بازتاب مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک ایران و افغانستان در حوضه آبریز هیرمند بر امنیت آب چاه نیمه‌ها

ABSTRACT
The water resources crisis in arid and semi-arid regions, particularly within shared river basins, represents one of the most significant geopolitical and security challenges at the regional level. The Helmand River Basin, as the primary source of water supply for the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs and the Hamoun Wetlands, constitutes the focal point of water-related tensions between Iran and Afghanistan. The continuation of these tensions may lead to extensive environmental, economic, and social consequences for eastern Iran. The importance of this issue lies in the fact that the reduction of inflows from Afghanistan has not only threatened the livelihoods of local communities but has also challenged environmental sustainability and human security in the region. The purpose of this study is to explain the mechanisms affecting the water security of the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs within the theoretical framework of hydro-hegemony and the interaction spectrum model in Iran–Afghanistan water relations. In terms of objective, the research is applied, and in terms of nature, it is descriptive–analytical and survey-based. Research data were collected using the Delphi method and expert opinions in the fields of water resources and geopolitics, and were analyzed using Micmac and Scenario Wizard software. The results of the scenario analysis indicate that the future of water security in the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs depends on the combination of these key variables and can be anticipated under three general conditions: a conflict scenario accompanied by declining water security, a fragile equilibrium scenario, and a sustainable cooperation scenario leading to enhanced water security. Accordingly, the findings suggest that strengthening multi-level water governance, restoring the Hamoun Wetlands, and increasing institutional transparency in the management of shared resources are the most effective strategies for enhancing the water security of the Chah-Nimeh reservoirs and facilitating a transition from conflict to sustainable cooperation between the two countries.
Extended Abstract
Introduction
Water has emerged as one of the most strategic and contested resources of the 21st century, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions where transboundary river basins often become focal points of geopolitical and security tensions. The Helmand River Basin, shared by Iran and Afghanistan, is a critical case of hydropolitical relations that directly affects the water security of the Sistan region in eastern Iran. This basin serves as the primary water source for the Chahnimeh reservoirs and the Hamoun Wetlands, which are vital for drinking water, agriculture, and ecological stability in Iran’s Sistan region. Over recent decades, unilateral water infrastructure projects in Afghanistan—most notably the Kamal Khan Dam—combined with climatic changes and inefficient transboundary water governance, have significantly reduced water flows into Iran. This reduction has not only threatened local livelihoods but also challenged environmental sustainability and human security in the region. The growing imbalance in water allocation and the absence of effective cooperative mechanisms have turned the Helmand Basin into a hotspot for potential conflict, with direct implications for Iran’s national and border security.
 
Methodology
This study employs a mixed-method, descriptive-analytical, and survey-based approach within the applied research framework. The theoretical foundation integrates the concepts of hydro-hegemony and the interaction spectrum model to examine power asymmetries and cooperation–conflict dynamics in Iran–Afghanistan water relations. Data collection was conducted through library research, field studies, and the Delphi method, engaging experts in water resources and geopolitics. Initially, 47 variables influencing the water security of the Chahnimeh reservoirs were identified across six dimensions: geopolitical, security, environmental, economic, social, and cultural. These variables were analyzed using structural analysis with Micmac software to determine influence–dependence relationships and identify key driving variables. Subsequently, Scenario Wizard software was utilized for foresight-based scenario planning. The states of the key variables were defined, ranging from worst-case to ideal conditions, leading to the generation and analysis of over 4,500 possible future scenarios. This two-stage analytical process enabled the identification of core variables and the construction of consistent and plausible future pathways for water security in the region.
 
Results and discussion
The structural analysis using Micmac identified eight key variables with high influence and controllability as (1) Iran’s dependency on the Helmand headwaters in Afghanistan, (2) the border proximity and security vulnerability of the Chahnimeh reservoirs, (3) the impact of Afghanistan’s water policies on Iran’s water security, (4) the economic potential of the Hamoun wetlands, (5) the role of local communities in water resource management, (6) public awareness of hydropolitical issues, (7) the influence of cross-border ethnic ties on water cooperation, and (8) the effect of ethnic conflicts in Afghanistan on its water policies. These variables form the core determinants of water security in the Sistan region.
Scenario analysis revealed three general future conditions: a conflict scenario with declining water security, a fragile equilibrium scenario, and a sustainable cooperation scenario leading to enhanced water security. The most probable and internally consistent scenario was identified as a critical crisis scenario. This scenario arises from the convergence of negative trends: continued unilateral dam construction and water diversion by Afghanistan, severe depletion of the Hamoun wetlands, reduced and unreliable water inflows into the Chahnimeh reservoirs, high vulnerability of water infrastructure due to border proximity, political and ethnic fragmentation in Afghanistan hindering transboundary cooperation, low public awareness in Iran, and weak institutional resilience. Under this crisis scenario, the Chahnimeh reservoirs face operational failure, local agricultural and economic systems collapse, environmental migration intensifies, and geopolitical tensions escalate. The feedback loops between hydrological scarcity, ecological degradation, and socio-political instability create a comprehensive threat to human and national security in eastern Iran.
 
Conclusion
The analysis underscores that the Helmand basin’s water conflict is not merely about resource scarcity, but a deeper governance and geopolitical challenge. To avoid the crisis scenario and transition toward resilience, three policy tracks are recommended:

Active Transboundary Water Diplomacy


Enforcing the 1973 Helmand Treaty with international oversight;
Engaging institutions like UNESCO, the World Bank, or the ILC for mediation;
Creating new bilateral frameworks based on mutual water benefits.


Infrastructure and Institutional Resilience


Rehabilitating water transfer systems and storage in Chahnimeh;
Investing in water recycling and desalination technologies;
Revitalizing Hamoun wetlands as an ecological-economic driver.


Social and Community Empowerment


Raising public awareness of water geopolitics;
Involving local communities in participatory water governance;
Leveraging cultural-ethnic linkages for regional cooperation.

This research concludes that water security in Sistan is inseparable from cross-border political stability, ecological sustainability, and participatory governance. Without holistic and forward-looking interventions, the region faces not only a water crisis but a multi-dimensional collapse in security, development, and social cohesion.
 
Funding
There is no funding support.
 
Authors’ Contribution
Authors contributed equally to the conceptualization and writing of the article. All of the authors approved thecontent of the manuscript and agreed on all aspects of the work declaration of competing interest none.
 
Conflict of Interest
Authors declared no conflict of interest.
 
Acknowledgments
 We are grateful to all the scientific consultants of this p