تبیین سناریوهای مسکن گروه های آسیب پذیر شهری، مطالعه موردی: کلانشهر تهران

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس تهران

2 دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

3 استادیار گروه سنجش از دور دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

چکیده

بخش زیادی از آینده مسکن اقشار آسیب پذیر تحت تاثیر عوامل کلان است که قابل کنترل و تغییر توسط شهرداری و یا سایر نهادهای تصمیم گیری در حوزه مسکن نیستند. لذا الزامی است نهادهای درگیر در تامین مسکن اقشار کم درآمد، به جای تلاش برای پیش بینی وکنترل آینده، خود را برای آینده های متعدد ناشی از تحولات اقتصادی، اجتماعی، سیاسی، فناوری و.... آماده کنند که نخستین گام در این راستا تدوین سناریوهای آینده مسکن اقشار آسیب پذیر است. در این پژوهش با بهره گیری از این روش سعی در ترسیم آینده منطقی و باور پذیر(سناریو ها) برای مسکن اقشار کم در امد شده است تا از این طریق به برنامه ریزان کمک کرده باشد راهکارهای بهینه برای حل این مشکل ارائه دهند. پس از مرور مبانی نظری مجموعه ای پیشران های اثرگذار بر آینده کلانشهر تهران شناسایی شده و بر اساس روش تحلیل اثرات متقاطع مورد بررسی قرار گرفت. بر اساس نتایج تحلیل اثرات متقاطع 4 پیشران، وضعیت سیاستگذاری سرزمین، فقر شهری، درآمد سرانه و رشد جمعیت جزء پیشران های کلیدی بوده اند. در این میان نرخ رشد درآمد سرانه با توجه به اینکه بطور مستقیم بر فقر شهری اثرگذاشته و به نوعی نمایان گر آن است و در قالب همان فقر شهری بیان شده است. بر این اساس چارچوب سناریوها را 3 عدم قطعیت: 1-وضعیت فقر شهری کلانشهر تهران2-نرخ رشد جمعیت کلانشهر تهران 2-نگرش های آمایش سرزمین. شیوه ی مدیریت سرزمین تشکیل می دهد. بر اساس 3 پیشران و 8 سناریوی ممکن وجود دارد که سناریوی سوم و سناریوی هشتم بدلیل تناقض بین وقوع همزمان تمرکز زدایی از تهران و افزایش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بوده و حذف شدند. همچنین سناریوی پنجم و هفتم بدلیل وجود تناقض بین تداوم تمرکز گرایی در تهران و کاهش نرخ رشد جمعیت دارای ناسازگاری درونی بوده و از لیست سناریوها

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining housing scenarios for vulnerable urban groups   Case Study: metropolis Tehran

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saleh Asadi 1
  • abolfazl meshkini 2
  • safarsafar ghaedrahmati 2
  • S. A. Alavi 3
1 Tarbiat Modares University
2 Tarbiat Modares University
3 استادیار گروه سنجش از دور دانشگاه تربیت مدرس
چکیده [English]

A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.

A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.
A large part of the housing future of vulnerable segments is affected by large factors that can not be controlled by municipalities or other decision-making bodies in the housing sector. Therefore, it is imperative that institutions involved in providing housing for low-income groups, instead of trying to anticipate and control the future, prepare themselves for the future of economic, social, political, technological and other developments that are the first step in this direction. Developing future housing scenarios for vulnerable populations. In this research, using this method, we try to draw a reasonable and believable future (scenarios) for low-income housing, helping planners find the best solutions to solve this problem. After reviewing the theoretical foundations, a series of influential impacts on the future of the Tehran metropolitan area were identified and examined based on the cross-impact analysis method. According to the results of cross-impact analyzes of four drivers, the status of land policy, urban poverty, per capita income and population growth were among the key drivers. In the meantime, the growth rate of per capita income is reflected in the fact that it directly affects urban poverty and somehow represents it, and is expressed in terms of urban poverty. Accordingly, the framework of the scenarios is 3 uncertainties: 1. The urban poverty status of the Tehran metropolis. 2. The population growth rate of the Tehran metropolis. 2. Attitudes of the land. Forms the land management style. Based on 3 proponents and 8 possible scenarios, the third scenario and the eighth scenario, due to the contradiction between the simultaneous occurrence of decentralization from Tehran and the increase in the population growth rate, were internalized and eliminated. Also, the fifth and seventh scenarios, due to the contradiction between continuity of concentration in Tehran and the decline in population growth rate, were internal incompatibility and were removed from the list of scenarios. Thus, 4 scenarios remained, and scenario scenarios were presented for each of the scenarios.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Housing
  • vulnerable segments
  • Scenario
  • Tehran Metropolis
  • cross-impact analysis

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 19 اسفند 1397
  • تاریخ دریافت: 22 دی 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 19 اسفند 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 19 اسفند 1397