بررسی وتحلیل عوامل تاثیر گذار بر قیمت مسکن شهری (مطالعه موردی :شهر زنجان)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد دانشگاه تهران

2 دانشجو

چکیده

بازار مسکن از عوامل مختلفی تاثیر می پذیرد که هریک از این عوامل نقش تعیین کننده ای در عرضه وتقاضای مسکن دارند تغییرات قیمت مسکن مطابق با تورم از روند فز اینده ی خطی پیروی نمی کند. این رفتار غیرخطی با متغیرهای موثر در بازار مسکن ازقبیل نرخ رشد جمعیت ،بعد خانوار ، نسبت بین عرضه وتقاضا ،نوع تقاضا (مصرفی ،سرمایه ای )، وضعیت دیگر کالا های رقیب مسکن، رونق ورکود اقتصادی، بهای مصالح ساختمانی، هزینه های نیروی انسانی،رابطه علت و معلولی دارد. رویکرد پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی است، در این مقاله ابتدا با استفاده از مطالعات کتابخانه ای و اسنادی، به مطالعه ی پیشینه وگرد آوری مبانی نظری پژوهش در رابطه با قیمت مسکن پرداخته ودر ادامه با استفاده از روش های میدانی ،مجازی ،همچنین با مراجعه به مرکز آمار ایران اطلاعات مرتبط با متغیر های تاثیر گذار درقیمت مسکن(عرضه ،تقاضا ،قیمت ،) شهر زنجان پرداخته است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد علی رغم روند روبه رشد شاخص های مسکونی شاهد کمبود واحد های مسکونی درمقایسه با رشد خانوارها هستیم که با افزایش تقاضا برای مسکن ، قیمت ها در بازار مسکن شهر زنجان روند افزایشی داشته.ودر ادامه با افزایش قیمت مسکن باعث ورود بورس بازان وجذب سرمایه گذاری ها شاهد افزایش تقاضای سرمایه ای مسکن در شهر زنجان شدیم، که این روند درسالهای 85و90به اوج خوده رسیده است. متوسط قیمت یک متر مربع مسکن از182 هزار ریال در سال 70 به 7246در سال 90 رسیده است یعنی در این مدت بیش از 39برابر شده است .بیشترین افزایش قیمت ها در سال های 1385 تا 90همزمان با کاهش عرضه وافزایش تقاضای سرمایه ای بوده است. در مناطق مختلف شهر نیز میزان تحولات یکسان نبوده وبالاترین میزان قیمت را منطقه مرکزی شهر (سعدی وسط )داشته. ودرآخر نیز براساس یافته های تحقیق پیشنهادات واهکارهایی برای کنترل قیمت مسکن شهر زنجان ارائه گردید.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Assessing and Analyze the factors affecting urban housing price (Case Study:zanjan City)

چکیده [English]

Assessing and Analyze the factors affecting urban housing price (Case Study:zanjan City)
introduction
As the housing sector, the most interesting and the most volatile sector in recent years, especially in the housing market and the metropolises of the country has seen a significant change in Zanjan. And frequent changes in housing prices after a period of 3 to 4 years with inflation, a staircase leads to mutations. Given the large share of household income on housing costs, particularly in large urban areas (more than 50% of the total costly) households during stepwise increasing housing prices (which will be followed by increasing rent) dimensions significantly more complicated issues an encounter. On the other, about 110 have been identified and all the activities associated with the housing market, unemployment levels in many of the activities associated with this unit are employed. According to the above reasons, the government seeks to provide ways to avoid the fast increasing prices and prevent stagnation of the housing market would have adjusted Through this section. Public policy experience in this sector has experienced success and often effective policy making is not necessary. The reasons for this failure could be multiple factors in the housing market, not follow a linear structure as variables affecting it. And nonlinear relationships between variables that affect the quality of life because of the sensitivity of the households noted, Therefore, a correct analysis of the situation Understanding the macro factors affecting the housing market and the effectiveness of each of them could be responsible for the planning, analysis, and help predict the future. In this paper, we identify the factors affecting the housing market sampling and investigate the effect of each of these factors on the supply and demand situation in the housing market and knowledge (cause and effect) Zanjan mortgage is paid.

Methodology
With respect to the components of the study and the nature of the approach cross - sectional study. The investigation that led to the general recognition of the importance of these issues are. It also reviews the current situation and describe a systematic and comprehensive understanding of the phenomenon that is being studied in the space business. Therefore, in this paper, using a library of documents, background to the study and collection of theoretical research discussed in relation to the housing market, Continue in the field using punishment also refer to the Statistical Center of Iran to gather information relevant variables affecting the housing market (supply, demand, price) paid Zanjan, Lastly, according to the findings of the analysis of the housing market has been in Zanjan.
Results and discussion
Zanjan in 1345, has 9,263 residential units and 11,999 households that in 1355 the average annual growth of 5.9 and 5.6 percent, respectively, and reached 16,386 units and 20,764 households. In the period 1365-1355 the average annual growth rate of residential growth rate of 8.3 percent versus 7.6 percent, and the household was away. The growth rate was 8.3 percentage units affected by the construction of residential units in the second half of the 50s. Housing units and households in the period 1375-1365, with average growth rates of 3.4 and 3.3, respectively, have been declining. Because it can reduce the rate of population growth and stagnation in the construction of residential units in the period cited. Sampling of the various reasons have difficulty providing housing for its residents. The city's housing prices over the past few years the growing trend of severe, These factors have led many investments that should be spent on job creation in the housing transactions and profits should be drawn from it. But unlike the growth rate in the decade, the growth rate of housing prices in the city during 1370 to 1390 was equal to 23%, showing an increase of 400 percent. Since a large proportion of building materials in housing issues are assessed, along with the national currency devaluation and rising inflation, cost increased more than before In this section According to official statistics from the Union Building Branch sales and prices of construction materials, field surveys from 1378 to 1390 has had a strong growth trend. The increasing cost of construction and maintenance of housing, the housing price has increased as a result.
Conclusion
Manufactured housing developments, housing developments and comparing it with the supply of housing in the city of Zanjan show strong volatility in the period studied there. Negative growth rates in some years and some years is indicative of a sharp rise. But developments in the housing market, like other parts of the country, and especially metropolitan cities had almost stepped. Boom and bust periods after each increase, then a period of stagnation proves again the next time the step is increased. In other words, changes in the housing market with more depth, but mostly sharp swing upward and shape stepper has always been housing market developments. Examining the evolution of population, households, housing the sampling showed that despite the growing trend of these indicators is still unstable housing situation in Zanjan. Shortage of housing units compared to control expenditure growth, with increased demand for housing, prices in the housing market has increased in Zanjan. Most of the price increases in 1385 to 1390. Not the same as the rate of change in different areas, but the highest price Highest price hike metropolitan area (sadie center) is accounted for. Also according to Table (8) how to capture and analyze indicators of housing units (rental and ownership), we saw a reduction in rental property. But after 1365, with the rising cost of land to accommodate housing converting to an investment commodity prices fluctuations in Zanjan saw an increase in rental property. According to the census of 1390 saw a decline in home prices and increased volatility are the property seized.

Keywords: housing supply, housing demand, housing market, Zanjan.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • housing supply
  • housing demand
  • Housing prices
  • housing market
  • Zanjan

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 20 دی 1394
  • تاریخ دریافت: 07 آبان 1392
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 20 دی 1394
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 20 دی 1394