آینده نگاری‌ برنامه ریزی‌ شهر سالم ‌با رویکرد ‌سناریونویسی ‌ (مطالعه موردی: شهر بندر ماهشهر)

As the highest manifestation of human civilization, the city plays a fundamental role in creating a good life for all citizens. Nowadays, due to the importance of health among citizens, city planners propose a relatively new term called urban health, in which, while addressing the current situation and examining various issues and problems in the city and health, promoting They follow issues such as social welfare, improving the quality of life and urban health. This research was done with the aim of identifying the key factors affecting the future planning process of Salem city with the scenario writing approach in Bandar Mahshahr city and preparing probable and believable scenarios for the future state of the system. Therefore, the identification of key factors and favorable scenarios on the future trend of the system has been the main focus of this research. This research is developmental-applicative in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of nature. To collect the required information and data, library and field methods were used. The results show that attention to the citizen-oriented category and the use of citizens in planning and urban health with a score of +87 shows our first scenario to reach a healthy city. Our second scenario is to pay attention to the component of life expectancy at birth, which has obtained a score of +85. The third scenario is the state of the health education program with a score of +84, the fourth scenario is the component of access to green space with a score of +83, the fifth and sixth scenarios are the state of health, health and the sense of belonging to the place with a score of +82.

Research Methodology

This research is developmental-applicative in terms of purpose and analytical-exploratory in terms of nature. To collect the required information and data, library and field methods were used. The data was collected using the Delphi method and analyzed and analyzed using the cross-effects analysis method under the MicMac software and the scenario writing method under the ScenarioWizard software. Bandar Mahshahr municipality, the second stage of Delphi was implemented; In this way, a questionnaire in the form of a mutual influence matrix was created for the specified factors and was given to the relevant experts to determine the extent and intensity of the influence of the factors on each other. The extent of this influence was also measured from zero to three. At this stage, the cross-effects analysis method was used using MicMac software to identify and extract the key factors affecting the future state of the studied system. Identifying these factors is necessary to formulate possible situations and write scenarios for the future of the Bandar Mahshahr Healthy City project. In the third stage of Delphi, by asking the experts involved, possible and leading situations were defined for the key factors, and finally, in the fourth stage of the Delphi technique, a matrix of mutual effects was formed for the possible situations of the key factors. Then, this matrix was provided to the experts to measure the influence of the possible situations of the factors on each other. The results obtained from the received questionnaires were used with the help of ScenarioWizard software to formulate possible scenarios and identify desirable scenarios.

conclusion

This research was done with the aim of identifying the key factors affecting the future planning process of Salem city with the scenario writing approach in Bandar Mahshahr city and preparing probable and believable scenarios for the future state of the system. Therefore, the identification of key factors and favorable scenarios on the future trend of the system has been the main focus of this research.

The results of analyzes and investigations after identifying the primary factors and variables affecting the future state of the system, the method of cross-effects analysis was used using MicMac software to extract key factors from the set of primary factors. Finally, 30 key factors with direct influence and 30 factors with indirect influence were identified based on analyzes and reviews. These factors include: the role of the government (as the guardian of the matter), information technology (electronic and smart infrastructure), budget, air pollution situation, pedestrian and vehicle access system in the centers of urban areas, the area of urban influence, drinking water sanitation situation, The sense of place and social relations, the level of green space, the desirability of optimal distribution of land use, the number of deaths (all ages), the structure of residential units, unemployment rate, employment status and unemployment rate in the region, social security status, per capita income, the existence of programs Health education, nutrition quality, national macro management (in all dimensions), legislation, public access to green space, availability of public welfare facilities, lack of citizen-oriented category (lack of role of citizens in urban management), lack of management stability (change and constant managerial changes), life expectancy at birth, city-level noise pollution, insurance coverage, adult literacy, managers' open politics (political factions), garbage and sewage collection. These factors play a very important role in the planning process of a healthy city.

The results of the analysis of ScenarioWizard software also show that 6 believable scenarios with different combinations of situations are likely to occur in the future of the system, which fortunately are more likely to occur in favorable and positive scenarios. In this research, we have reached 6 scenarios with high compatibility or believable scenarios that show attention to the citizen-oriented category and the use of citizens in planning and urban health with a score of +87, our first scenario to reach a healthy city. Our second scenario is to pay attention to the component of life expectancy at birth, which has obtained a score of +85. The third scenario is the status of the health education program with a score of +84. The fourth scenario is the component of access to green space with a score of +83. Scenario 5 and 6 are the health status of health and the sense of belonging to the place with a score of +82.