شناسایی و تحلیل عوامل مؤثر بر توسعه شهری با رویکرد آینده نگاری (مطالعه موردی: شهر ایلام)

Extended abstract
Introduction
Weaknesses of traditional approaches to urban planning, including the inability to cope with the complexity and uncertainty of change, forecast constraints as the main support tools for urban planners and decision makers, the main emphasis on spatial form, short-term planning orientation, lack of comprehensive approach And the holistic view of the urban system, the lack of effective participation and cooperation between stakeholders and the neglect of the vision approach to the future, has led planners and city managers to use new tools in this area.
The city of Ilam, as the capital of the province due to the strategic location of the international border of Mehran and the location of this city in transit and transit conditions on one side and the other, urban rural migration, irregular expansion of the city, the annexation of some surrounding villages Within the city limits, the uncontrolled expansion of suburban textures around the city, especially in areas with rugged and sloping topography, the staggering increase in land and housing prices, the growing demand for urban life, witness changes in the performance and appearance of the city. In the near future, it will cause many challenges and issues outside of urban development plans and projects in this city. Therefore, the existence of such conditions requires strategic studies based on the future perspective of the city to identify the most important variables affecting urban development. This research intends to identify and analyze the most important factors affecting the development of Ilam city with a futuristic approach and examine the extent and how these factors affect each other and the future situation of Ilam city, which in fact is the basis for developing scenarios and achieving the desired scenarios. Provide. Therefore, according to the purpose, the main question of this research is what are the possible and desirable scenarios in the development of Ilam city?

Theoretical Bases
Differences in the views and diversity of origins and areas of knowledge of those who have considered futurism have led to various definitions of it, and on the other hand, the relatively short life of futurism indicates that this concept is still in its infancy. There is a transition. Since the 1970s, Europeans have paid close attention to the field of futurism, using the term futurism for the field. The first futuristic studies in science, technology, and innovation at the national level date back to 1970.
The fact is that the lack of foresight in the urban development system is one of the main factors in the weakness of the urban planning system. Methods of recognizing and constructing the future require dealing with social phenomena and then through the path of planning. The level of analysis of the city as a platform for social action is one of the most important components of foresight that should be reflected in the framework of city plans. Urban planners should provide commitment to the generation by preparing a vision and prioritizing issues, evaluating and formulating social criteria. Future people, recognizing the factors of change and transformation in society and paying attention to the present by thinking about the future, with an active and intelligent approach, design the desired future of the urban system.

research method
The research method is descriptive-analytical and the method of collecting information and data of the questionnaire is based on library, documentary and field studies. In the documentary and library studies section to achieve the desired information, from Internet sources, books and the latest Persian and Latin articles have been used. The statistical population is the entire geographical area of Ilam city and the statistical sample includes 50 people from the community of experts in the field of urban planning in the departments of road and urban planning, municipality, governorate (technical office and office of urban affairs), environment. To analyze the data and variables, the modeling process and MIC MAC software, Scenario Wizard were used.

findings
The results show that the degree of saturation of the matrix is 84.83%, which indicates that the selected factors have a large and scattered effect on each other and in fact the system has been in an unstable state. Out of 2383 evaluable relationships between the variables of this matrix, 426 items have a value of zero (no direct relationship), 1304 relationships have a value of one (low impact), 910 relationships have a value of two (medium impact) and 169 relationships have a value of three (high impact) They were.

Conclusion
This futuristic approach identifies and analyzes the most important factors affecting the development of Ilam city and examines the extent and how these factors affect each other and the future situation of Ilam city. The main results of this research have two stages: The first stage is the results related to the variables that determine the development of Ilam city. For this purpose, 53 factors in 6 study sections (economic, social, political, etc.) and in the impact analysis matrix were adjusted and collected for development and planning experts of the city and analyzed with MICMAC software. Finally, from the initial 53 factors, 10 factors were selected as key factors that will play the most important role in the future development of Ilam city, which are: the existence of non-governmental organizations, the need for integrated urban management, management Executive, urban pollution, location of urban land uses in different parts of the city, implementation of a comprehensive and detailed plan, increase of facilities and public services, organization of social activities, citizen participation, urban culture. Among these, key development variables have a special role and place in the scenario development process of Ilam city. Then, by defining the possible situations of each factor in the future progress of this city, 30 possible situations were designed. Then, using the capabilities of Wizard software, 2 strong scenarios, 93 weak scenarios and 17 believable scenarios were extracted. In general, it should be said that the main result of this research shows that the future development of Ilam city continues