نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی و رئیس دانشگاه پیام نور واحد گالیکش
عنوان مقاله [English]
With a glance at the international system after the collapse of Soviet, one can understand that the US has been able to represent itself as a dominant state in international issues. This was through continuing unilateralism with the help of NATO and occupying some regions under the name of global security and stability. The change of NATO from a security organization to an organization which follows cultural, political, economic, and militarization goals has been very helpful in making the so-called process easy. NATO's programs under the "PFP" in Eurasia were performed with the highest level of accuracy and astuteness. Such issues made Russia think about confronting with the West, US and NATO's program. The intervening process in Afghanistan, Central Asia and the Caucasus, and the issues like energy of Caspian Sea, dangerous convergence over the SCO, and carefully choosing some members of supervisory such as India and Iran indicate a possible confrontation with NATO and the West. It may also be possible to consider this as a continuation of another Cold War. This organization can play an important role in the future of the world energy. Given the Caspian oil and natural gas reserves, Russia and Iran can become the nightmare of the West. With respect to the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that NATO can be faced with in Eurasia, this research tries to reveal the fact that it is possible for the West, NATO, and the US to have serious political, economic, and security conflicts with other regional countries. The base of these conflicts can be focused mainly on the energy security. The researcher tries to address the following questions: Can Caspian and Eurasian countries confront with NATO and the West? To what extent can energy be a challenge for the West in this process? What are the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that NATO is faced with? What strategies can NATO use to make the West's interests stable in Eurasia? What are the confronting strategies for Eurasian countries to confront with NATO?
THE research methodology will be cross-sectional and library based with using the books and articles. Besides, global energy organizations data and statistics will be used. SWOT analytical model will be employed for the qualitative analysis. It expresses strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats, and their related strategies. In fact, the analysis of strengths and weaknesses is in internal environment, and the analysis of opportunities and threats is in external environment of this model (Mafi, Saghayi, 2009: 33)
Results and discussion
The research findings include the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats that NATO and the US are faced with in their domination over Eurasia. It can also reveal that strengths and opportunities have more advantages than the weaknesses and threats. Accordingly, these strategies also show the continued domination over this strategic region. The West has a variety of choices in adopting strategies. It can adopt its defensive and competitive strategies much more peacefully. Instead, although regional countries appear to be a threat for the West, their behavior in the last two decades has been quite defensive and has eventually led to the formation of some security-defensive agencies which have only adopted defensive strategies. The present research shows that the West has been successful in achieving its geopolitical goals and forming its domination in Central Asia and the Caucasus without any conflict and domination over energy reserves and interests, and controlling important rivals.
Despite the appropriate potential strengths in Eurasia for convergence and eventual achievement of the interests, in the years after the collapse of Soviet, the West has been able to gain access to this strategic region where has always been the center of attention for colonial powers, with paying very scarce expenses and with the support from its security and military arm (i.e. NATO). With PFP, NATO has been able to start a relationship with all the former Soviet countries and associate with them under the name of helping. Extensive markets, rich energy reserves, and needs of the countries are the reasons that have encouraged the West for the slow occupation of this region.
However, despite the unique strengths and exquisite opportunities of this region, there are also some threats and weaknesses. The presence of countries like Russia, China, Iran, and Shanghai Cooperation Organization, the extension of China and India's process of industrialization, fighting against the US unilateralism and other factors can cause a challenge for the West. It also awakens the Eurasian countries in order not to give their primary sources and markets to the West very easily. It seems that the West is playing a zero-sum game in this region, the process is the other way around the existing potentials in this area.
In this discussion, with its focus on the analysis of NATO and the West presence in Eurasia and the possibility or impossibility of confrontation for the regional countries, NATO's weaknesses, threats, opportunities, and strengths have been shown using a qualitative descriptive analysis. Now, regional countries are not able to confront with NATO and it is better for them to adopt defensive strategies against the West and NATO to keep the present conditions. However, they can reinforce their strengths and change their defensive strategy to offensive one in the future in order to maintain the balance between the West and Eurasia.
Taking advantage of the West weaknesses, which their basis is on the energy need, can change the existing confrontation into interaction. Although the West and NATO are able to adopt an offensive strategy, they will try to avoid that because they need the market and energy of the region. They have to adopt the same strategy as the regional countries, i.e. defensive-interactive, in order to gain the maximum of interests.