Spatial analysis of Social vulnerability of households against Earthquake (case Study: 6 Region of Tehran)

Document Type : Research Paper



Extended Abstract
Today the identification, control and prevention of loss of life and property damage in relation with hazards is one of the most important issues. This issues requires special attention and planning in this area. Earthquake, is considered as one of the hazards and natural disasters that Creates serious damage to land and structures. This damages are caused the much loss of life. The earthquake is a natural phenomenon that occasionally vibrates the earth and causes damages. The earthquake could be a disaster due to unfamiliarity and inability of human when confronting it. It will be more intensive when unreasonable action of human occurs. The social factors have determined effects on household vulnerability as compared to other elements which must be investigated. The 6 region of Tehran is more vulnerable to possible events of earthquake because of centrality in Tehran, existence of ministries, embassies, higher education institutes, health centers, hospitals and big economic companies. Therefore, with regard to the importance of this issue, the recent research will evaluate and analyses the social vulnerability among households in neighbors of 6 region of Tehran.
The recent study is on the basis of a descriptive-analytical method. Statistical population of the research consists of total households of 6 region of Tehran including 29051 families. The number of data for sampling were estimated 331 households according to Cochran formulae from which on the basis of classified sampling method and optimum allocation and ratio of number of blocks in each neighbor were determined. The validity of questionnaire was confirmed using experts and faculty members. The reliability of awareness scales and reaction readiness against earthquake hazards using Cronbach's alpha were 0.751 and 0.79, respectively, which were acceptable. A numeric code was allocated to each question to quantitative it and hot spot technique was used to determine the upper and lower points and Kriging interpolation was employed to generalize the results of the point value to the area and fuzzy technique was used for indexation. Also, for combining layers, weight of each layer is required. There are different techniques for determining weight. In this study Delphi technique was used. Finally, to measure, saw techniques have been used
Results and discussion
Tehran's sixth region is one of the 22 districts of Tehran. This region, because of the centrality and the existence of important land use, have a great importance in Tehran city. Kriging interpolation was used to regionalize the physiological factors of social vulnerability for different indices viz. sex, and age, physical and mental disability. Sex vulnerability was high in Shariati, Vlie-Asr, Ghaem magham- Sanaee and Abbasabad neighbours. Age index vulnerability was less in the region and it was lesser in the neighbours such as Vlie-Asr and Laleh Park as compared to others. The physical and mental disability was low in the region and it was higher in the neighbours like Vlie-Asr, Iranshahr and Laleh Park but lesser in Amirabad, Gandi and Argentine-Saee as compared to others. The results show that a heterogeneity was found among households and it was more in south and north of the region. Ownership vulnerability in Iranshahr, Abbasabad, Behjatabad and Ghaem magham- Sanaee was higher as compared to other neighbours. The results revealed that the awareness of head of households was more in accordance with earthquake and a negative relationship among awareness, sex, ownership, ethnicity and vulnerability were found using Pearson correlation coefficient. Although, a positive relationship among education, income and vulnerability were found.
The results revealed that preparedness of the head of household was less in relation to earthquake and an indirect relationship was found between preparedness and sex, age and ethnicity. Although, a direct and positive relation was discovered between preparedness and education, income and ownership. Kriging interpolation method was used to regionalize the cognitive factors of social vulnerability in preparedness and awareness indices against earthquake. Accordingly, the vulnerability in terms of preparedness and awareness indices in the area was moderate and the household’s awareness was more as compared to preparedness for response in 6 regions.
Kriging interpolation method was also used to regionalize the demographics factors of social vulnerability in education level and population density indices against earthquake. The results showed that regionalization of the demographics factors the education level was high, the population density was moderate, and it was high in southern neighbors. The vulnerability in different dimension was as follows: It was high in Shariati, Vlie-Asr, and Abbasabad neighbors but it was low in Amirabad, Ghezel Ghaleh and Jahad square at physiologic dimension; It was high in Gandi, Iranshahr, University of Tehran and Behjat Abad but was low in Amirabad and Nosrat neighbors at demographics dimension; It was high in University of Tehran, Amirabad, Gandi, Behjat Abad and Abbasabad but it was low in Vlie-Asr, Laleh park, Fatemi and Ghaem magham- Sanaee at cognitive dimension. The total Vulnerability: the total Vulnerability (Social one) was high in Shariati, University of Tehran, Behjatabad, Ghaem magham-Sanaee, Gandi, and Abbasabad (0.6 to 0.8) but it was low in Amirabad and Ghezel Ghaleh (0.2 to 0.4) and it was moderate in other neighbours (0.4 to 0.6).

According to the results of the study, it could be concluded that the neighbors of 6 region of Tehran did not have the same vulnerability against earthquake due to various socio-economic conformations. For example, Amirabad, Ghezel Ghaleh and Shiraz had less vulnerability but Shariati, University of Tehran, Behjatabad, Ghaem magham-Sanaee, Gandi and Abbasabad had high vulnerability as compared to other neighbors. In overall, it should be noted that the management activities need to reduce the vulnerability on the basis of characteristics of neighbors. Another important point in the results of the investigation is the situation and spatial distribution of each of the dimensions of social vulnerability. Based on the maps produced The highest balance and the lowest vulnerability is related to the economic dimension.


Main Subjects

ابراهیمیان قاجاری، یاسر، آل شیخ، علی‌اصغر، مدیری، مهدی، حسنوی، رضا و مرتضی عباسی، 1393، مدلسازی آسیب‌پذیری ساختمان‌های شهری با استفاده از روش‌های دلفی و تحلیل سلسله‌‌مراتبی در محیط GIS (مطالعة موردی: منطقة 6 شهر تهران)، اطلاعات جغرافیایی، دورة بیست‌وسوم، شمارة 91، صص 5- 20.

احدنژاد، محسن، 1389، ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی شهرها دربرابر زلزله نمونة موردی: شهر زنجان، مطالعات و پژوهش‌های شهری و منطقه‌ای، سال دوم، شمارة 7، صص 71- 90.
احدنژاد، محسن، قرخلو، مهدی و کرامت‌اله زیاری، 1389، مدل‌سازی آسیب‌پذیری ساختمانی شهرها دربرابر زلزله با استفاده از روش فرایند تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی در محیط سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، نمونة موردی: شهر زنجان، نشریهجغرافیا و توسعه، سال هشتم،شمارة 19، صص 171- 198.
احدنژاد، محسن، زلفی، علی، نوروزی، محمدجواد و جلیلی، کریم، 1390، ارزیابی آسیب پذیری اجتماعی شهرها در برابر زلزله نمونه موردی (شهر خرمدره)، فصل نامه جغرافیایی چشم انداز زاگرس،‌سال 3، شماره 7، صص 81-98.
امینی، جلال، فرج‌زاده، منوچهر و محسن احد‌نژاد، 1390، ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری مساکن شهری دربرابر زلزله (مطالعه موردی منطقه 9 شهرداری تهران)،مطالعات و پژوهش‌های شهری و منطقه‌ای، سال سوم، شمارة 9، صص 19- 36.
تقوایی، مسعود و نرگس علیمحمدی، 1385، زلزله و پیامدها و بحران‌های ناشی از آن در شهرها، مجلة بنا، سال یازدهم،شمارة 27، صص 83- 107.
جلیل‌پور، شهناز، 1389، ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری کالبدی شهرها دربرابر زلزله با استفاده از GIS (نمونة موردی: بافت قدیم شهر خوی)، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه زنجان.
حاتمی‌نژاد، حسین و فرشید عشق‌آبادی، 1388، ارزیابی میزان آسیب‌پذیری لرزه‌ای در شهر تهران، نمونه موردی: منطقة 10 شهر تهران، نشریة پژوهش‌های جغرافیای انسانی، سال چهل‌ویکم،شمارة 68، صص 1- 20.
رحیمی، ناهید، 1395، آسیب‌پذیری کالبدی مساکن بخش مرکزی کلانشهرها دربرابر خطر زلزله (مطالعه موردی منطقة 6 تهران)، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد دانشکدة ادبیات و علوم انسانی دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، واحد تهران مرکزی.
رنج‌آزمای، فاطمه، 1390، تحلیل آسیب‌پذیری مساکن شهری دربرابر خطر زلزله؛ مطالعة موردی: مساکن منطقه 8 تبریز، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تبریز.
زنگی آبادی، علی، محمدی، جمال، صفایی، همایون و قائدرحمتی، صفر، 1387، تحلیل شاخص‌های آسیب‌پذیری مساکن شهری در برابر خطر زلزله نمونه موردی: مساکن شهر اصفهان، فصلنامۀ جغرافیا و توسعه، سال ششم، شماره 12، صص 61-79.
ستوده، بابک، 1380، برنامه‌ریزی کاربری زمین و اصلاح معابر جهت ایمن‌سازی دربرابر زلزله، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه شیراز.
سلیمانی، مینا، 1393، تدوین استراتژی‌های کالبدی مدیریت شهری در چارچوب سیاست‌های کلان مدیریت بحران شهر تهران: منطقۀ یک شهر تهران، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه تهران.
عزیزی، محمدمهدی و رضا اکبری، 1387، ملاحظات شهرسازی در سنجش آسیب‌پذیری شهرها از زلزله: منطقۀ فرحزاد تهران، نشریة هنرهای زیبا، سال سیزدهم،شمارة 34، صص 25- 36.
فروغی، سلیمان، 1389، ارزیابی آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی بافت قدیم شهرها دربرابر زلزله با استفاده از GIS نمونة موردی بافت قدیم شهر زنجان، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد، دانشگاه زنجان.
فرجی سبکبار، حسنعلی،‌ نادی، بهزاد و محمد رضایی نریمیسا، 1395، عوامل مؤثر بر آسیب‌پذیری منطقة 6 شهر تهران و پهنه‌بندی آسیب‌پذیری در مواجهه با بحران‌های طبیعی، مطالعات مدیریت شهری، دورة هشتم، شمارة 28، صص 1- 11.
قنواتی، عزت‌الله، قلمی، شبنم و اصغر عبدلی، 1388، توانمندسازی مدیریت بحران شهری در جهت کاهش بلایای طبیعی (زلزله) نمونة موردی: شهر خرم‌آباد، فصلنامةجغرافیای طبیعی، سال اول، شمارة 4، صص 5- 24.
قدیری، محمود، 1392، نقش دانش و نگرش ریسک در تبیین تفاوت‌های آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی شهر تهران دربرابر زلزله، مجلة جغرافیا و آمایش شهری- منطقه‌ای،سال سوم،شمارة 6، صص 1- 16.
قدیری، محمود علی ، 1381، کاربرد روش‌های برنامه‌ریزی شهری (کاربری زمین) در کاهش آسیب‌پذیری شهرها دربرابر زلزله (مطالعة موردی: منطقۀ 17شهرداری تهران)، پایان‌نامة کارشناسی ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
قدیری، محمود، 1387، رابطۀ ساخت اجتماعی شهرها و میزان آسیب‌پذیری دربرابر زلزله منطقه مورد مطالعه: محلات کلان‌شهر تهران، پایان‌نامة دکتری رشتة جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس.
قدیری، محمود، 1389، تبیین افتراق اجتماعی- فضایی آسیب‌پذیری کلانشهر تهران دربرابر زلزله، مجموعه مقالات چهارمین کنگرة بین‌المللی جغرافیدانان جهان اسلام، زاهدان، صص 1- 17.
قدیری، محمود، رکن‌الدین افتخاری، عبدالرضا، شایان، سیاوش و اکبر پرهیزکار، 1391، تبیین تمرکز اجتماعی فضایی آسیب‌پذیری شهر تهران دربرابر زلزله، مجلة مدرس علوم انسانی- برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا، دورة شانزدهم، شمارة 3، صص 31- 54.
گیوه‌چی، سعید، 1388، تحلیل و ارائۀ الگوهای مدیریت در سوانح شهری ناشی از مخاطرات زیست‌محیطی، مطالعة موردی منطقة شش تهران، رسالة دکتری رشتة جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تهران.
مرکز آمار ایران، 1394، اطلاعات قیمت و اجارة مسکن در شهر تهران، تهران، مرکز آمار ایران.
ملکی، سعید، مودت، الیاس و محمدعلی فیروزی، 1393، ارزیابی و رتبه‌بندی آسیب‌پذیری اجتماعی شهرها دربرابر زلزله با مدل Toppsis و Gis (نمونۀ موردی شهر یزد)،مجلة مدرس برنامه‌ریزی و آمایش فضا، دورة هجدهم، شمارة 3، صص 99- 123.
Adger, W. N., 1999, Social vulnerability to climate change and extremes in coastal vietnam, Word Development, Vol. 21, No. 2, PP. 249- 269.
Ahadnejad, M., 2011, The Assessment of urban social vulnerability to earthquake (A case study: Zanjan city), Urban Regional Studies and Research, Vol. 2, No. 7, PP. 71- 90. (In Persian)
Ahadnejhad, M., Gharakhlou, M. and Ziari, K., 2010, Modeling the vulnerability of building cities for earthquakes using analytical hierarchy process (AHP) in GIS (Case study: Zanjan), Journal of Geography and Development, Vol. 8, No. 19, PP. 171- 198. (In Persian)
Ahadnejad, M, Zolfi, A., Norouzi, M. and jalilee, K., 2011, Social vulnerability assessment cities against earthquake, (Case Study: City Khoramdareh), quarterly geographical journal of chashmandaz-e-zagros, Vol. 3, No. 7, pp. 81-98. (In Persian)
Amini, J., Farajzadeh, M. and Ahadnezhad, M., 2011, The vulnerability assessment of urban housing in earthquake against (A case study: Region 9 of Tehran municipality), Urban and Regional Studies and Research, Vol. 3, No. 9, PP. 19- 36. (In Persian)
Armas, I. and Gavris, A., 2013, Social vulnerability assessment using spatial multi-criteria analysis (SEVI model) and the Social Vulnerability Index (SoVI model)– a case study for Bucharest, Romania, Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, Vol. 13, No. 6, PP. 1481– 1499.
Azizi, M. M. and Akbari, R., 2008, Planning considerations in assessing the vulnerability of cities against earthquake: region Farahzad, Tehran, Fine Arts Journal, Vol. 13, No. 34, PP. 25- 36. (In Persian)
Ranjazma, F., 2011, Urban housing against the earthquake hazard vulnerability analysis (Case study: Region 8 of Tabriz), MA Thesis, Tabriz university. (In Persian)
Barry E. Flanagan, B., Gregory, W., Hallisey, E., Heitgerd, J., Lewis, B., 2011, A social vulnerability index for disaster management, Journal of Homeland Security and Emergency Management, Vol. 8, No. 1, PP.1- 22.   
Birkmann, J., Cardona, O. D., Carreño, M. L., Barbat, A. H., Pelling, M., Schneiderbauer, S. and Welle, T., 2013, Framing vulnerability, risk and societal responses: The move framework, Natural Hazards, Vol. 67, No. 2, PP. 193- 211.
Burton, C. and Cutter, S. L., 2008. Levee failures and social vulnerability in the Secrermento-san Joaquin delta area, California, Natural Hazards Review, Vol. 9, No. 3, PP. 136- 149.
Charvériat, C. 2000, Natural disasters in Latin America and the caribbean: An overview of risk, Inter-American development bank, Research Department Workingpapers  Series, .
Cova, T. J., Longley, P. A., Goodchild, M. F., Maguire, D. J., Rhind, D. W., 1999, GIS in emergency management In: geographical information systems: Principles, techniques, applications, and management, John Wiley & Sons, New York.
Cutter, S. L. and Emrich, C. T., 2006, Moral hazard, social catastrophe: The changing face of vulnerability along the hurricane coasts, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 604, No. 1, PP. 102- 112.
Cutter, Susan L., Boruff, Bryan J. and W. Lynn Shirley, 2003, Social vulnerability to environmental hazards, Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 84, No. 2, PP. 242- 261.
Ebert. A., Kerle. N., 2009, Urban social vulnerability assessment with physical proxies and spatial metrics derived from air- and spaceborne imagery and GIS data, Net Hazards, Vol. 48, No. 2, PP. 275- 294.
Ebrahimian Ghajary, Y., Alesheikh, A. A., Modiri, M., Hosnavi, R. and Abbasi, M., 2014, Modeling the vulnerability of urban buildings using Delphi and AHP methods in GIS (Case study: Region 6 of Tehran municipility), Vol. 23, No. 91, PP. 5- 20. (In Persian)
Esri, 2010, Arcgisdesktop 10 help. /10. 0/help.
Faraji Sabokbar, H. A., Nadi, B. and Rezaie Narimisa, M., 2017, Factors affecting vulnerability zoning district 6 of Tehran and vulnerability in the face of natural disasters, Jourbal of Urban Management Studies, Vol. 8, No. 28, PP. 1- 11. (In Persian)
Fiedrich, F., Yeletaysi, S. and Ozceylan D., 2009, A framework to integrate social vulnerability into catastrophic natural disaster preparedness planning, Proceeding of Tiems, Annual Conference Istanbul, PP. 380- 389.
Foroughi, S., 2010, Social vulnerability assessments ancient cities against Earthquake using GIS, Case study: City of Zenjan historical texture, MA Thesis, University of Zanjan. (In Persian)
Ghanavati, E., Ghalami, Sh., Abdoli, A., 2009, Empowerment of urban crisis management in order to reduce natural disasters (earthquake) Case study: Khorramabad, Journal of Physical Geography, Vol. 1, No. 4, PP. 15- 24. (In Persian)
Givehchi, S., 2009, Provide analysis and management patterns in urban disasters resulting from environmental hazards, Case study: Region 6 of Tehran, PhD Thesis in Geography and Urban Planning, Tehran University. (In Persian)
Hagenlocher, M. & Castro, M., 2015, Mapping malaria risk and vulnerability in the united republic of Tanzania: A spatial explicit model, Population Health Metrics, Vol. 13, No. 1, PP. 1- 14.
Hagenlocher, M., Holbling, D., Kienberger, S., Vanhuysse, S. and Zeil, P., 2015, Spatial assessment of social vulnerability in the context of landmines and explosive remnants of war in Battambang province, Cambodia, International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction, Vol. 15 No. 1, PP. 148– 161.
Hataminejad, H. and Eshghabadi, F., 2009, Urban earthquake vulnerability assessment, case study: Region 10 of Tehran Municipality, Journal of Human Geography Research, Vol. 42, No. 68, PP. 1- 20. (In Persian)
Jalilpour, Sh., 2010, Urban earthquake vulnerability assessment using GIS (Case study: Khoy old city), MA Thesis, University of Zanjan. (In Persian)
Maita, N. and Bronowicz, J. B., 2007, Mapping social vulnerability to earthquake hazards by using analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and GIS in Tehran city, Geospatial World,
Maleki, S., Mavadat, E., Firoz, M. A., 2014, Social vulnerability assessment and ranking of cities in earthquake TOPSIS model and GIS (A case study City of Yazd), Journal Spatial Planning, Vol. 18, No. 3, PP. 99- 124. (In Persian)
Mândrescu, N., Radulian, M. and M˘armureanu, G., 2007, Geological, geophysical and seismological criteria for local response evaluation in Bucharest urban area, Soil. Dyn. Earthq. Eng., Vol. 27, No. 4, PP. 367– 393.
Ngo, E. B., 2001, When disasters and age collide: Reviewing vulnerability of the elderly, Natural Hazards Review, Vol. 2, No. 2, PP. 80- 89.
Qadiri, Mahmoud, 2002, Application of urban planning (land use) in reducing the vulnerability of cities against earthquake: A case study in Tehran, MA Thesis in geography and urban planning , Tarbiat Modarres University. (In Persian)
Qadiri, M., 2008, The relationship between cities and the social construction of vulnerability to earthquakes, Case Study: Tehran metropolitan areas, PhD Thesis in geography and urban planning, Tarbiat Modarres University. (In Persian)
Qadiri, Mahmoud, 2010, Explain of the social and spatial differentiation of vulnerability of Tehran metropolitan against earthquake, Proceedings of the Fourth International Congress of the Islamic World Geographers, Zahedan, 1-17. (In Persian)
Qadiri, M., 2015, The role of social vulnerability and risk attitude in explaining differences in Tehran against earthquakes, Journal of Geography and Urban Planning, Vol. 3, No. 6, PP. 1- 16. (In Persian)
Qadiri, M., Roknoddin eftekhari, A., Shayan, S. and Parehizghar, A., 2012, Explanation of focus of the socio-spatial vulnerability of Tehran against earthquake, Journal of Spatial Planning, Vol. 16, No. 3, PP. 31- 54. (In Persian)
Rahimi, N., 2016, The central part of metropolitan housing of physical vulnerability against earthquake risk (Case study: Region 6 of Tehran Municipality), Thesis, Faculty of Humanities, Islamic azad university (Central Tehran branch). (In Persian)
Rashed, T., 2003, Measuring the environmental context of urbanvulnerability to earthquak hazards: An integrative remote sensing andGIS approach, UC Santa Barbara and San Diego State University.
Soleimani, M., 2014, Physical urban management strategies in the context of crisis management policies (Region one of Tehran Municipality), MA Thesis, Tehran University. (In Persian)
Sotoudeh, B., 2001, Land use planning and reform pathways to secure against earthquakes, MA Thesis, Shiraz University. (In Persian)
Statistical Center of Iran, 2015, Price information and rental housing in the Tehran City, Iran Statistics Center pub, Tehran, Iran. (In Persian)
Taghvaie, M. and Ali-Mohammadi, N., 2006, Earthquake and its consequences, and the crises of the cities, Building Journal, Vol.11, No. 27, PP. 83- 107. (In Persian)
UNDP, 2004, Reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development.the preparation team for reducing disaster risk: A challenge for development a global report, John S. Swift pub, New York.
UNESCO, 2010, Surveys and Activities of Post-Earthquake Disaster, UNESCO pub., Paris.
Zangi Abadi, A., Mohammadi J., Safaee, H. and Qaydrahmaty, S., 2008, Analysis of the vulnerability of urban housing against earthquake risk, Case Study: Isfahan citizens, Geography and Development, Vol.  6, No. 12, pp. 61 -79. (In Persian)