Spatial analysis of the effects of Rural-Urban on the socio-economic structure of rural areas of Isfahan province in the period 2011-2022

ABSTRACT
Understanding the socio-economic structures of villages and cities is a key concern of rural development research. This study aimed to spatially analyze the role of villages and cities in the socio-economic development of rural areas in Isfahan province. The statistical population comprises 13 rural settlements that were upgraded to villages and cities between 2011 and 2022. Based on the Cochran formula, 384 questionnaires were collected and examined using a descriptive-analytical method with a correlation approach and spatial analysis. The analyses included a one-sample t-test, structural equation modeling (SEM) in MATLAB, and spatial analysis using Moran's index and the Kriging method in ArcGIS. The findings showed that the component "social capital" has the most positive effect, and "economic stability" has the most negative effect on the socio-economic structure. Also, the economic stability variable shows a cluster pattern and positive spatial autocorrelation (Moran's I = 0.212), indicating the roles of spatial and institutional factors in rural-urban economic resilience. The concentration of infrastructure, public investments, and economic diversification are associated with increased economic stability, while weak social capital and dependence on one economic sector reduce it. In general, rural development is not a linear or single process, but is the result of dynamic interactions between socio-economic structures and spatial linkages between settlements. Therefore, policymaking should focus on less stable clusters, strengthen infrastructure, increase the diversity of economic activities, and promote social capital to achieve balanced, sustainable spatial development within the province's rural-urban network.
 
Extended Abstract
Introduction
In recent decades, the creation of village-cities has been considered as a strategy for developing rural areas, reducing geographical isolation, and controlling migration. In Iran, this policy has also been pursued to stabilize the population and regional balance. However, the accelerated transformation of villages into village-cities, contrary to global planned patterns, has often led to high density, irregular construction, and the continuation of traditional social characteristics. At the same time, the residents of these areas are usually young, low-income, and poorly educated, and despite moving away from agriculture, they have maintained their rural identity. The significant decline in the rural population in Iran and Isfahan Province has heightened the need to evaluate the functioning of these settlements, as research shows that promoting villages has not always led to improved socio-economic conditions and has sometimes exacerbated spatial inequality. The innovation of this research is the simultaneous analysis of the socio-economic structures of Isfahan's villages and cities during 2011-2022, and the combined use of t-tests, structural equation modeling, and GIS spatial analysis, which provides a framework for balanced planning by identifying patterns of economic stability. The ultimate goal of the research is to identify the factors affecting the socio-economic structure of the provinces' villages and to examine the impact of villages and cities on the sustainability of this structure, so that, by utilizing the results, planners' ability to remove restrictions and promote local development can be increased.
 
Methodology
This study, with an applied and descriptive-analytical approach, has investigated the spatial components affecting the socio-economic structure of 13 villages and cities in Isfahan province. First, the main variables were identified through literature reviews and expert opinions, and the necessary data were collected via a questionnaire. Experts confirmed the questionnaire's validity, and the sample size was determined using the Cochran formula. The data, collected on a five-point Likert scale, were analyzed using single-sample t-tests, factor analysis, reliability and validity indices, coefficient of determination and prediction, and spatial methods such as Moran's I and Kriging interpolation to examine the statistical relationships and spatial patterns of socio-economic components.
 
Results and discussion
In this study, the impact of transforming villages into rural-urban areas on the socio-economic structure of Isfahan province was examined. The results showed that social capital is the most important factor in strengthening the social structure. At the same time, economic stability is clustered and unequal, and is low in many areas. Regions with better infrastructure and economic diversity are more stable, while rural-urban areas dependent on single-crop economies and traditional agriculture are more unstable. The findings indicate that rural-urban areas perform better in the social dimension than in the economic and spatial dimensions, and that continuing this trend without strengthening livelihood diversity and spatial justice can exacerbate inequalities. Therefore, the balanced development of rural and urban areas requires strengthening social capital, economic diversification, and expanding infrastructure. Limitations, such as the small sample size and cross-sectional data, also indicate that future research should use advanced spatial methods and longitudinal data.
 
Conclusion
The results of this research can be used as a model for creating village-cities in rural areas. Therefore, by using appropriate methods, rural migration and excessive urban growth can be prevented.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.