برنامه ریزی توسعۀ منطقه ای بر پایۀ روش آینده پژوهی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو نویسی سایب (مطالعۀ موردی: استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ‏ریزی شهری، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‏ ریزی شهری، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

3 دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش حاضر برنامه‏ریزی توسعة منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد بر پایةروش آینده‏پژوهی تحلیل اثرهایمتقاطع و سناریونویسی سایب است. برای تجزیه‏ و تحلیل داده‏ها از نرم‏افزارهای آینده‏پژوهیMicmac  و سناریونویسی Scenario Wizard مبتنی بر روش طوفان فکری و انگیزش ذهنی استفاده‏ شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان ‏داد نُه پیشران کلیدی ازجمله سرمایه‏گذاری، گردشگری، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص و خبره، منابع آب، شبکةراه‏ها، امنیت سرمایه‏گذاری، محصولات زراعی و کشاورزی، زیربناهای روستایی،و اشتغال از میان 32 عامل شناسایی‏شده بیشترین تأثیر را در رشد و توسعة آیندة استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد دارد. همچنین، شاخص تحقیق و توسعه، به‏عنوان عامل تنظیم‏کننده،از میان عوامل تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر رشد و توسعة استان درنظر گرفته شد. همچنین، برای ترسیم چشم‏انداز توسعة منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، پیشران‏های کلیدی به‏‏عنوان عوامل پایه و اصلی در سناریونویسی در ادامه استفاده شدند. درواقع،مجموعه وضعیت‏های محتمل این عوامل به‏شکلی شفاف راهبردها و استراتژی‏های کلیدی و سیاست‏گذاری را برای مدیران معین می‏کند. درنهایت، با تدوین 112 وضعیت، 14 سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان درنظر گرفته شد که 5/12درصد از وضعیت‏ها دارای حالت بحرانی‏اند، 75/18درصد در حالت ایستا و75/68درصد در شرایط مطلوب‏اند. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مطلوب‏ترین سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان مبتنی بر استفاده از نخبگان و متخصصان داخل استان، رشد گردشگری طبیعی، توسعة حمل‏ونقل ریلی، توجه به اشتغال‏زایی، توسعة زیربناهای روستایی و مشوق‏های سرمایه‏گذاری و امنیت، توسعة محصولات باغی، و درنهایت مدیریت بهینه و پایدار آب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis cross-impact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamidreza varsi 1
  • Hossein Hoseinikhah 2
  • MohammadReza Ghasemy 3
1 uni-isfahan
2
3 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural
production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Regional Development
  • Foresight
  • Scenario writing
  • CIB
  • Kohgiluyeh and Boyer ahmad
  1. اکرمی، علی، 1376، آینده‏شناسی و آینده‏نگاری، نشریة رهیافت، ش 16.
  2. پورمحمدی، محمدرضا؛ حسین‏زاده دلیر،کریم؛ قربانی، رسول و زالی، نادر، 1389، مهندسی مجدد فرایند برنامه‏ریزی با تأکید بر رویکرد آینده‏نگاری، مجلة جغرافیا و توسعه، ش20، صص58-37.
  3. تقی‏لو، علی‏اکبر، 1393، سناریوهای آیندة سکونتگاه‏های روستایی ایران، پژوهش و برنامه‏ریزی روستایی، س ۳، ش ۱، صص ۱۹-35.
  4. حاجیانی، ابراهیم، 1390، مبانی اصول و روش آینده‏پژوهی، دانشگاه امام صادق.
  5. دهکردی، لطف‏اله؛ شیره‏پزآرانی، علی‏اصغر و جندقیان بیدگلی، سعیدرضا، 1390، برنامه‏ریزی ناحیه‏ای با استفاده از برنامه‏ریزی بر مبنای سناریوها (تبیین الگوی چشم‏انداز ناحیة کاشان)، برنامهریزی منطقه‏ای، دورة 1، ش 3، صص ۳۹-56.
  6. رضوانی، محمدرضا و صحنه، بهمن، 1384، سنجش سطوح توسعه‏یافتگی نواحی روستایی با استفاده از روش منطق فازی (مطالعة موردی: دهستان‏های شهرستان‏های آق‏قلا و بندر ترکمن)، نشریة روستا و توسعه، دورة 8، ش 3، صص ۱-32.
  7. زالی، نادر و زمانی‏پور، مسعود، 1394، تحلیل سیستمی متغیرهای راهبردی توسعة منطقه‏ای در برنامه‏ریزی سناریو مبنا (مورد مطالعه: استان مازندران)، مجلة آمایش سرزمین، دورة ۷، ش ۱، صص ۱-28.
  8. زنگی‏آبادی، علی؛ احمدیان، مهدی؛ شاهسونی، محمدجاسم و علی‏زاده، جابر، 1392، تحلیل فضایی توسعة منطقه‏ای در استان بوشهر با بهره‏گیری تلفیقی از روش‏های تصمیم‏گیری چندمعیاره، مجلة برنامه‏ریزی منطقه‏ای، دورة 3، ش 12، صص ۱-10.
  9. طاهری دمنه، محسن و نادری خورشیدی، علی‏رضا، 1393، آینده‏نگاری منابع انسانی در نیروی انتظامی جمهوری اسلامی ایران با استفاده از روش تلفیقی سناریوپردازی و تحلیل اثرات متقاطع، فصل‏نامة منابع انسانی ناجا، دورة ۹، ش 36، صص ۲۹-50.
  10. طباطبایی، شیما، 1394، ضرورت آینده‏پژوهی در نظام آموزش پزشکی و سلامت کشور، نشریة گامهای توسعه در آینده‏پژوهی، ج 12، ش 2، ۴۳۴-435.
  11. فرجی، امین؛ نعمت‏پور، محمد و عشریه، امید، 1396، تحلیل سیستمی اثرات مثبت و منفی توسعة گردشگری ایران با رویکرد آینده‏پژوهی، دو فصل‏نامة مطالعات اجتماعی گردشگری، س ۵، ش ۹، صص ۱۵۱-189.
  12. گیلانی، مهرداد و لاریجانی، فاضل، 1380، فرایند پیش‏بینیپژوهی در ژاپن، مجلة رهیافت، ش 22.

13. Açikalin, H., 1990, At Bölgesel Politikası, Mali Araçları ve Tam Üyeliğimiz Durumunda Türkiye’ye Sağlayacağı Yararlar, ATAUM Yayınları, Ankara.

14. Agudelo-Vera, M. and Mels, R., 2011, Resource management as a key factor for sustainable urban planning, Journal of Environmental Management, Vol. 92, PP. 2295-2303.

15. Akrami, A., 1997, Futurists and foresight, Tehran, Journal of approach, Vol. 16.

16. Allan, W., 2005, Approaching scenario-based studies: three perceptions about the future and considerations for landscape planning, Environment and planning B: Planning and design, No. 32, PP. 67-87.

17. Cariola, M. and Secondo, R., 2004, Evolution in the rationales of foresight in Europe, Futuresno, No. 36, PP.1063-1075.

18. Cheng, S.; Hualin, X.  and JinfaJiang, Q., 2018, Is Urban Land Development Driven by Economic Development or Fiscal Revenue Stimuli in China, Land Use Policy, Vol. 77.

19. Dehkordi, L.; Shrepaz Arany, A. A.; Jandaqiyan Bidgoli, S. R., 2011, Based on regional planning using planning scenarios (explaining the landscape pattern Kashan area), Regional planning, Vol. 1, No. 3.

20. Devendra, K. and Umar, D., 2015, Enablers for Competitiveness of Indian Manufacturing Sector: An ISM-Fuzzy MICMAC Analysis, Procedia - Social and Behavioral Sciences, Vol. 189.

21. Erkan, H., 2000, KüreselleĢme ve Bölgesel GeliĢmedeYeni YaklaĢımlar ve GAP Örneği, Güneydoğu Anadolu Projesi-Türkiye’nin Geleceğinde GAP’ın Yeri, Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Merkez Bankası Yayını, Ankara.

22. Ewelina, R. and Marc, D., 2018, 3D reconstruction from multi-view VHR-satellite images in MicMac, ISPRS Journal of Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Vol. 139.

23. Foren, F., 2001, A Practical Guide to Regional Foresight, . Publisher: Luxembourg, European Commission, Edition 1.

24. Gilani, M. and Larijani, F., 2001, The projected research in Japan, Journal of approach, Vol. 22.

25. Glasson, P., 2008, Sustainable development concept in world literature, Urban development congress in Menschen, Germany.

26. Hajyani, I., 2011, Basic principles and methods of futures, Imam Sadiq University.

27. Kameoka, A.; Yokoo, Y. and Kuwahara, T., 2004, A Challenge of Integrating Technology Foresight and Assessment in industrial Strategy Development and Policymaking, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol.71, N. 6, PP. 579-598.

28. Kolarz, k., and  Stańczyk, k., 2019, Technology foresight for a vision of energy sector development in Poland till 2030. Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Volume 76, Issue 3, pp. 327-338.

29. Martin, R., 2015, Technology Foresight in a Rapidly Globalizing Economy, Science and Technology Policy Research, University of Sussex.

30. Nyiri, L., 2003, Foresight as a Policy-making Tool, Technology Foresight for Organizers, 8-12, December 2003, Ankara, Turkey.

31. Pour-Mohammadi, M.; Mohammad Hossein Dalir, K., GHorbani, R. and Zali, N., 2010, Re-engineering process planning approach with an emphasis on foresight, Journal of Geography and Development, No. 20.

32. Rameshwar, D. and Angappa, G., 2017, Sustainable supply chain management: framework and further research directions, Journal of Cleaner Production, Vol. 142, Part 2.

33. Rezvani, M. R. and Sahneh, B., 2005, To evaluate the development of rural areas using fuzzy logic (Case study: the district of the port city of Aq Qala and Turkmen), Journal of Rural Development, Vol. 8, No. 3.

34. Ríos-Carmenado, I.; Rahoveanu, A. and Gallegos, A., 2014, Project management competencies for regional development in romania: Analysis from
“Working with People” model. Procedia Economics and Finance, 8: 614-621. http:// www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/S2212-5671(14)00136-1.

35. Rogelio, M. and Sergio, T., 2018, The contemporary development discourse: Analysing the influence of development studies’ journals, World Development, Vol. 109.

36. Sonal, S.; Vijay, N. and Sunil, L., 2016, Identification and analysis of barriers in implementation of solar energy in Indian rural sector using integrated ISM and fuzzy MICMAC approach, Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Vol. 62.

37. Tabatabai, S., 2015, The future need for research in medical education and health, The journal Strides in Development of Future Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2.

38. Taghiloo, A., 2015, The rural settlement of future scenarios, Research and Rural Planning, Vol. 3, No. 1, PP. 19-35.

39. Taheri Demne, M. and Nadri Khorshidi, A. R., 2015, Foresight human resources in the police force Iran using the scenario compilation and cross-impact analysis, Anson Police sources Journal, Vol. 9, No. 36.

40. Zali, N. and Zamanipoor, M., 2015, System analysis variables in planning regional development strategy Snaryvmbna (Case study: Mazandaran), Town And Country Planning, Vol. 7, No. 1.

41. Zangiabadi, A.; Ahmadiyan, M.; Shahsavani, M. J. and Alizadeh, J., 2013, Spatial analysis of regional development in the province, using a combination of multi-criteria decision-making methods, Journal of Regional Planning, Vol. 3, PP. 1-12.

42. Zaplicka, K.; Stańczyk, K. and Kapusta, K., 2009, Technology foresight for avision ofenergy sector development in Poland till 2030, Delphi survey as an element of technology foresighting, Technological Forecasting and Social Change 76(3),http://www.dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.techfore.2008.05.007.