تحلیل رابطة سطح انتظارات از دولت و تمایل جوامع محلی به اقدامات پیشگیرانه در برابر مخاطرات (مطالعة موردی: نواحی روستایی شهرستان نیشابور)

Introduction: As a whole, the world is experiencing an increase in the intensity and abundance of natural hazards, which it is a major threat to all regions. Basically, natural hazards can be recognized as a potential hazard because of the combination of disasters, vulnerability conditions and inadequate measures to mitigate the negative consequences. In fact, the natural hazard is an unexpected event that disrupts the normal functioning of a society and generally leading to loss of life, livelihoods and damage to the infrastructure of communities. Therefore, take preventive measures and preparedness for these events can greatly reduce costs. For this reason, Emphasis on risk management and to take preventive measures today is one of the most fundamental approaches in the crisis management literature. But the realization of this process, especially in rural communities and the attract of local communities to take precautionary measures, is overshadowed by many factors and obstacles, that the level of local communities' expectations of the government for crisis management and its effects is one of the most important. In communities where the government participates in all levels of risk planning and accountability and the local government has the primary responsibility for emergency response to the hazard, most people believe that "the government must take responsibility of coping with the problems due the risks". Likewise, they expect the government to be prepared and responsive to natural hazards. There is widespread agreement among economists that expectations influence people's behavior and actions. So that even if residents are aware of the environmental risk, they may believe that government planning and preparation is sufficient for risk management. So they do not feel the need to take home preparedness measures.
Methodology: the present study analyzes the impact of expectations from the government on the extent of local community interest to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. A descriptive - survey method and a questionnaire were used for this purpose. In this study, the level of analysis is rural and its unit of analysis are rural households. Fazl has been selected as the study area, which is one of the districts of Neyshabur County in Khorasan Razavi province. At first, 15 villages were selected for field study through Formula N0 and then, sample villages were selected based on the location of the villages in the hazardous areas. Research indicators and variables have been compiled according to the theoretical foundations and review of previous studies. Variable of expectations level of local communities about intervention and the role of government in the risk process have been measured the following two types of structural and non-structural approaches and variable of propensity to take preventive measures by local communities have been measured the following economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions. One-sample t-test, Pearson correlation, linear regression test, and one-way ANOVA were used to measure the purpose and data analysis. The present study has applied nature and is a descriptive-analytical research.
Results and discussion: According to the results, in the study area the tendency to preventive measures in all economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions is lower than the average level. The level of expectations of the sample communities from the government against risk indicates that these expectations are very high in both structural and non-structural sectors as well as before, during and after the risks. The results of the Pearson correlation test indicate that there is a significant relationship between the two variables of rural expectations of government and the reluctance of local communities to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. On the other hand, the results of the regression test also confirm the variable impact of rural expectations of the government on the reluctance of local communities to take precautionary measures against natural hazards. Based on the results, Willingness to take preventive measures are more prevalent among villagers whose their preferential reaction to risk is based on the documentation and archive of their experience.
Conclusion: In general, the emphasis on preventive measures before the occurrence of hazards and to take the process of risk management by local communities is one of the priorities of many governments in the process of risk management. In the meantime, the reliance on the government, or the high level of expectations of the people from government on risk management measures, has led to a significantly decrease in their reluctance and participation in preventive measures. Perhaps this level of expectation from the government about risk management can be largely attributed to the inaccurate timely management of the risk management process by government agencies and crisis management authorities, So that if the costs of rebuilding and repairing the damage are shifted to participatory preventive measures, Increasing the readiness of local communities to deal with the effects of hazards and mitigating the damages, Their level of expectations and views on government duties and the scope of these tasks were made clearer. However, one should not neglect the small villagers' financial ability to preventive measures and the status of supervisory levers. Encouraging people to take precautionary measures and be prepared for natural hazards, existence strict rules for people who have built their homes in hazardous areas, Raising public awareness of preventive measures and preparedness for natural hazards, forming voluntary and mobilizing groups from local communities and training them in emergencies to respond quickly, create funds by local people to raise funds for emergencies, these include suggestions to increase the willingness of local communities to take preventive measures In line reduce public dependence on government action. According to the results, in the study area the tendency to preventive measures in all economic, social, skill-individual and physical-environmental dimensions is lower than the average level.the present study analyzes the impact of expectations from the government on the extent of local community interest to take precautionary measures against natural hazards