Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis cross-impact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)

Document Type : Research Paper

Authors

1 uni-isfahan

2 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran

Abstract

The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural
production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.

Keywords

Main Subjects

References

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Human Geography Research
Volume 52, Issue 2
July 2020
Pages 657-674

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History

  • Receive Date: 15 March 2017
  • Revise Date: 20 January 2019
  • Accept Date: 20 January 2019

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