آینده‌نگاری برنامه‌ریزی شهر سالم با رویکرد سناریونویسی مطالعه موردی: شهر بندر ماهشهر

ABSTRACT
As the highest manifestation of human civilization, the city plays a fundamental role in creating a good life for all citizens. Nowadays, due to the importance of health among citizens, city planners propose a relatively new term called urban health, in which, while addressing the current situation and examining various issues and problems in the city and health, promoting They follow issues such as social welfare, improving the quality of life and urban health. This research aimed to identify the key factors affecting the future planning process of Salem city with the scenario writing approach in Bandar Mahshahr city and prepare probable and believable scenarios for the system's future state. Therefore, identifying key factors and favorable scenarios for the future trend of the system has been the main focus of this research. This research is developmental-applicative in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of nature. Library and field methods were used to collect the required information and data. The results show that attention to the citizen-oriented category and the use of citizens in planning and urban health, with a score of +87, shows our first scenario to reach a healthy city. Our second scenario is to pay attention to the component of life expectancy at birth, which has obtained a score of +85. The third scenario is the state of the health education program with a score of +84; the fourth scenario is the component of access to green space with a score of +83; the fifth and sixth scenarios are the state of health, health, and the sense of belonging to the place with a score of +82.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
As the highest manifestation of human civilization, the city plays a fundamental role in creating a good life for all citizens. All human activities are closely related to the quality of life, health, and wellness. Therefore, the health of the city depends on having a healthy environment and suitable social, economic, cultural, environmental, aesthetic, educational, scientific, political, psychological, health, sports, etc. platforms, which the citizens are the main pillar and capital of this city. The project of healthy cities is implemented in disadvantaged, immigrant-friendly areas and areas with socio-economic problems. One of the deprived areas of Iran, which has not received serious attention in terms of urban health and its indicators due to its distance from the center and its location in the border region, is the city of Bandar Mahshahr.
 
Methodology
This research is developmental-applicative in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of nature. Library and field methods were used to collect the required information and data. The data was collected using the Delphi method and analyzed using the cross-effects analysis method under the Mic Mac software and the scenario writing method under the Scenario Wizard software. Bandar Mahshahr municipality, the second stage of Delphi, was implemented. In this way, a questionnaire in the form of a mutual influence matrix was created for the specified factors and was given to the relevant experts to determine the extent and intensity of the influence of the factors on each other. The extent of this influence was also measured from zero to three. At this stage, the cross-effects analysis method was used using Mic Mac software to identify and extract the key factors affecting the future state of the studied system. Identifying these factors is necessary to formulate possible situations and write scenarios for the future of the Bandar Mahshahr Healthy City project. In the third stage of Delphi, possible and leading situations were defined for the key factors by asking the experts involved. Finally, in the fourth stage of the Delphi technique, a matrix of mutual effects was formed for the possible situations of the key factors. Then, this matrix was provided to the experts to measure the influence of the possible situations of the factors on each other. The results obtained from the received questionnaires were used with the help of Scenario Wizard software to formulate possible scenarios and identify desirable scenarios.
 
Results and discussion
The results of analyses and investigations after identifying the primary factors and variables affecting the future state of the system, the method of cross-effects analysis was used using Mic Mac software to extract key factors from the set of primary factors. Finally, 30 key factors with direct influence and 30 factors with indirect influence were identified based on analyses and reviews. These factors include the role of the government (as the guardian of the matter), information technology (electronic and smart infrastructure), budget, air pollution situation, pedestrian and vehicle access system in the centers of urban areas, the area of urban influence, drinking water sanitation situation, the sense of place and social relations, the level of green space, the desirability of optimal distribution of land use, the number of deaths (all ages), the structure of residential units, unemployment rate, employment status and unemployment rate in the region, social security status, per capita income, the existence of programs Health education, nutrition quality, national macro management (in all dimensions), legislation, public access to green space, availability of public welfare facilities, lack of citizen-oriented category (lack of role of citizens in urban management), lack of management stability (change and constant managerial changes), life expectancy at birth, city-level noise pollution, insurance coverage, adult literacy, managers' open politics (political factions), garbage and sewage collection. These factors play a significant role in the planning process of a healthy city.
The Scenario Wizard software analysis indicates that six plausible scenarios featuring distinct combinations of situations are expected to arise in the system's future. Fortunately, most of these scenarios are likely to be favorable and positive. In this research, we have reached 6 scenarios with high compatibility or believable scenarios that show attention to the citizen-oriented category and the use of citizens in planning and urban health with a score of +87, our first scenario to reach a healthy city. Our second scenario is to pay attention to the component of life expectancy at birth, which has obtained a score of +85. The third scenario is the status of the health education program, with a score of +84. The fourth scenario is the component of access to green space, with a score of +83. Scenarios 5 and 6 are about health status and the sense of belonging to the place, with a score of +82.
 
Conclusion
This research aimed to identify the key factors affecting the future planning process of Salem city with a scenario writing approach in the city of Bandar Mahshahr and prepare probable and believable scenarios for the system's future state. Therefore, identifying key factors and favorable scenarios for the future trend of the system has been the main focus of this research. In the final analysis, it should be said that in this research, we have reached six scenarios with high compatibility or believable scenarios that pay attention to the citizen-oriented category and the use of citizens in urban planning and health, with a score of 87, our first scenario to reach a healthy city. Our second scenario is to pay attention to the component of life expectancy at birth, which has obtained a score of 85. The third scenario is the status of the health education program, with a score of 84. The fourth scenario is the component of access to green space, with a score of 83. Scenarios 5 and 6 are about the health status of health and sense of belonging to the place, with a score of 82.
 The elements of the reported scenario constitute a complete set of mutually supporting assumptions so that they can be evaluated as internally consistent.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.