عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]چکیده [English]
Our country to its geographical position is one of the most susceptible regions of the world in to natural disasters especially earthquake. Iran ranks as 7th country in Asia and 13th in the world in respect of susceptibility to the unexpected events resulting from geophysical risks and particularly earthquake such that because of location of most of overpopulated rural and urban settlements in the mountainsides of Alborz and Zagros, 32% of the area, 70% of population, and 67% of gross domestic production (GDP) in these regions are subject to high risk of earthquake. Therefore, to avoid increasing susceptibility of societies to earthquake, it is essential to identify their capacities as the strengths of the society/region for showing proper reaction to the unexpected events for the purpose of construction a safe route for sustainable development in future. To this end, emphasizing on role of making capacity in order to lower susceptibility to earthquake in rural areas of Khodabandeh Township as one of the centers prone to having earthquakes in Iran, researchers have intended to earn a correct understanding of magnitude of earthquakes in the intended region in addition to clarify the role of capacity-building in reduction the effects of earthquake.
From the theoretical view, a sustainable society has capability of tolerance of intensive geophysical processes (earthquake) and immediate recovery after occurrence of such unexpected events. Therefore, stability of a molecule depends on precise planning and organization of capacities of society which helps both improve the impacts of unexpected events and facilitate recovery processes. To this end, the capacity of covering physical, organizational, social, and economic tools has been defined which should be achieved by those who enjoy management skills. Taking this definition into account, making capacity as a process of improving the capacities of people, groups, and societies include such cases as administration, networks, links, persuading innovations, facilitation, education, and supplying sources to encounter with natural disasters.
This research has used descriptive and analytical method based on field studies and is of applied type. Therefore, to clarify the concept of capacity in the villages under study, taking definitions provided in theoretical principles in social, economical, organizational, and structural-environmental aspects into account, capacity of encountering with earthquake has been measured according to Likert scale.
To analyze the data obtained from statistical methods based on comparison of averages, Friedman test, Chi-square test, variance analysis, and correlation coefficients in SPSS software package have been used. Statistical population of research includes 72 villages of Khodabandeh Township damaged by the earthquake in 2002 of which 37 villages have been selected using Chocran formula by stratified random method. To complete a questionnaire distributed among households residing in the sample villages, stratified random method based on criteria such as income, housing, type of construction, social class, etc. have been used for sampling. 331 households out of 12100 households residing in these villages have been selected by Chocran sampling method.
Results and Discussion
- According to Friedman Test, there is a meaningful difference of 0.01 ? among mean capacities of structural, organizational, economic, and social sample households. The highest average ranking is allocated to social capacities and the lowest belongs to organizational capacities which indicate that organizational, economic, and structural-organizational capacities of the sample households are lower than the average limit.
- Analysis of numerical average of structural-environmental, organizational, economic, and social capacities of the sample households based on single sample t-test indicates low capacities of encountering with damages arising from earthquake in the villages of the intended region such that scale of the existing capacities ranges between 1 to 5 (based on Likert method) has been estimated under ideal conditions (4) for all scales.
- Analysis of statistical relations between susceptibility rate of the sample households to earthquake and total capacity index separated by 37 villages under study based on Chi-square test according to the contingency table indicates a statistical meaningful difference between dependent variables of susceptibility to earthquake and independent variable of total capacity index. Therefore, considering existence of reverse relation, it is accepted that increase in economic, social, organizational, and structural-environmental capacities may decrease susceptibility of the sample villages to the earthquake.
-In spatial analysis, it is possible to accept different total capacities of the villages for encountering with earthquake because variance analysis made by explaining the existing capacities indicates meaningful changes in 0.01 ?.
The result of the present research indicates low economic, social, and organizational-structural capacities of rural settlements in the intended region such that a negative impact mainly dominates on the above four capacities except organizational one. This means that, based on different capacities for encountering with damages arising from earthquake, there is a meaningful difference in intensity of earthquake. Moreover, analysis of statistical relations between rate of susceptibility of the sample households to earthquake as well as total capacity index indicates a meaningful statistical difference between dependent variable of susceptibility rate to earthquake and independent variable of total capacity index. However, it can be said that increase in economic, social, organizational, and structural-environmental capacities have reduced susceptibility rate of the sample villages to earthquake.