the perceived sanctity of Iran's territory against the Iraqi invasion. On the other hand, the Islamic Revolution discourse employed a strategy of general mobilization, activating and guiding social values. This strategy, which relied on geopolitical components, was legitimized under the banner of defending the borders of the Islamic nation. In this discourse, the extraction of spiritual themes such as jihad, martyrdom, and sacrifice for the Islamic Ummah led to this war being interpreted as a preservation of the Islamic Ummah's territorial integrity against the infidels. Therefore, within the political geography of the Islamic Ummah, Islamic values should extend beyond its borders, providing the foundation for the emergence of numerous centers advocating the Islamic Revolution discourse. Furthermore, by demonstrating the failure of Iraq's aggression, a geopolitical analysis of this discourse highlighted Iran's political and military efficiency. Conclusion Between 1980 and 1985, under the dominance of the political Islam discourse, a national-scale war concept was constructed to alienate liberal and Marxist discourses. This concept aimed to build social cohesion by sanctifying the territory. On a transnational scale, alienation and rejection of regional secular governments and Arab nationalism ruling in Iraq were represented in the form of conflict between Islam and disbelief. By transforming geopolitical components such as territory, borders, and the state into the 'religious', this discourse was able to frame their defense as a social responsibility. By comparing the Iran-Iraq war with the battles of the Prophet and Shi'a imams, this discourse positioned Iran's territory as the sacred geographical origin of Islam. Therefore, according to Laclau and Mouffe, by constructing a network of meanings, the Islamic Revolution discourse leveraged the Iran-Iraq war to marginalize competing discourses on both national and transnational scales. Funding There is no funding support. Authors’ Contribution Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved the content of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none. Conflict of Interest Authors declared no conflict of interest. Acknowledgments We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper. با فرارسیدن سال 1359 هم‌زمان با اوج‌گیری ناسیونالیسم عربی حزب حاکم بعث در عراق و هم‌چنین با پیروزی انقلاب اسلامی در ایران تنش نظامی در مرز ایران و عراق به‌طور چشمگیری تشدید گردید و به یک جنگ تمام‌عیار (1359- 1367) تبدیل گردید. این پژوهش ناظر بر تفسیر چگونگی مفصل‌بندی مؤلفه‌های گفتمان انقلاب اسلامی در خوانش ژئوپلیتیکی تهاجم عراق به ایران در چارچوب دیدگاه لاکلائو و موفه می‌باشد. در این چارچوب؛ کنش‌های ژئوپلیتیک در مقطعی از تاریخ به‌وسیله گفتمان حاکم مفهوم‌پردازی و از منظر هویتی در تمایز با دیگر گفتمان‌ها معنا می‌یابد. در بافتار سیاسی ایران با تهاجم عراق در سال 1359 چگونگی خوانش ژئوپلیتیکی این بحران به یک منازعه میان سه گفتمان ملی‌گرای لیبرال، چپ مارکسیستی و انقلاب اسلامی تبدیل گردید. پس از عزل بنی‌صدر از ریاست جمهوری در سال 1360 و با تفوق گفتمان انقلاب اسلامی تا 1365 مفهوم‌سازی ژئوپلیتیکی جنگ بر اساس تبارشناسی دینی و شبیه‌سازی آن با جنگ‌های پیامبر اسلام و امامان شیعه در صدر اسلام در اولویت قرار گرفت و خوانش ژئوپلیتیکی گفتمان‌های رقیب در داخل کشور کنار نهاده شد. در مقیاس فراملی نیز مرزهای جهان اسلام در چارچوب این گفتمان بر اساس اتحاد مسلمانان در برابر کفار تقسیم و مشخصاً تمایز امت اسلامی به دولت- ملت‌ها؛ اصالت نیافت. ضمن اینکه با سوگیری ضد غربی گفتمان انقلاب اسلامی خوانش ژئوپلیتیک جنگ در چارچوب معارضه دارالاسلام با دارالکفر پژواک مضاعفی یافت و دولت بعث عراق دست‌نشانده دولت‌های غربی در جهت تضعیف آرمان‌های انقلاب اسلامی و اسلام راستین قلمداد گردید.

https://jhgr.ut.ac.ir/article_106973_77d90e053adb35b7a03769c54b50c512.pdf