Analysis of the structure and strategy of the actors of the future order of the Middle East region

Document Type : Research Paper


Department of Islamic Studies, Faculty of Basic Sciences, Khatam al-Anbia Army Defense University, Tehran, Iran.


Extended Abstract


. This study identifies, analyzes and explains the structural divergence and convergence among the influential actors in the Middle East region through a semi-structured and expert questionnaire and using the software tool of Mactor, seeks to answer the question of how the future patterns of Middle East order will be in the future? Among the patterns of regional order,the preferred scenario for power is blocs change or continuity? The research findings indicate that a wide range of scenarios can be proposed regarding regional order, but the most probable scenario is instability and change in regional order and moving from a bipolar order pattern to a multipolar model in this region.


One of the future research methods to understand the convergence and divergence between actors is the method of structural analysis or actors' strategy. This method, which is in the category of quantitative futures research methods and is done through Mactor software, is a multi-subject-multiplayer model and is used when there are several actors in front of a number of subjects whose evolution in the future is uncertain and difficult to predict. The purpose of these models is to gain a better understanding of these situations and how they evolve by calculating and considering the interests and goals of different stakeholders and the relationships between them. The method of structural analysis and actor strategy consists of six main steps: identifying key variables (setting goals), identifying effective actors in the environment, forming a matrix of actors-objectives, forming a matrix of actors-actors, entering data into the matrix, processing and outputting the model

Result and discussion

Software analysis of actors' perspectives and their goals reveals several basic goals:

1. Despite the influence of actors on each other regarding the future of order in the Middle East, there is a conflict of interest between the actors regarding regional issues. The conflict of interests of the actors has led to a conflict in their goals in the Middle East regional order, and this conflict of interests and goals has shaken the current patterns of order in the region.

2. The majority of actors in the region and beyond, whose activism has a significant impact on the equations of the Middle East order, do not consider the current order model, ie the bipolar balance between the Salafi order led by Saudi Arabia and the revolutionary resistance order led by Iran, as their preferred order. In fact, the formation and consolidation of this order in the past decades in the Middle East has been caused by emergencies in the region, and regional and trans-regional actors have been forced to accept this pattern due to special historical circumstances. In the current situation and the complexity of international and regional developments during the transition period, each of these actors seeks to create their own role and status in the region and the cycle of global power; Therefore, it is natural for the actors in this region today to consider the current order as an imposed order and to move towards changing the current order.

3. If the existing bipolar regional order continues, the costs of other regional and trans-regional actors in balancing power will increase. Claimants of regional power in the Middle East in today's region, which has become much more diverse than in previous decades, and each of these actors who today see themselves as a regional power, their role-playing is overshadowed by two poles of regional powerand they have to play in the direction of these two spectrums of regional power in order to influence the regional equations.

4. Intra-regional and supra-regional actors seek a multipolar balance through instability in the region and changes in the construction of the current pattern. The preferred model of actors within the region, who today play a lesser role in the equations of this region, is the model of multipolar order, and in the next stage, if this order is not realized, they will follow the model of regional participatory collective order. However, for trans-regional actors, the model of regional participatory collective order is not desirable at all because it reduces their impact on regional equations and brings the region to a model of relative stability. In the model of a multipolar order, regional instability increases in the light of tensions and conflicts, and each power bloc will seek its own advantages, which will increase the involvement of transregional powers in regional equations.


are among the current characteristics of the regional and international environment. It is natural to change the patterns of regional order in the context of the transition to world order. What is unnatural is the lack of awareness of countries of their position in the set of regional order and global trends, And the principles of tools and capacities at the disposal of countries and provide an effective platform for regional and global competitors, which will lead to the loss of the position of countries in the future of regional and global order. Because one of the foundations of countries' role-playing in future global equations is to consolidate and consolidate their position within the regional order. In the general answer to the research questions, it can be said that according to the analysis of the available data, the patterns of regional order will change and the continuation of the existing order will be very costly even for the bipolar power of the regions. In contrast, Saudi Arabia tends to maintain the existing order and then the hegemony of the desired order, and Turkey and the supporters of the Ekhwans are also seeking to formalize their regional order through instability in the developments and patterns of regional order, and the transition to a bipolar order will be the only way to revive the Ekhwan. Trends and events indicate that the regional order is on the verge of change, and the actors of the regional order must adjust their policies and actions to the new conditions.


Main Subjects

  1. ابراهیمی، نبی اله. (1386). الگوی نظم منطقه‌ای بازیگران خاورمیانه. مرکز پژوهش‌های مجلس شورای اسلامی، دفتر مطالعات سیاسی، شماره مسلسل 8715.
  2. بوزان، باری. (1378) مردم، دولت‌ها و هراس. تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
  3. بوزان، باری. (1381). خاورمیانه: ساختاری همواره کشمکش زا. ترجمه احمد صادقی، فصلنامه سیاست خارجی، 16 (3)، 680-633.
  4. بوزان، باری و ویور، الی. (1388). مناطق و قدرت‌ها: ساختار امنیت بین‌الملل. ترجمه رحمان قهرمان پور، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
  5. بوزان، باری. (1388). مشکل امنیت ملی در جهان سوم. مترجم: فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، 2، 282-253.
  6. بوزان، باری. (1388). چارچوبی تازه برای تحلیل امنیت. ترجمه علیرضا طیب، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
  7. جعفری ولدانی، اصغر. (۱۳۸۸). چالش‌ها و منازعات در خاورمیانه. تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
  8. صالحی، حمید. (1391). بیداری اسلامی و تکوین نظم نوین منطقه‌ای در خاورمیانه. فصلنامه مطالعات راهبردی، 15(1)، 102-79.
  9. عبدالله خانی، علی. (1383). نظریه‌های امنیت، مقدمه‌ای بر طرح‌ریزی دکترین امنیت ملی. تهران: مؤسسه فرهنگی- مطالعاتی و تحقیقات بین‌الملل ابرار معاصر.
  10. عطایی، فرهاد و منصوری مقدم، محمد. (1391). تبارشناسی سیاست خارجی عربستان سعودی: راهبردی واقع‌گرایانه بر بستری هویتی. فصلنامه روابط خارجی، 5 (1)، 168-133
  11. فاست، لوئیس. (1387). روابط بین‌المللی خاورمیانه. مترجم احمد سلطانی نژاد، تهران: وزارت امور خارجه.
  12. گلن، جروم و گوردن، تئودرجی. (1394). مرجع روش‌شناسی آینده‌پژوهی. ترجمه ابوذر سیفی کلستان، تهران: انتشارات فرهیختگان دانشگاه علوم پزشکی بقیه‌الله.
  13. ماه‌پیشانیان، مهسا. (1393). تأثیر فروپاشی نظم اخوانی بر مجموعه امنیت منطقه‌ای خاورمیانه. فصلنامه مطالعات سیاسی جهان اسلام، 3 (9)، 115-
  14. مورگان، پاتریک. (1381). نظم‌های منطقه‌ای، امنیت سازی در جهانی نوین. ترجمه سید جلال دهقانی فیروزآبادی، تهران: پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.



  1. Abdullah Khani, A. (2004).Security Theories, An Introduction to National Security Doctrine Design, Tehran: Abrar Institute for Contemporary International Cultural Studies and Research.]in Persian[
  2. Ataiee, F,& Mansouri Moghadam, M. (2012).Genealogy of Saudi Arabia's foreign policy: a realistic strategy on the identity context. Quarterly Journal of Foreign Relations, Year 5(1).133-168.]in Persian[
  3. -Boukhars,A., Brown, N.j., et al (2014). The Egypt Effect: Sharpened Tensions, Reshuffled Alliances.
  4. -Buzan, B. (1999). People, State And Fear: An Agenda For International Security Studies In The Post-Cold War Era, London, Harvester Wheatsheaf Publication
  5. Buzan, B. (2002). Middle East: An Always Conflicting Structure, translated by Ahmad Sadeghi. Foreign Policy Quarterly, Year 16(3) 633-680.]in Persian[
  6. Buzan, B. (2000). People, State and Fear, Translator: Research Institute for Strategic Studies, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies..]in Persian[
  7. Buzan, B, & Weaver, O. (2009).Regions and Powers: The structure of international security, translated by Rahman Ghahramanpour, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies..]in Persian[
  8. Buzan, B. (2009).The Problem of National Security in the Third World, Translator: Strategic Studies Quarterly, No. 2, 282-253.]in Persian[
  9. Buzan, B& et al. (2009).A New Framework for Security Analysis, translated by Alireza Tayeb, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies.]in Persian[
  10. Ebrahimi, N. (2007).The Model of Regional Order of Middle Eastern Actors, Research Center of the Islamic Consultative Assembly. Political Studies Office, serial number 8715.]in Persian[
  11. Fawcett, L. (2008).Middle East International Relations, translated by Ahmad Soltaninejad, Tehran, Ministry of Foreign Affairs..]in Persian[
  12. Jafari Valdani,A. (2009). Challenges and Conflicts in the Middle East, Tehran, Research Institute for Strategic Studies.]in Persian[
  13. Glenn, J.,& Gordon, T. (2015).Future Research Methodology Reference, translated by Abuzar Seifi Kalestan, Tehran, Farhikhtegan Publications, Baqiyatallah University of Medical Sciences.]in Persian[
  14. Morgan, P. (2002). Regional order, security in the new world, Translated by Seyed Jalal Dehghani Firoozabadi, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies..]in Persian[
  15. Mahpishanian, M. (2014). The Impact of the Collapse of the Order of the Muslim Brotherhood on the Middle East Security Complex. Quarterly Journal of Political Studies of the Islamic World, Third Year(. 9) 97-115..]in Persian[
  16. Salehi, H. (2012). Islamic Awakening and the Development of a New Regional Order in the Middle East.Strategic Studies, Vol. 15, (1)79-102.]in Persian[