پیش¬بینی مسکن گروه های کم‎درآمد با تحلیل طرف عرضه و تقاضا (مطالعه‎ی موردی: شهر دامغان)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 کارشناس ارشد مدیریت شهری، دانشگاه تهران

2 کارشناس ارشد شهرسازی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 دانشیار دانشکدهی معماری و شهرسازی، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

چکیده

به عرصه ی برنامه ریزی مسکن، این امر حاصل میشود که این نوع برنامه ریزی با توجه به
محدودیت ها و نیازهای سکونتی، درصدد ارضای احتیاج ها و ارائه ی عملکردی مطلوب در پاسخ
به نیاز اقشار مختلف است. موضوع اساسی در چیستی مورد توجه در این نوشتار، پرداختن به
اهمیت تعریف گروه هدف در این مقوله ی خاص و برنامه ریزی و شناخت دقیق ساختار عرضه و
تقاضای این بازار در گستره ی شهری است و به گفته ای درصدد پاسخ به این دو پرسش است
که چه میزان کمبود در زمان حال و آینده برای پاسخ به تقاضای مسکن گروه های کم درآمد
شهر دامغان وجود دارد؟ و مه مترین وجوه تشکیل دهند هی ساختار عرضه و تقاضای مسکن
چیست و به چه نوع واحد مسکونی در سطح محلّ ههای برنامه ریزی شهر دامغان نیاز داریم؟ در
عرضه ی مسکن برای پاسخ به تقاضا، عوامل متعددی نقش دارند که شناخت این عوامل یکی
از نتایج مورد انتظار این پژوهش است. از ابزارها و روش های مورد توجه در این بخش مدل
موس است و نتایج ارائه شد هی آن، به درستی ساختار تقاضای مسکن گروه های کم درآمد شهر
دامغان را بیان می کند. از راه حل های جلوگیری از بروز مشکل، کنترل این ساختار (عرضه و
تقاضا) و برآورد نیازهای موجود در این بخش و اعمال سازوکارهای مؤثّر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Predicted by Analyzing the Supply and Demand of Housing for Low-income Groups (Case Study: Damghan)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Akbar Neshat 1
  • Majid Niknaei 2
  • Mohammad Hosein Sharifzadegan 3
1 M.A. in Urban Management, Dep. of Urban Management University, Tehran
2 M.A. in Urban and Regional Planning, Shahid Beheshti University
3 Associate Prof., Faculty of Architecture and Urban Planning, SHahid Beheshti University
چکیده [English]

Extended Abstract
Introduction
Housing is defined as a complicated category of human basic needs with a variety of
dimensions. By an exploration about the housing planning this may be revealed that the
planning with residential needs and restrictions seeks to meet the requirements of different
classes and also to present competent performance. What is the main issue addressed in this
paper relates to the specific issues of importance to define the target group in the planning and
detailed knowledge of the structure of supply and demand in the municipal market in order to
answer these two questions: What are the current and future shortage of housing demands in
response to lower income groups in Damghan? What is the most important aspect of forming
the structure of supply and demand and what type of housing units are needed in the planned
community of Damghan? Several factors are involved in the supply of housing in response to
demand. Identification of these factors is as the expected results of this paper and the tools and
methods considered in this section can be pointed out by mouse model. The results presented in
this section can be applicable for the correct housing of low-income groups in Damghan.
Solutions to prevent the problem, the control structure (supply and demand) and the estimated
requirements in this section present effective mechanisms.
Factors affecting housing demand and supply side factors are divided into two parts and
demand factors are more issues related to the housing market. The supply of housing and the 
number of habitable housing units are determined by their owners to be offered for sale or lease.
To meet the demand for housing through various factors is as the essence of housing. Thus,
identifying and analyzing the problem of housing is difficult and there are ways to fix the
problem identified. Analyzing the supply and demand sides of the market that needs
considerable knowledge in planning is to achieve the best results.The needs to be defined based
on the characteristics of the target group should be considered. In this paper various aspects of
this topic will be discussed.
Methodology
Appropriate strategic planning for housing, with emphasis on the strategic planning process has
been benefited from proper information of the structure of supply and demand in the market that
make complex and accurate predictions of the process possible. Based on the study and
application of the models it is very important to consider the structure of supply and demand in
the market to assist the planners. Before this, in the planning of housing the target group as an
issue often overlooked is of importance. The income groups and the social and the economic
characteristics and structure of this special issue are to be scheduled. The structure and
methodology of the study is generally indicated in the diagram and the way the appropriate
method in the study area has been selected is also presented.
Results and Discussion
The purpose of the study is to explore a method by which we can analyze economic, social and
physical planning for low income groups. To achieve the goal we first examined the policies of
housing production for empowering low income people in global scale. The study next has
attempted to recognize suitable techniques and methods to understand the subject for a proper
prediction. Due to the nature of the target group of low-income urban populations, it can be
noted that financing low-income groups in both the demand and supply related policies and
strategies in model construction and equipment of units is reliable as the main focus of this
paper. This result has been obtained that studies considering all factors involved in the
production and supply of housing in neighborhood planning should be conducted in a way that
benefit low-income citizens of Damghan as much as practical.
Conclusion
The most important aspect of forming the housing market (supply and demand) in the local
level planning as the main research question should be noted. The most important factor in the
supply of housing in neighborhood planning in Damghan is in cost per square meter of housing
units. It is sum of the costs of land and construction which include wages, materials and etc. In
addition to the benefits derived from activities in this section. The higher land prices and
construction costs increase and the supply decreases.This charge is due to the high price of land
and construction costs that have an impact on the final price and the quantity demanded.
The price of housing demand has led to the conclusion that Hdanyk. The most important
factors affecting the final price of housing units in terms of location and physical indicators, 
access to the business center of the city, old buildings, structures and access roads are presented
with a width of 8 meters. In this regard, in order to meet the housing demand of low-income
groups, we need to know the exact location of residence and locating new housing units because
of the effective spatial index structure that exists to minimize demand and good quality can be
produced by taking approaches to implementing robust and inexpensive.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Housing Plannin
  • housing supply
  • housing demand
  • Mouse Models