Document Type : Research Paper
PhD in urban planning, Shahid Beheshti University
Associate Professor, Faculty of Earth Sciences, Shahid Beheshti University
Master of Urban Planning, Gilan University
Introduction: The first attempts at survival analysis were made by the famous astronomer Edmund Halley. He provided a table showing what percentage of people die at any age. Today such a table is called a "life table". Because in the first such attempts, the outcome being examined was the death or survival of individuals, the method of analyzing these data was called survival analysis. Later, this method was widely used in life sciences, especially medicine. But today, survival analysis is also used in most scientific studies, which include examining how long it takes for an event to occur, such as the loss of life in a settlement. Paying attention to the perspective of survival and sustainability of regions is considered as one of the most important concerns of urban and regional planners. Because the ability to maintain and attract population and activities at the local level on the one hand and the establishment of functional links (local and transnational) and proper role-playing in the space of flows on the other hand depends on the survival and stability of city-centered areas. The survival and sustainability of city-centered areas depends on the biological components (geographical characteristics such as time, location, climate, water resources), economic (livelihood pattern) and technology level of each community. Although this perspective is clear and long in developed countries, it is very vague and short in developing and underdeveloped countries. Therefore, this study aims to apply survival analysis in the form of sustainable development attitudes toward cities and regions. In order to be able to load the activity and population more carefully with the areas.
Methodology: This descriptive-analytical cross-sectional study was performed in a prospective manner on all settlements (urban-rural) in Qazvin province. Since the background and source of survival analysis in urban and regional studies has been based on the Cohort life model, in this paper, an innovative approach has been developed to promote new methods of biostatistics for urban and regional analysis. Therefore, the necessity of using survival analysis in regional design and planning is important from two aspects. First, attention to the current systems of activity and livelihood of the regions at different levels and forms that give a true understanding of the current vital situation. He then took a step towards foresight in order to establish new functional links in line with the vision of life and survival in the network space of streams.
Accordingly, to measure the survival rate, a database of the number of rural settlements in 5 census periods was used. Since Qazvin province has been established for almost 3 decades, the demographic information of some places was followed up by a survey for a year and the necessary information was completed; Finally, it was analyzed using different statistical methods in SPSS software. To show the survival rate, Kaplan Meyer method and to compare the average survival in different settlements, color lag test was used and to show the factors affecting the survival rate, Cox regression model and survival function diagram were used.
Results: Based on studies and field surveys of settlements in Qazvin region, water consumption in the saline basin is dependent on groundwater and surface water provides a small part of agricultural water consumption. In Sefidrood Basin, due to the mountainous nature of the region, water consumption along the rivers is provided by surface water and elevations from groundwater sources, which are mainly springs. Due to the vastness of the saline basin and its population coverage, which covers more than 90% of the province's population, as well as the concentration of industrial, service and agricultural products has led to uncontrolled abstraction of groundwater resources. Quantitative and qualitative changes (water salinity, pollution and solute change) of water on the one hand and land subsidence on the other hand indicate its super-critical conditions; Also, the security of information related to the quantity and quality of water confirms the above; Therefore, the survival analysis of plain settlements in Qazvin region depends on the biological component (water resources and water resources status); Due to the excessive use of groundwater resources in some parts of these areas, the phenomenon of subsidence (Buinzahra plain) has occurred and the change of cultivation pattern from rainfed cereals to the cultivation of irrigated crops, has endangered the survival of these areas. The critical and super-critical situation of water resources also corresponds to the plain parts of the region. Survival analysis of socio-economic component (rural livelihood) indicates that villages with agricultural livelihood model have lower survival due to dependence on water. These villages also correspond to the plain villages such as Qazvin, Abik, Alborz and Buinzahra.
Conclusion: In this regard, with the analysis of the survival of settlements in Qazvin region, with components such as: demographic component (population indicators, age, location of settlements), biological component (water resources indicators, water resources status), socio-economic component (subsistence model indicators) Has been identified as an effective component in the survival and stability of settlements in Qazvin region. According to the survival analysis and field survey, population decline and depopulation of mountainous villages in the north of the region was first accompanied by a wave of industrialization (construction of Alborz Industrial City) and then due to access to the provincial center and lack of amenities in the village. In mountainous settlements, the demographic component (village location) has played a role in endangering the survival and stability of the settlements; This has made these settlements less viable. However, in the mountainous villages of the south, they survive more due to their long distance from the provincial capital.
Based on the above, it can be concluded that the outlook for survival in the cities of Qazvin, Abyek and Buinzahra is very short due to unsustainable development trends and destructive ecological relations in recent decades. Prospects for survival are better in Avaj, Alborz and Takestan counties.