1 استادیار دانشگاه پیام نور
2 کارشناس ارشد جغرافیا و برنامهریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام نور
عنوان مقاله [English]
The purpose of this study is to investigate sustainable development of Meybod and its housing planning. To do this, in the first step, considering existing statistics and survey research, the conditions of housing in Meybod were investigated and indentified with respect to dual quantitative and qualitative dicesion in the period between 1355-85.
Considering the indices under investigation and the nature of the subject, the methodology for this research is descriptive – analytic which has used quantitative models such as standard point to differentiate among the zones, the model raw rate of prediction to estimate the number of required houses and the SOWT analysis model to investigate the existing strengths and weaknesses.
Results and Discussion
Considering the existing statistics, the conditions of housing in Meybod is identified with respect to the quantitative and qualitative indices prevalent in the period between 1355-85. and comparing them with indices in Yazd province and the whole country.
The findings indicate relatively satisfying developments of these indices in this period which has had a meaningful relation with the trend in urban sustainable development. The results show that the housing individual concentration in Meybod has been 3.81, in Yazd province 3.91 and in the country 4.19 in 1385. Family concentration in the same year has been 1.03 for Meybod and 1.07 for the country. Room average index in a housing unit has been 4.26 in Meybod, 3.95 in Yazd province and 3.39 in the country. Room index per family has been 4.19 in Meybod and 3.84 and 3.12 in the province and country respectively. Moreover, shortage of housing units has been 1.57 in Meybod, 2.91 in the province and 7.25 in the country.
The family concentration indices in Meybod in the years 1355, 1365, 1375 & 1385 have been. 0.25, 0.21. 0.20 & 0.23 which show an improvement in this respect. These indices has been 0.32, 0.27, 0.21 & 0.26 respectively in the province and 0.39, 0.31, 0.29 & 0.31 in the country.
The qualitative indices for housing include some factors such as the occupation of units which has been 78.33 in Meybod in 1385. During the years 1355-1365 it has changed from 87.7 in 1355 to 90.6 in 1365 and in the two decades between 1365-1385, there has been a decreasing trend and has come to 81.21 in 1385.
The other qualitative index is the percentage of durable housing units which has been 69.54 in Meybod in 1385 and 85.12 for the urban areas of province and 86.81 for the country.
To estimate the number of required house, the population of Meybod has been predicted as 73014, 90538, 112267, and 139211 for the years 1390, 1395, 1400 and 1405 respectively then, using raw rate of housing, the number of houses has been estimated. In 1385, there have been 15456 houses and 15703 families in Meybod. Therefore, the shortage of houses has been 247 units in this year. Taking it into account, 4949 new houses will be needed in 1390 in Meybod and in 1395, Meybod will need 5681 new houses out of which 97 Percent is related to the family development needs and 1.7 Percent is related to the probable destructions.
In 1400, considering the point that 130 houses will be ruined, 7272 houses are required totally. The number of families, assuming 3.3 as the family dimension, has been estimated as 42185. Considering family in housing as 1.001 in this period, 9174 houses will be required for the 9165 added families. The number of destroyed houses is predicted as 165 units considering the annual destruction rate as 0.1 Percent. Therefore, 9310 houses are needed totally.