ارتقای سطح تاب‌آوری کلان‌شهر تهران در برابر سوانح طبیعی با تأکید بر زلزله (مطالعۀ موردی: منطقۀ 12 شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات

2 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهیدبهشتی

3 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی شهری، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی واحد علوم و تحقیقات

چکیده

احتمال رخداد بلایا و سوانح طبیعی به‌عنوان پدیده‌های غیرقابل‌اجتناب همواره سکونتگاه‌های انسانی را تهدید می‌کند؛ از این‌رو وظیفة برنامه‌ریزان و مدیران شهری تنظیم الگوهای مناسب و مدون برای کاهش آسیب‌پذیری سکونتگاه‌های انسانی به‌ویژه شهرهاست که محل تجمع انسان، فعالیت و سرمایه به‌شمار می‌آید. این فرایند تاب‌آوری شهری نام دارد. براین‌اساس، پژوهش حاضر با هدف معرفی و کاربست رویکرد تاب‌آوری شهری در مقابل زمین‌لرزه و برنامه‌ریزی برای دستیابی به ارائة مدل مطلوب صورت گرفته است تا سطح تاب‌آوری کلان‌شهر تهران ارتقا یابد، تأثیرات زمین‌لرزه و آسیب‌پذیری جوامع کمتر شود و توانایی‌های مردم برای مقابله با خطرات ناشی از وقوع سوانح زمین‌لرزه در مناطق شهری تهران تقویت یابد. پژوهش حاضر کاربردی و توصیفی-تحلیلی است که با بهره‌گیری از روش‌های تصمیم‌گیری چندمعیاره در قالب تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی AHP و نرم‌افزار Expert choice انجام شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش با رگرسیون چندمتغیـره نشان می‌دهد ارجح‌ترین بعدی که بر ارتقای سطح تاب‌آوری زلزلة منطقة 12 تهران تأثیرگذار است، بعد اقتصادی تاب‌آوری با ضریب رگرسیون استانداردشدة Beta 382/0 است. ابعاد دیگر برحسب اولویت عبارت‌اند از: بعد نهادی تاب‌آوری، بعد کالبدی-محیطی و بعد اجتماعی تاب‌آوری. همچنین براساس داده‌های کلی تحلیل سلسله‌مراتبی از ابعاد تاب‌آوری منطقة 12 تهران، اولویت ابعاد ارتقای سطح تاب‌آوری زلزله منطقة 12 تهران با اهمیت بالای بعد کالبدی-زیرساختی با ضریب 462/0 همراه است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Enhancing Tehran Resilience against Natural Hazards with Emphasis on Earthquake (Case Study: 12th District of Tehran Municipality)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Farrokh Namjooyan 1
  • Mohammad Taghi Razavian 2
  • Rahim Sarvar 3
1 PhD Student in Geography and Urban Planning, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
2 Professor of Geography and Urban Planning, Shahid Beheshti University Tehran, Iran
3 Professor, Department of Geography and Urban Planning, Science and Research Branch, Islamic Azad University, Tehran, Iran
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Natural phenomena such as the earthquake have always existed and modern humans, despite the remarkable advances in technology, could not prevent them from happening. The earthquake has always been regarded as a threat to human life, and despite the fact that it does not exclude non-urban areas, and these regions suffer a lot of financial and human losses, cities, because of the accumulation of capital and high population density, as well as due to their widespread damage is more than other human settlements. What causes fatalities and injuries is human non-standard construction. Earthquake occurrence is probable and inevitable. What needs to be considered is how we deal with it. Given the earthquake in the country, there is a probability for each of us to be one of the victims of the earthquake in the future. Therefore, the first step is to prevent such damage. Natural hazards have the potential to become a terrible accident in the absence of risk reduction systems. Therefore, reducing the risk of accidents is of paramount importance and it is necessary to establish a suitable place in national policies of each country in order to create favorable conditions for reducing effective and effective risk at different levels. In this regard, the explanation of the relation of resilience to natural disasters (earthquakes) is, in fact, the way social, economic, institutional, political and executive capacities of societies influence the resilience and recognition of the dimensions of resilience in the community. Many governmental and nongovernmental organizations prioritize strengthening the resilience of groups and communities by researching, developing and developing programs, policies and also through educational interventions for disaster management they have payed. It is worth noting that the type of attitude towards the resonance category and its analysis, on the one hand, plays a key role in recognizing the status of the state of affairs and its causes, and on the other hand, it has a major impact on policies and measures to reduce the risk and the way it is confronted with it. What has been studied and analyzed in this research is the analysis of the urban resilience potential of Tehran's 12th district in frpnt of the earthquake. In fact, the purpose of this approach is to reduce the vulnerability of communities and strengthen the people's ability to deal with the risks of the accidents.
Methodology
Data were analyzed by SPSS software (Cronbach's alpha, Pearson correlation, T-test, multivariate regression and data path analysis) and using multi-criteria decision-making methods in the form of AHP hierarchical analysis and Expert selection software, ArcGIS and ArcMap software have been used to draw maps.
Results and discussion
The findings of this study indicate that, based on the findings of the theoretical framework, urban resiliency has dimensions. To investigate the resilience of district 12 with approach and attention to earthquake as one of the most important natural disasters in this study, four dimensions including socio-cultural, economic, institutional and physical-environmental aspects have been used in the analysis. Each of these dimensions is with various indicators are defined. In order to analyze the region and the statistical population, preparing different layers in each dimension in the area and drawing maps of vulnerability, vulnerability and resilience of the area, a questionnaire analysis and various tests have been carried out. Thus, the quality of the indicators of the dimensions of social resilience in the region is low and weak. However, at the district level of the region, this process has different conditions, in the analysis of all options and indicators of resilience in the neighborhoods of Iran and Ferdowsi have the best situation, and the Harandi and Sangalaj neighborhoods have the worst situation in earthquake resilience. This is more weak in economic analysis of the economic situation in the region, so that in the economic dimension of the defined terms, nearly half of them have a coefficient of less than 2 (average level 3), which indicates that there is no weakness In this context. However, the situation is not uniform in the future, so that the Mokhtari-Takhty and Baharestan settlements are the best, and the Harandi and Arg-Pamjaran neighborhoods are in the worst condition for earthquake resilience.
Conclusion
An analysis of the pattern of institutional dimensional layers at the district level 12 as well as the views of citizens and experts indicates weaknesses in the infrastructure of the region, including the capacity of existing organizations in the region to provide services during times of crisis such as earthquakes and increasing vulnerability. This area is in a disaster like earthquake. As with other dimensions, this is true in the institutional aspect, the weaknesses presented and the existing strengths are not uniformly distributed across the region. The later physical-environment that refers more to the physical infrastructure in the city and the region, has a relatively different pattern than the other dimensions, so that conditions such as satisfaction with the pattern of power lines in the area, the degree of satisfaction with The region's gradient pattern (so that it can manage urban sewage without any disturbances leading to the accumulation of surface water) is in conditions above the average. However, it can be noted that the level of proportionality or inappropriateness of the infrastructure and the intended use in this dimension is not consistent at the level of neighborhoods of the region, and the locations of Mokhtari-Takhty and Harandi have the best situation, and the market places and Baharestan's worst situation in terms of Earthquake resilience.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • city
  • Urban Resiliency
  • Natural disasters
  • earthquake
  • urban sustainability
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