Document Type : Research Paper
Authors
Department of Human Geography and Spatial Planning, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University, Tehran, Iran
Abstract
ABSTRACT
In the 21st century, water has emerged as a critical component of geopolitical power dynamics, alongside energy and food. This shift towards water diplomacy reflects the recognition of water scarcity as a defining challenge of our time. The strategic significance of regions with abundant water resources has elevated, with the World Bank's 1995 prediction of water-based conflicts proving prescient. Nowhere is this more apparent than in the Middle East, where tensions over shared water basins like the Tigris and Euphrates rivers persist. This study examines the geopolitical implications of Turkey's control over the Tigris and Euphrates rivers through the Ilisu Dam, focusing on downstream countries such as Syria, Iraq, and Iran. Employing descriptive-analytical and historical methods, the research aims to elucidate the multifaceted impacts of Turkey's water management strategies on these nations. The findings underscore the urgent need for a collaborative approach to address water-related challenges, including drought, dust storms, and land subsidence. The study advocates for a four-way cooperation among the downstream countries to establish equitable access to water resources and mitigate potential conflicts. It emphasizes the importance of a strategic alliance to leverage 'blue diplomacy' in resolving disputes and ensuring sustainable water management practices in the region.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Water holds political and security significance in the Middle East, influencing national and regional governmental policies. Following World War I, the region witnessed the division and fragmentation of territories, leading to the partitioning of rivers and shared water basins among present-day countries. Turkey aims to bolster its influence through hydropolitical dominance over downstream countries within these water basins. Water has become the paramount political concern in the region, precipitating conflicts of interest among nations over the allocation of water resources, including those of international rivers. This research seeks to address the query:
-"What geopolitical ramifications will arise in the downstream countries due to Turkey's control of the Tigris River through the Ilisu Dam?" Furthermore, the study delves into sub-questions such as:
- "What challenges will the utilization of the Ilisu Dam pose for downstream countries?"
-"How can the water scarcity crisis in the Tigris and Euphrates basin be effectively managed?
Methodology
The present research endeavors to offer a thorough analysis of the construction of the Ilisu Dam in Turkey and the diversion of the Tigris River to discern the geopolitical implications of the undertaking. The research methodology employed is qualitative, with an inductive data analysis approach. Utilizing a descriptive-analytical and historical framework, data collection primarily entails sourcing documents from libraries, as well as studying books, articles, and online resources. Conclusions are drawn from the ensuing discussions.
Results and discussion
In recent years, Turkey has intensified its exploitation of the Tigris River's upstream potential, raising legal disputes over the sharing of Tigris and Euphrates waters and triggering significant geopolitical ramifications. The emergence of hydropolitical crises underscores the intersection of international law and geopolitical realities. Turkey's shift in water policy has disrupted the established geopolitical balance in the region, heightening downstream countries' dependence on Turkish-controlled water resources. The escalating demand for drinking water, agricultural irrigation, and other vital uses in countries like Syria and Iraq has placed immense pressure on these nations domestically and internationally. Consequently, the geopolitical equilibrium in the region is being reshaped. Turkey's assertive water policies have exacerbated territorial and border tensions with its downstream neighbors. Furthermore, there is a risk that Turkey may wield its water management strategies as a means to exert power and influence in border disputes. The trajectory suggests a looming geopolitical crisis in the affected countries, with water-related issues increasingly shaping their future. The persistence of challenges such as floods, droughts, food insecurity, and unilateral water management projects in the Tigris and Euphrates basins indicates a continuing critical trend. The potential for international conflicts and cross-border disputes over water resources remains high in this densely populated watershed, which is home to approximately 60 million people across Iraq, Turkey, Syria, and Iran. The operation of the Ilisu Dam has already begun to impact the water quality of the Tigris River, leading to downstream consequences such as increased salinity in the Shat al-Arab and Karoun rivers. These transformations are altering the watershed dynamics and affecting maintenance costs. Water scarcity has become intertwined with national security concerns, exacerbating food and industrial insecurities and fostering population discontent, which could escalate into chaos or civil unrest. It's evident that water scarcity undermines economies and agricultural productivity, leading to societal unrest and potential geopolitical crises. The internal vulnerabilities of downstream countries weaken their economic, security, and political stability, amplifying their susceptibility to external pressures. In conclusion, the geopolitical implications of water management in the Tigris and Euphrates basin underscore the urgent need for cooperative and sustainable solutions to ensure regional stability and security.
Conclusion
Turkey's strategy aims to leverage every opportunity to assert its hydropolitical dominance over downstream countries, positioning itself as a hydro-hegemon within geostrategic calculations. This ambition drives Turkey to wield hydropolitics as a potent tool, aiming to redefine its regional role. However, the adverse effects of controlling the Tigris and Euphrates waters inevitably extend to Iran. Changes in the Shat al-Arab watershed, increased migration, wetland depletion, rising dust levels, water salinity, and agricultural challenges exacerbate local and national issues in Iran, with these problems projected to escalate in the future. The ecological landscape of the Tigris and Euphrates basins is poised for transformation, sparking public discontent and fueling local and regional conflicts within affected countries. The construction of the Ilisu Dam further exacerbates these challenges, amplifying their impact. These issues directly shape geopolitics, diminishing downstream countries' prestige, influence, and geopolitical autonomy vis-à-vis Turkey. Consequently, Syria and Iraq's geopolitical reliance on Turkey has surged due to its control over the Tigris and Euphrates water inflows. As a result of prevailing hydropolitical dynamics, Iraq, Syria, and Iran find themselves increasingly geopolitically tethered to Turkey. With dwindling water resources in Syria and Iraq, the potential for heightened conflicts and even warfare rooted in direct hydropolitical tensions looms ominously on the horizon.
Funding
There is no funding support.
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
Acknowledgments
We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.
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