الگوی مدیریت مقصدهای گردشگری طبیعت محور در مواجهه با تغییرات اقلیمی و محیطی

Extended Abstract

Introduction

Nature-based tourism, a key sector of global tourism, involves activities in natural landscapes. It pursues sustainable development alongside environmental education, resource protection, and indigenous cultural experiences. However, due to deep dependence on natural resources, these destinations are increasingly vulnerable to climatic and environmental changes.

Climatic change refers to long-term shifts in weather patterns, temperature, and precipitation, mainly caused by human activities like emissions, industrialization, and deforestation. These changes cause global warming, altered weather, ice melt, and sea-level rise. Environmental change, closely related, includes biodiversity loss, habitat destruction, pollution, and erosion.

Once-stable natural sites are now highly vulnerable to climatic and environmental changes. These disrupt tourist perceptions, demand patterns, and destination sustainability. Threats like droughts, forest fires, and vegetation loss reduce ecological appeal and functioning, necessitating adaptive strategies like nature-based solutions.

Despite extensive international research, most studies focus on developed countries. Iran's literature is very limited, descriptive, and lacks localized frameworks. Iranian nature-based destinations face unique vulnerability due to arid/semi-arid climate, centralized management, and socio-economic challenges. This study identifies factors affecting management of these destinations facing climatic and environmental changes, providing a localized model for Iran. The main question: What factors influence this management?



Methodology

This qualitative, exploratory study provides a management model for nature-based tourism destinations facing climatic and environmental changes. It is applied research.

Participants included 27 experts in physical geography, environment, meteorology, tourism, crisis management, remote sensing, watershed management, and engineering fields. This interdisciplinary range addresses the complex research problem. Purposive sampling and researcher networks identified participants based on scientific expertise and practical experience. Interviews continued until theoretical saturation (24 interviews), plus three additional interviews confirming no new themes.

Semi-structured interviews were based on literature review and expert consultation. Questions covered challenges, management strategies, local community roles, technology, and resilience indicators. Open-ended questions allowed diverse views. In-person interviews (50–60 minutes each) were recorded and transcribed.

Thematic analysis used a three-level model (basic, organizing, global themes) across six stages: familiarization, coding, searching for basic themes, reviewing themes, defining organizing themes, and final reporting. Coding was done by the researcher and reviewed by two others; disagreements resolved through discussion.

Lincoln and Guba's criteria (credibility, transferability, dependability, confirmability) ensured validity. Member checking ensured credibility. Comprehensive descriptions ensured transferability. Dependability was ensured by documenting all stages and using re-coding (over 85% agreement). Raw documents and codes were maintained for confirmability.



Results and Discussion

Thematic analysis extracted 60 basic themes, merged into 12 organizing themes, forming 4 global themes: destination management and organization, sustainable infrastructure and conservation, resource management and sustainable transportation, and monitoring and education.

The first global theme, "integrated destination management and organization," includes planning, monitoring, and hazard preparedness. Its organizing themes: destination management and planning, organizing tourism activities, and crisis and climate risk management. Basic themes include determining carrying capacity, preparing climate management plans, zoning destinations, digital reservation systems, licensing tours, designating routes, hazard mapping, early warning systems, and reinforcing vulnerable points. Managing nature-based destinations under climatic uncertainty requires proactive control systems.

The second global theme, "sustainable infrastructure and ecological protection," forms the physical adaptation foundation. Organizing themes: ecosystem protection, water/soil restoration, and sustainable infrastructure. Basic themes include restoring native vegetation, restricting access to sensitive habitats, fire management, sediment dams, water quality monitoring, preventing illegal extraction, solar energy systems, low-consumption sanitary facilities, and low-carbon materials. Ecosystem restoration and low-carbon infrastructure reduce vulnerability and enable long-term development.

The third global theme, "resource management and green economy transportation," addresses operational and economic aspects. Organizing themes: waste/pollution management, green economy/resource management, and sustainable transport. Basic themes: waste separation stations, restricting single-use plastics, wastewater treatment, financial incentives for low-carbon businesses, entry fees based on environmental impact, carbon footprint calculation, electric transport, peripheral parking restricting private vehicles, and bicycle paths. Conservation requires modifying consumption patterns, managing waste, and organizing tourist mobility.

The fourth global theme, "technological monitoring and stakeholder empowerment," enables strategy implementation. Organizing themes: technology/environmental monitoring, local community participation, and tourist education. Basic themes: air/water quality sensors, drones for monitoring, GIS for vegetation/erosion, mobile apps for reporting violations, joint management committees, community education on conservation, educational signs, climate awareness campaigns, and training local guides. Modern monitoring technologies, community participation, and targeted education enhance socio-ecological resilience.

Findings analyzed through resilience, social capital, and institutional theories show successful management requires an integrated approach. Resilience theory emphasizes forecasting and response capacity. Social capital theory highlights dependence on community participation and trust networks. Institutional theory demonstrates applying three institutional pillars in destination management.



Conclusion

This study identified factors affecting management of nature-based tourism destinations facing climatic and environmental changes and provided a localized model. Effective management requires a multi-dimensional, participatory, sustainability-based approach. The four global themes offer a comprehensive framework for policy and action.

This research is innovative by providing Iran's first localized framework, integrating resilience, social capital, and institutional theories, and offering an operational roadmap for policymakers and managers.

The framework shows building resilience requires five components: proactive management planning, ecosystem protection/restoration, sustainable low-carbon infrastructure, optimal resource management (water, soil, waste), community/tourist participation, and modern monitoring/education technologies.

This integrated approach reduces climatic vulnerability, preserves natural assets, improves tourist experiences, increases community participation, and enables sustainable development of Iran's nature-based tourism destinations. Unlike previous research focused on developed countries, Iran's destinations require local strategies. This model provides a starting point for moving from descriptive to operational management approaches.



Funding

This work is based upon research funded by Iran National Science Foundation (INSF) under project No.4047167.



Authors’ Contribution

In the writing of this article, Saeideh Esmaili was responsible for study design, data analysis, drafting the initial manuscript, and final editing; Fatemeh Irilouzadeh undertook data collection, literature review, and drafting the initial manuscript; and Sajad Ferdowsi performed data interpretation, critical revision of the content, and final editing.



Conflict of Interest

The authors declared no conflict of interest.



Acknowledgments

We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this paper.