مدل سازی آسیب پذیری بافتهای شهری تحت سناریوهای مختلف به منظور مدیریت بحران در برابر زلزله: مطالعه موردی منطقه یک شهرداری تهران

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری مدیریت بحران دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی

2 استاد گروه مدیریت دانشگاه شهید اشرفی اصفهانی

3 استادیار گروه مدیریت دانشگاه اصفهان

چکیده

چکیده
افزایش باورنکردنی بحرانها و فراوانی و پیچیدگی آنها، این رویکرد نگاه عامیانه و سنتی به آسیب پذیری را دچار تزلزل کرده و نیاز به رویکرد جامع‌تری از آسیب‌پذیری و مدیریت بحران را مطرح کرده است. با توجه به اهمیت موضوع ارزیابی آسیب پذیری کالبدی شهرها در مباحث مربوط به سیستم های اطلاعات مکانی شهری، در این تحقیق سعی شده با به کارگیری توابع آسیب پذیری در برابر زلزله با استفاده از داده های مکانی و توصیفی، اجزا و عناصر اصلی و رفتاری ساختمانی و تعیین تاثیر هر کدام از معیارهای به کار رفته در میزان آسیب پذیری، مدل سازی و ریزپهنه بندی آسیب وارده به بافت کالبدی منطقه یک شهر تهران پرداخته شود. نتایج حاصله نشان می دهد که منطقه یک، در سه سناریو مختلف با شدت زلزله 6،7و8 هم به لحاظ ساختمانی و هم به لحاظ اقتصادی دارای بیشترین میزان آسیب پذیری متوسط به بالا می باشد که آن به خاطر بافت فرسوده و ساختمانهای که در چند دهه قبل در این منطقه ساخته شده است، بدین ترتیب می توان به این نتیجه رسید که این منطقه نسبت به بافت های نسبت جدید که ساخته شده به بحران طبیعی مثل زلزله احتمالی که ممکن است منطقه را فرا بگیرد باز هم آسیب پذیر می باشد. در مدلسازی سناریو های مختلف به این نتیجه رسیدیم که سناریوها به خاطر نزدیک بودن میزان زلزله در واحد منطقه مورد مطالعه نتایج تغییرات محسوسی نداشته است. اما در هر سه سناریو حاکی از این است که میزان آسیب پذیری در منطقه مورد مطالعه ناشی از بافت فرسوده و میزان ساختامانهای که در چند دهه اخیر ساخته شده ان می باشد.
لغات کلیدی: آسیب پذیری، منطقه یک، سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، فرایند تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، شهر تهران، سناریو

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Urban Tissue Urban Modeling under Different Scenarios for Managing Crisis Against Earthquakes: Case Study of Tehran Municipality Area

نویسندگان [English]

  • Hassan Poyan 1
  • ali sanayei 2
  • azarnosh ansari 3
1 اصفهان
2 Isfahan university
3 Isfahan university
چکیده [English]

Abstract
   The unbelievable increase in crises and the frequency and complexity of these crises has undermined this traditional and traditional approach to vulnerability and called for a more comprehensive approach to vulnerability and crisis management. Considering the importance of the issue of urban physical vulnerability assessment in urban spatial information systems, in this research, we have tried to apply the functions of earthquake vulnerability by using spatial and descriptive data, components and main elements of behavioral construction And determine the impact of each of the criteria used in the vulnerability, modeling, and microtubation of damage to the body tissue of a Tehran city. The results show that the first one in three different scenarios with 6.7 and 8. earthquake intensity both in terms of construction and economically has the highest average to high vulnerability due to the deteriorated texture and buildings that have been in decades Previously, it was built in this area, thus it can be concluded that this area is still vulnerable to new proportions that have been built into a natural disaster such as a possible earthquake that may catch the area. In modeling different scenarios we concluded that the scenarios due to the close vicinity of the earthquake in the area of ​​the study area did not result in significant changes. But in all three scenarios, the vulnerability in the study area is due to the deteriorated texture and the amount of construction that has been made in recent decades.
Key words: vulnerability, area one, geographic information system, hierarchical analysis process, Tehran city, scenario
Introduction
The increasing trend in the severity and extent of crises, crisis management and the reduction of vulnerability has led the people and the community under their control to further thinking. As humans from past times have learned the experience of living in villages, small towns and large cities, they have built settlements in accordance with the technological and socio-economic needs of the time. In recent decades, major changes have taken place in the theoretical views of crisis and vulnerability. For example, contrary to the behavioral viewpoint of the crisis, according to the structural viewpoint, crises are no longer intense events simply caused by natural factors, but they are now considered as unresolved problems of development. In fact, today, the development and communication crisis of infinity Close and complex, have become a common and popular belief. And it emphasizes the fact that crisis development and management are both focused on reducing vulnerability. Therefore, in recent decades, especially from the 1970s onward, the emphasis on hazard has gradually shifted to emphasis on crises, and increasing attention has been paid to vulnerability and causal change has changed. Such an attitude is vulnerability, risk and crisis, which considers emergency response with a top-down approach and without using the crisis community participation in the process of vulnerability and management of urban crises. But the unbelievable increase in the cost and complexity of crises has shaken this traditional and traditional approach to vulnerability and has called for a more comprehensive approach to vulnerability and crisis management. In the same vein, with increasing focus on vulnerability, since the 1970s, vulnerability to social risk factors and risks has shown a significant shift from focusing on socioeconomic and political roots.
As a result of these increasing changes in the structure and functioning of city and urbanization, today vulnerability has gained a more prominent role in crisis management, and more attention is paid to physical and physical factors. Therefore, the policy of achieving vulnerability from the general risk factors to the social and economic details of change Which has its point of reference in cities, especially in cities where the earthquake is at risk and its risk is greater and the need for physical vulnerability assessment is felt. One of the main reasons for the existence of a large number of wounded and victims after natural disasters such as floods, earthquakes, etc. can be the lack of precise planning in this area for cities with potential hazard, including Tehran. Of course, in recent years, efforts have been made in this area to set a clear future for managing the Tehran metropolitan crisis. Considering the fact that the district of a Tehran municipality is one of the strategic areas of this city, this study seeks to provide vulnerability analysis according to the conditions of the region. In sum, the achievement of sustainable development and the overall reduction of vulnerability in its physical and spatial dimensions, due to the crisis and the issue of vulnerability in the metropolis of Tehran, characterized by socio-spatial differentiation and its concentration among the particular strata and areas of the city, requires the study of factors Effective on the socio-spatial differentiation of vulnerability and its degree of variation in society and space. The importance of the issue and its failure to be taken into account in the development and crisis management plans of the country will make the study twofold. The increasing trend in the severity and extent of crises, crisis management and the reduction of vulnerability has led the people and the community under their control to further thinking. As humans from past times have learned the experience of living in villages, small towns and large cities, they have built settlements in accordance with the technological and socio-economic needs of the time. In recent decades, major changes have taken place in the theoretical views of crisis and vulnerability. For example, contrary to the behavioral viewpoint of the crisis, according to the structural viewpoint, crises are no longer severe events that are simply caused by natural factors, but they are now considered to be unresolved problems of development. In fact, today, the development and the extremely complex and complex communication crisis have become a common and popular belief. And it emphasizes the fact that crisis development and management are both focused on reducing vulnerability. Therefore, in recent decades, especially from the 1970s onward, the emphasis on hazard has gradually shifted to emphasis on crises, and increasing attention has been paid to vulnerability and causal change has changed.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Vulnerability
  • Region One
  • Geographic Information System
  • Tehran city
  • Scenario

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 11 شهریور 1398
  • تاریخ دریافت: 27 تیر 1398
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 11 شهریور 1398
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 11 شهریور 1398