Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Department of Urban Planning, Faculty of Fine Arts, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
ABSTRACT
This study explores the patterns of shrinkage in administratively upgraded small settlements in Iran, using Nir City as a case study. The study employs a qualitative approach utilizing the adapted grounded theory method. Data were collected through 17 in-depth interviews with local residents and city officials, and analyzed using thematic analysis. The findings indicate that shrinkage in Nir City functions as a self-reinforcing, multidimensional cycle driven by the interaction of ecological, economic, institutional, and social dimensions. Drought as the primary trigger has weakened the city’s agricultural economy leading to economic stagnation. This decline has resulted in net outmigration and drain of human capital, which, in turn, eroded the city's financial and institutional foundation. Administrative policies intended to upgrade the city—implemented with a rent-seeking logic and without consideration for the city's actual capacity—have exacerbated this cycle. Socially, the erosion of social capital and the rise of fatalism and hopelessness have limited opportunities for collective action, further entrenching the cycle. This research introduces the concept of "institutional-ecological shrinkage" as a key pattern in similar administratively upgraded small settlements in Iran, distinguishing it from classical shrinkage patterns observed in large industrial cities.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Urban shrinkage is a multidimensional phenomenon that has affected numerous regions worldwide since the late twentieth century, resulting in sustained population decline, economic stagnation, and deteriorating urban functionality. The scholarly literature on this subject has been predominantly concentrated on large industrial cities in the Global North—cities that entered a cycle of decline following periods of population and economic growth. In the Global South, however, a distinct pattern of shrinkage has emerged, manifesting primarily in small and medium-sized cities that are more vulnerable to shocks such as out-migration and environmental crises due to their weak institutional and economic capacities.
In Iran, the administrative upgrading of villages and townships to the status of cities has been one of the most significant instruments of spatial policy. The reduction of the minimum population threshold for upgrading a settlement from 10,000 to 3,500 persons has led to a dramatic increase in the number of small upgraded cities. This process has given rise to what Iranian scholars term kham-shahrs (proto-cities or cities-on-paper)—settlements that have obtained legal urban status without possessing the economic, institutional, and functional foundations required for genuine urban development. Evidence illustrates that many of these cities face economic stagnation, population decline, and weakening regional roles. Despite the scale of this phenomenon, the experience of shrinkage in small upgraded settlements has not been systematically studied in Iran.
Against this backdrop, this study selects Nir City as a case study to explain the pattern of shrinkage in this type of settlements to contribute to the development of a contextually grounded framework for understanding this phenomenon in Iran.
Methodology
The study employed a qualitative approach using adapted grounded theory. Participants were selected based on their lived experience, knowledge, and engagement with the phenomenon. Sampling was purposive, utilizing a maximum variation strategy to capture a broad range of perspectives. Data were collected through 17 in-depth, unstructured interviews with residents (n=12) and local officials (n=5). Sampling continued until theoretical saturation was achieved—after the fifteenth interview, new data predominantly repeated earlier themes, and two additional interviews were conducted to confirm saturation.
Data analysis employed inductive thematic analysis. In the first stage, interview transcripts were coded without reliance on a predetermined theoretical framework, yielding 215 primary codes, subsequently organized into 28 concepts, and ultimately consolidated into 10 main themes. In the second stage, the extracted themes were compared and interpreted against the urban shrinkage literature to situate findings within existing knowledge and identify the distinctive features of small upgraded cities.
Nir City, covering 338.7 hectares, is located on the southern edge of Yazd Province, 80 kilometers from the provincial capital. Nir obtained city status in 1983 under the prevailing administrative reclassification law that required district centers to be designated as cities. Both qualitative and quantitative findings consistently indicate that, despite periods of relative population stability, the city has been on a long-term trajectory of structural shrinkage. The population declined by approximately 17 percent between 1991 and 2011 according to Statistics Center data; health center records suggest the drop was closer to 40 percent (from 5,000 to 3,000 persons) over the same period. The proportion of elderly residents has doubled over 30 years, and 63.5 percent of the population aged over ten years belongs to the economically inactive category.
Results and discussion
Findings are organized into three broad categories: background factors, inertia factors, and consequences.
A) Background Factors of Shrinkage
1. Climatic Conditions and Drought Recurrent. droughts and declining water resources over three decades have been the starting point for most demographic and economic transformations in Nir. Interviewees identified this period as the turning point of the city's decline, highlighting the drying of wells and qanats, declining agricultural productivity, and reduced cultivated areas as the most significant consequences.
2. Economic Stagnation. The decline in water resources has directly manifested as economic stagnation. The local economy's heavy dependence on agriculture and livestock meant that falling production confronted a large proportion of residents with severe livelihood constraints. Economic stagnation and out-migration operate as a mutually reinforcing cycle: income decline triggers migration, while migration deepens stagnation through reduced demand and weakened local circulation.
3. Service Deficits. As shrinkage intensified, public services and educational facilities gradually deteriorated. The absence of certain secondary school tracks has prompted families with otherwise stable economic situations to migrate to the provincial capital to secure educational opportunities for their children.
4. Cultural and Normative Dynamics of Migration. Alongside structural factors, cultural and normative patterns have contributed to institutionalizing migration. "Leaving the city" has gradually become normalized as a "natural stage of life" among young people and their families. Migration reproduces itself through migration networks and kinship ties.
5. Administrative Reclassification and Decline in Urban Status. The separation of the Garizat and Kahdouiyeh rural districts and the formation of a new sub-province in 2008 reduced Nir's administrative-political population and weakened its status as a district center. Interviewees interpreted this change as deepening pre-existing tensions between the county seat and Nir.
B) Inertia Factors (Inhibitors of Adaptation)
1. Static Orientation and Fatalism. A pervasive sense of hopelessness about improving conditions emerged as a recurring theme across interviews. Among farmers and their families, comparisons between remembered past fertility and the current arid landscape generate visible grief and loss.
2. Lack of Unity and Solidarity Among Residents and Officials. Many interviewees believed that greater social solidarity among local groups would have allowed Nir to chart a different course. Local decision-making processes are frequently characterized by conflict and rarely result in constructive agreement. The division between government and citizens, which is rooted in Iran's political culture, is reproduced at the local level, constituting a barrier to effective collective action.
C) Consequences of Shrinkage
1. Out-Migration and Labor Shortage. Sustained out-migration has produced a critical shortage of local and skilled labor. Approximately 40–45 percent of municipal employees are non-residents who commute daily with little motivation to settle permanently in Nir.
2. Population Aging. A significant share of Nir's permanent residents are elderly persons whose children have migrated for employment, education, or family formation. Over 21.6 percent of the total population of Taft County consists of persons aged over 60, compared with a national figure of 11.5 percent in 2024.
3. Vacant Housing and Seasonal Residence. Approximately 3,000 residential units with completion permits are registered in Nir, while only 1,091 households are identified as permanent residents—implying that approximately 65 percent of units are vacant or used as second homes.
The Self-Reinforcing Cycle of Shrinkage
Data analysis reveals that shrinkage in Nir is not a linear, single-factor process but operates as a self-reinforcing cycle. The environmental crisis driven by sustained drought debilitated the agricultural economy; economic stagnation generated progressive out-migration - particularly among young people and human capital holders. Therefore, migration deepened stagnation through reduced demand, weakened services, labor shortages, and population aging. Simultaneously, administrative reclassification reduced the city's capacity to attract resources, while attitudinal (hopelessness) and institutional (lack of solidarity) factors curtailed the collective capacity to break out of this cycle. Consequences such as population aging, vacant housing, and dependence on non-resident labor are not merely symptoms of shrinkage—they function as feedback loops that reproduce and intensify it.
Conclusion
Invisibility of Small Administratively Upgraded Settlements and Urban Power Structures. The findings confirm that shrinkage in Nir is not a result of planning failure but a response to structural economic and demographic transformations. However, the experience of Nir diverges from the classical pattern of industrial city shrinkage. The study aligns with Robinson's (2013) critique of "world-city urbanism," which argues that the theoretical focus on a limited number of megacities has excluded small and medium cities from theory production. Nir is not a marginal case but a site for understanding how processes of statistical urbanization, spatial development bias, and shrinkage intersect. The study further shows that the phenomenon is bound up with unequal power distribution in the urban system: the concentration of capital, attention, and symbolic legitimacy in large cities places small cities in a marginal position. Administrative upgrading without structural changes in power inequalities not only fails to prevent shrinkage but may intensify the experience of peripherality.
Administrative Upgrading as Nominal Scale Jump. The study confirms and contextualizes Zanganeh Shahraki's (2013) argument that many small cities in Iran were upgraded for administrative and political reasons rather than functional necessity. The upgrading of Nir constituted a "nominal scale jump" inconsistent with the settlement's actual capacities. The gap between the promises of upgrading and the prevailing realities generated disillusionment, institutional distrust, and social capital erosion—findings consistent with Bastin (2015).
Conclusions and Theoretical Contributions
The study offers four main theoretical contributions:
First, The Concept of "Post-Upgrade Shrinkage". Unlike classical shrinkage models in which decline follows a sustained growth phase, in Nir the onset of shrinkage is near-simultaneous with administrative upgrading. Administrative upgrading under conditions of ecological crisis and economic fragility can itself trigger a new cycle of shrinkage.
Second, The Distinction Between "Organic Peak" and "Nominal Peak". An organic peak reflects the gradual accumulation of population, capital, and economic functions, whereas a nominal peak results from an administrative decision that raises urban expectations and obligations without providing the capacities needed to meet them. This concept explains how statistical urbanization without functional backing becomes part of the shrinkage mechanism.
Third, The Model of "Institutional-Ecological Shrinkage Cycle". This model demonstrates how ecological drivers, economic fragility, and institutional constraints become interconnected in a self-reinforcing cycle that reproduces shrinkage. In this cycle, administrative upgrading is not an external intervention but part of the shrinkage mechanism, operating through the intensification of the expectations–reality gap.
Fourth, Repositioning Small Upgraded Settlements in the Urban-Rural Continuum. Nir is neither fully urban nor fully rural; it occupies an intermediate position in which features of both urban and rural shrinkage coexist simultaneously. This finding calls for a rethinking of the binary urban-rural classification and points to the need for contextually sensitive policy frameworks. The primary question should not be whether small settlements should be upgraded, but rather: under what ecological, economic, and institutional conditions can upgrading generate sustainable development—and under what conditions does it activate or accelerate cycles of shrinkage?
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We would like to express our sincere gratitude to all the expert advisors and interview participants who provided valuable insights and guidance for this paper.
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