تحلیل شاخص‌های آسیب پذیری در بافت های فرسودۀ شهری با رویکرد مدیریت بحران زلزله (مطالعۀ موردی: محلۀ سیروس تهران)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استادیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکدۀ هنر و معماری، دانشگاه گیلان

2 دانشیار گروه شهرسازی، دانشکدة هنر و معماری، دانشگاه گیلان

3 استاد گروه جغرافیا، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران

چکیده

آسیبپذیری شهر تهران دربرابر زلزله، به ویژه در بافت ها و فضاهای فرسودة بخش مرکزی آن، با عنایت به بستر طبیعی ناامن و با توجه به جایگاه بخش مرکزی این شهر، سنجش میزان
آسیب پذیری بافت های قدیمی بخش مرکزی شهر تهران و ارائۀ راهکارهای کاهش آسیب پذیری آن ها دربرابر زلزله را در اولویت قرار داده است. در این پژوهش، با ارائۀ روشی
برای تحلیل آسیب پذیری لرزه ای بافت های فرسوده، بر نقش مؤثر شاخص های برنامه ریزی شهری در کنار شاخص های سازه ای، در برنامه های مقابله با زلزله تأکید میشود. بدین منظور، به چندین موضوع خرد، شامل شناسایی و انتخاب شاخصهای ارزیابی آسیبپذیری لرزهای، تحلیل میزان تأثیر هریک از شاخصها و تعیین نواحی پرخطر و متراکم مسکونی فرسوده و
امتیازبندی طیف های مختلف آسیب پذیری و تولید نقشۀ ریزپهنه بندی آسیب پذیری محله پرداخته شده است. پژوهش حاضر را می توان از حیث ماهیت و روش، تحلیلی اکتشافی -
دانست. در این نوشتار، ابتدا به مطالعۀ وضعیت آسیب پذیری منطقۀ 12 تهران و سپس به شناخت محلۀ سیروس پرداخته می شود. در مرحلۀ تحلیل، ابتدا مقادیر و داده های همۀ
شاخص ها استخراج می شوند و سپس بهروش تحلیل سلسلهمراتبی ) AHP ( و Expert choice ، شاخص های مربوطه وزن دهی می شوند. سپس با استفاده از نرم افزار GIS ، نقشۀ ریزپهنه بندی آسیب پذیری محله، با منطق FUZZY ارائه می شود. نتایج نشان می دهد وسعت و پوشش جمعیتی نقاط با آسیب پذیری بالا و بسیار بالا بیشتر است و در کل، محدوده با توجه به همۀ عوامل کالبدی مورد تحلیل، دربرابر زلزله بسیار آسیب پذیر است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Analysis of Seismic Vulnerability Factors in Urban Old Texture with the Approach of Earthquake Crisis Management (Case Study: Sirus Neighborhood)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Saber Mohammadpour 1
  • Nader Zali 2
  • Ahmad Pourahmad 3
1 Assistant Professo, Geography and Urban and Regional Planning, Faculty of Art and Architecture, University of Guilan, Guilan, Iran
2 Associate Professor, Urban and Regional Planning Department, Faculty of Art and Architecture, University of Guilan, Iran
3 Professor, Geography Department, Faculty of Geography, University of Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
During the twentieth century, more than 1100 devastating earthquakes occurred in different parts of the world and left more than 1.5 million people dead that 90% was mainly caused by the collapse of the not secure buildings. This research is an analysis - heuristic investigation in methodology and according to nature and inability to control behavior of the variables effective in the problem, this is non-experimental study. An obvious example is Japan that experiences annually several events more than seven in Richter scale. In these events, effects of earthquakes on structures and vulnerable people were very partial and limited. According to the urban infrastructure, these events cannot cause the crisis and disruption in urban systems. This study intends to identify and develop relationships with urban planning and disaster management of earthquake in order to reduce seismic vulnerability of old texture in Sirus Neighborhood of Tehran Municipality, District 12. Through Seismic Vulnerability Analysis of urban old- texture, this situation emphasize on the role of urban planning indicators for the structural parameters of the programs to deal with the earthquakes.
 
Methodology
This research is an analysis - heuristic investigation in the nature of research methodology. According to nature and inability to control behavior of the effective variables, this study has a non-experimental method. Data collection method has been document and literature review in the first case and review of literature on the subject of earthquake damage in urban areas, especially the old-textures.
 
Results and Discussion
With the importance of the seismic vulnerability assessment of the cities in geography and urban planning issues, this study tried to use AHP method. The appropriate predictions of the seismic vulnerability of cities using spatial data, a description of behavioral and structural components used to determine the effect of the vulnerability. Using analytical capabilities of GIS representation and earthquake scenarios in different intensities, we consider micro-zonation damage of buildings and human casualties in the neighborhood of cirrus. In this paper, a hierarchical model is used to evaluate the relative importance of the evaluation factors to determine vulnerability. Then, the relationships and various models of vulnerability and Geographic Information Systems (GIS) are used to assess the seismic vulnerability for Cirrus neighborhood.
To evaluate the vulnerability for this study, the weights of criteria using AHP were calculated for each of the weights using GIS layers of the application. It has prepared the vulnerability map of the overall neighborhood Cyrus.
Since the evaluation criteria measured with different scales are presented, they can be converted into a common scale, in need for standardization. In addition, several methods such as fuzzy theory "scale linear transfer function", "function (value)", and "self-insuring possibilities" can be used to standardize the results of AHP modeling. According to the wide range of fuzzy logic membership functions presented in comparison with other standard methods, this model can be a very strong argument for using a method similar to human descriptions and tentative decisions in use of data for approximation. By using analytical capabilities of GIS representation and earthquake scenarios in different intensities, we consider the micro-zonation damage of buildings and human casualties in the neighborhood of cirrus. In this paper, a hierarchical model is used to evaluate the relative importance of the evaluation factors to determine vulnerability. Fuzzy sets are applied in a variety of functions such as linear threshold function, J-shaped and S-shaped. In this study, according to the nature and criteria, we used layers of linear threshold function.
 
Conclusion
In this study, each of the criteria and sub criteria are examined separately and their individual relationship for the process was clearly explained. Increase in the value of the variables such as population density, age of building, and number of floors is observed. In contrast, increase in the amount of variables such as distance to  the fault surface components, based on the width of the access road, consistent user of the neighborhood, and quality of buildings reduce the vulnerability and vice versa. Each of the above mentioned variables have contributed to the vulnerability, but each has a level of importance compared with other factors. They are individually significant and calculate coefficients using the AHP method and Expert Choice. Review and decision making based on one factor is not always consistent and the importance of each of them is to make better decisions. Therefore, the analysis factors in an acceptable level show vulnerability against earthquake hazards due to all the factors. Finally, we can say that the scope and coverage of the population with high and very high vulnerability (in the central part and the core tissue) was severe. This indicates the high susceptibility of all factors of earthquake.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Crisis Management
  • old- textures
  • physical and urban planning indicators
  • seismic vulnerability indicators
  • Sirus Neighborhood
احدنژاد روشتی، محسن، 1388 ، مدل سازی آسیب پذیری شهرها دربرابر زلزله، مطالعۀ موردی: شهر زنجان، رسالة دکتری
در رشتة جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری، دانشکدة جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران.
.2 احمدی، ملیحه، 1376 ، ارزیابی الگوی قطعه بندی اراضی و بافت شهری در آسیب پذیری مسکن از سوانح طبیعی،
مجموعهمقالات سمینار سیاست های توسعة مسکن در ایران، جلد دوم، تهران.
.3 اکبری، رضا، 1384 ، نقش شهرسازی در مدیریت بحران زلزله با به کارگیری GIS و RS )مطالعۀ موردی: فرحزاد
تهران(، پایان نامة کارشناسی ارشد، شهرسازی بهراهنمایی محمدمهدی عزیزی، دانشکدة هنرهای زیبا، دانشگاه تهران، تهران.
.4 پوراحمد، احمد، حبیبی، کیومرث و ابوالفضل مشکینی، 1386 ، بهسازی و نوسازی بافت های کهن شهری، انتشارات دانشگاه
کردستان، سنندج.
.5 عبدالهی، مجید، 1383 ، مدیریت بحران در نواحی شهری، انتشارات شهرداری ها و دهیاری های کشور، تهران.
.6 عزیزی، محمدمهدی، 1383 ، نقش شهرسازی در کاهش آسیب های زلزله، تجربۀ بم، گزارش نهایی طرح پژوهشی دانشگاه
تهران، تهران.
.7 غفوری آشتیانی، محسن، 1380 ، کاهش خطرپذیری لرزه ای شهر تهران، انتشارات بنیاد مسکن و انقلاب اسلامی، تهران.
.8 مهندسین مشاور باوند، 1385 ، طرح تفصیلی منطقۀ 12 تهران.
.9 ناطق الهی، فریبرز، 1379 ، مدیریت بحران زلزله در ابرشهرها با رویکرد به برنامۀ مدیریت بحران زمین لرزة شهر
تهران، چاپ اول، نشر ناشر: پژوهشگاه بینالمللی زلزلهشناسی و مهندسی زلزله، تهران.
10. Abdollahi, M., 2005, Crisis Management in Urban Areas, Municipalities Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
11. Ahadnejad Roshti, M., 2010, Modeling Urban Vulnerability to Earthquakes: A Case Study of Zanjan, Ph.D Dissertation in Geography and Urban Planning, School of Geography, Tehran University, Tehran. (In Persian)
12. Ahmadi, M., 1996, Role of Urban Planning and Urban Design in Mitigation and Crisis Management, Proceedings of the International Conference, Volume II, Tehran. (In Persian)
13. Akbari, R., 2006, The Role of Urban Planning Earthquake Crisis Management Using GIS and RS: A Case Study FARAHZAD Tehran, M.S Thesis, Supervisor: Azizi, M., Urban School of Fine Arts, Tehran University, Tehran. (In Persian)
14. Azizi, M. M., 2005, The Role of Urban Planning in Reduce of Earthquake Disaster, Bam, Tehran University Research Project Final Report, Tehran. (In Persian)
15. BAVAND Consulting Engineers (Design Detail Area 12), 2007. (In Persian)
16. Botero. V., 2009, Geo-Information for Measuring Vulnerability to Earthquakes, Utrecht University Repository, Netherlands.
17. Ahadnejad Roshti, M., Gharakhlou, M. and Ziyari, K., 2010, Modeling of the Seismic Vulnerability of Building Cities Using AHP in GIS, Geography and Development Journal, No. 19. (In Persian)
18. Clark, G. E., Moser, S. G., Ratick, 1998, Assessing the Vulnerability of Coastal Communities to Extreme Storm: The Case of Revere, MA, USA.
19. Fordham, M., 2000, The Place of Gender in Earthquake Vulnerability and Mitigation, Anglia Polytechnic University.
20. George J. M., 2002, Seismic Parameters Used in Land Use Planning, Scheduling and Implementation of the Relevant Laws and Regulations, Conference, Stanford.
21. Ghafouri Ashtiani, M., 2001, Seismic Risk Reduction in Tehran, Islamic Revolution Housing Foundation Publications, Tehran. (In Persian)
22. Housing Foundation of Islamic Revolution, 1994, The Shape and Size Desired in order to Reduce Vulnerability due to Earthquake Engineering Design can be Mobilized to Deal with the Effects of the Earthquake, Research Director: Seyed Hossein Bahrain, Tehran. (In Persian)
23. Lantada, N., Pujades, L. and Barbat, A., 2008, Vulnerability Index and Capacity Spectrum, Based Method for Urban Seismic Risk, Evaluation Journal of Nathazards, Doi 10-007 11069 007-9212-4.
24. Little, M., Paul, K., Jorderns, C. F. and Sayers, E. J., 2002, Vulnerability in the Narrative of Patients and Their Cares: Studies of Colorectal Cancer, Health, Vol. 4, No. 4, PP. 425-510.
25. Martinelli A. and Cifai G., 2008, Building Vulnerability Assessment and Damage Scenarios in Celano (Italy), Using a Quick Survey Data-Based Methodology, Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, No. 28, PP. 875-889.
26. Milutinovic, Z. V. and Trendafiloski, G. S., 2003, WP4 Report: Vulnerability of Current Buildings. RISK UE Project: An Advanced Approach to Earthquake Risk Scenarios with Applications to Different European Towns, Polytechnic University of Catalonia, Barcelona, Spain.
27. Nategh Elahi, F., 2000, Crisis Management with the Approach to Crisis Management Plan Earthquake in Metropolis of Tehran, 1st Edition, International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology, Tehran. (In Persian)
28. Pourahmad, A., Habibi, K. and Meshkini, A., 2007, Urban Development and Renewal of Old Tissue, Kurdistan University Press, Sanandaj. (In Persian)
29. Smith, K., 1996, Environmental Hazards: Assessing Risk and Reducing Disaster, London, Routledge.
30. Yamazaki Fumio, 2005, Building Damage Mapping of the Ban, Iran, Earthquake Using ENVISAT /ASAR Intensity Imagery, Earthquake Spectra, Vol. 21, No. S1, PP. S285-S294, 12.
31. Yashy, Cuba, 2004, Vulnerability and Retrofitting Buildings in Tehran, Iran-Japan Joint Workshop Proceedings, Publication, No. 298, Management and Planning Organization, Tehran. (In Persian)
32. Zebardast, E., 2001, Application of Analytic Hierarchy Process in Urban and Regional Planning, Art Journal, No. 10. (In Persian)