امکان‌سنجی بهره‌گیری از استراتژی‌های سازگاری و کاهش‌اثر در مقابله با جزایرگرمایی شهری (مطالعۀ موردی: کلان شهر تهران)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 پژوهشگر دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه ‏ریزی شهری، دانشگاه تربیت مدرس

2 کارشناس ‏ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه ‏ریزی شهری، دانشگاه شهید بهشتی

3 کارشناس ‏ارشد جغرافیا و برنامه‏ ریزی شهری، دانشگاه پیام ‏نور اردکان یزد

چکیده

امروزه،شهرها با ساخت‏وسازهای به‏هم‏فشرده و وجود انواع فعالیت‏ها به‏ویژه در بخش مرکزی کاملاً بر اقلیم خود و پیرامون اثر گذاشته‏اند و به افزایش حرارت شهری و ایجاد جزایر گرمایی منجر شده‏اند که دارای آثار سوء بر زیست شهری است. در مقابله با مضرات جزایر گرمایی شهری، استراتژی‏های کاهش اثر و سازگاری توسط مطالعات پیشنهاد شده است. امکان اجرای هر یک از این استراتژی‏ها در شهرهای مختلف جهان، باتوجه‏به امکانات و ظرفیت‏های موجود آن‏ها، متفاوت است که مطالعة امکان‏سنجی مسیر مشخصی را برای مدیریت شهری برای مقابله با جزایر گرمایی مشخص می‏کند. هدف از این پژوهش امکان‏سنجی اجرای استراتژی‏های کاهش اثر و سازگاری در کلان‏شهر تهران است. روش تحقیق در این مقاله توصیفی-تحلیلی و از لحاظ ماهیت کاربردی است و جامعۀ آماری این تحقیق متخصصان شهری بوده‏ و روش جمع‏آوری داده‏ها پرسش‏نامه است. روش تجزیه و تحلیل داده‏ها روش منطق فازی‏- کلامی است. نتایج تحقیق نشان می‏دهد که استراتژی‏های کاهش اثر (شامل تغییر رنگ پشت‏بام‏ها و جداره‏های شهری به رنگ‏هایی با انعکاس بیشتر و ...) و استراتژی‏های سازگاری (شامل آموزش شهروندان با هدف وفق با دماهای بیشتر، ترویج و آموزش شهروندان در زمینةصرفه‏جویی در مصرف برق و گاز،و بهره‏گیری از روش‏های جلب مشارکت شهروندان) بیشترین امکان اجرا در کلان‏شهر تهران را داراست. به‏صورت کلی،استراتژی‏های کاهش اثر امکان بیشتری برای اجرا در شهر تهران را داراست. نیاز به تغییر رویکرد از استراتژی‏های کاهش اثر به سوی استراتژی‏های سازگاری در سیاست‏های کلان مقابله با جزایر گرمایی احساس می‏‏شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Feasibility study on the implementation of adaptation and mitigation strategies in coping with urban heat islands (case study: Tehran metropolis)

نویسندگان [English]

  • Kazem Borhani 1
  • Sadralah Goodarzi 2
  • Shiva Esmaeili 3
1 Tarbiat modares university
2 Shahid beheshti univerrsity
3 geography And urban planning
چکیده [English]

Introduction
Climate change is one of the brightest examples of human activity. With changes in their environment, humans create conditions that can change the climate and temperature of the air. The clearest indication of human impact on the climate can be seen in cities. Urban development can change in the local and regional climate. The most important impacts of climate change in cities include the urban heat islands. It is well known that urban advancement and development causes climate change, including the creation of a city heat island in metropolitan areas. In fact, urban heat islands are separate units whose temperatures have increased throughout the urban areas and the warmth of which has increased in recent centuries. Despite the heat island, the number of warm days per year also increases. The urban heat island was first introduced in 1819 by Lockheavard in London. Subsequently, this phenomenon was recognized in small and large cities around the world. There are several reasons for the heat island. The main reason for the increase in night heat in buildings in flat, overnight and evapotranspiration nights in urban areas is generally due to asphalt and cement used in urban areas. Modern urban areas usually have dark and no-cost areas over the suburbs. This difference affects the climate, energy consumption and urban habitability. In sum, the dark levels and the lack of vegetation will warm the air of urban areas, which will result in the creation of urban thermal islands. In a summer afternoon (in the air), the weather in a city is about 2.5 degrees Celsius warmer than the surrounding rural areas.
The city of Tehran has faced the problem of the thermal islands in the last few decades, due to the concentration of population and economic activity in it. From 1303 to last year, the minimum temperature in Tehran was negative by 15 degrees, which has now reached a negative 5 degrees due to climate change, which means a rise in Tehran's temperature, which has led to a decrease in precipitation and a temperature increase of 2 to 3 degrees. . According to meteorological statistics during these years, the minimum temperature of Tehran and maximum temperature in Tehran have increased and precipitation has decreased by at least 10%. These are the result of climate change due to the excessive use of fossil fuels. In Tehran, about 100 million liters of fossil fuels consumed at a time when most of these fuels become carbon and pollutant gases. Hafteir Square, Enghelab Square, Shoosh Square, Azadi Square and Ghaytrieh Areas are the thermal islets of Tehran. Considering the presence of thermal islands in Tehran and the negative effects on urban society, it appears that using adaptation strategies and reducing the impact of urban planning and management in order to increase the resilience of urban communities seems to be appropriate. The purpose of this paper is to explore the effects of adaptation strategies on urban heat and waste in Tehran. To do this, we first understand these strategies and then, using the viewpoint of experts and managers, the feasibility of their implementation in the city of Tehran has been addressed.
Methodology
This research has been conducted on the basis of an analytical descriptive method and its type has been essentially applied. In the first part of the descriptive study, theoretical foundations and scientific literature have been studied and in the analytical section using the fuzzy verbal technique (FMCDM), the feasibility of using strategies Adaptation and reduction of impact against urban islets. In order to implement this technique, a questionnaire designed by experts is being developed. Many experts often cannot use precise numerical values to express their opinions. Therefore, the use of verbal assessments seems to be more realistic. Grades can be transmitted through verbal data such as (very much, much, etc.). ) To fit the theory of fuzzy sets seems to be more appropriate. Therefore, the problem under consideration is a fuzzy multi-criteria decision making (FMCDM) problem. The statistical population of the research is urban planners, designers and managers, a method for determining the sample size of a snowball model.
Results and discussion
In order to rank the reduction strategies in terms of the possibility of implementation, the results of the questionnaires were analyzed and the results were obtained based on verbal fuzzy method and digitalization of the numbers. According to the results of the analysis of the questionnaire by fuzzy method, the strategies for changing the colors of the roofs and changing the colors of the urban walls into more reflective colors can be implemented more than other strategies. The strategy of using modern technologies in the architecture of buildings with the least possible use of cooling systems and the use of green roofing technology for residents in the region also have the least possibility of implementation.
Adaptation strategies have been less feasible due to their long duration and the need for more planning and budget than some of the strategies to reduce the impact. Civic education strategies aimed at adapting to more temperatures, promoting and educating citizens in the field of saving energy and gas, using methods of attracting participation of citizens in this problem from the possibility of implementation more than other strategies They have adaptation.
Conclusion
According to experts, it can be acknowledged that whatever strategy has been considered to be easier to implement, it has gained more privilege in implementing ranking, while strategies that implement stringent conditions And the need for planning and budget has been remarkable, it has got lower ratings in terms of implementation. In general, it can be concluded that the effect reduction strategies are more likely to be implemented in Tehran. Of course, among the reduction strategies, there are some issues that due to the high cost and the need for specialized work and the appropriate field of study, some of the adaptation strategies are in the possibility of implementation in the lower ranks.
Keyword: Feasibility Study, Heat Islands, Adaptation, Mitigation, Tehran Metropolis

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Feasibility study
  • Heat Islands
  • adaptation
  • Mitigation
  • Tehran Metropolis
  1. آذر، عادل و احسانی، علی (1389). سنجش عوامل کلیدی موفقیت اجرای مدیریت دانش در سازمان با رویکرد تصمیم‏گیری چندشاخصة فازی (مورد مطالعه: مرکز آمار ایران)، سومین کنفرانس ملی مدیرت دانش، بهمن 1389.
  2. حسن لی، علی‏مراد و شفیعی، مسعود (۱۳۸۹). راهبردهای سازگاری با خشکسالی‏ها، مرکز تحقیقات استراتژیک، گروه پژوهشی امور زیربنایی، تهران.
  3. دهقان، مهدی (1382). جزایر گرمایی شهری نمونه‏ای از تغییر اقلیم، مجلة رشد آموزش جغرافیا، 65: 28-35.
  4. رنجبر سعادت‏آبادی، عباس؛ علی‏اکبری بیددختی، عباس‏علی و صادقی حسینی، علی‏رضا (1384). آثار جزیرة گرمایی و شهرنشینی روی وضع هوا و اقلیم محلی در کلان‏شهر تهران براساس داده‏های مهرآباد و ورامین، محیطشناسی، 39: 59-68.
  5. رنجبر، هادی؛ حق‏دوست، علی‏اکبر؛ صلصالی، مهوش؛ خوشدل، علی‏رضا؛ سلیمانی، علی و بهرامی، نسیم (1391). نمونه‏گیری در پژوهش‏های کیفی: راهنمایی برای شروع، مجلة علمی‏- پژوهشی دانشگاه علوم پزشکی ارتش جمهوری اسلامی ایران، 3: 238-250.
  6. صادقی‏نیا، علی‏رضا؛ علیجانی، بهلول و ضیائیان، پرویز (1391). تحلیل فضایی- زمانی جزیرة حرارتی کلان‏شهر تهران با استفاده از سنجش از دور و سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی، جغرافیاومخاطراتمحیطی، ۴: 1-17.
  7. مفیدی، مجید و زارع مهذبیه، آیدا (1392). معرفی مصالح سطوح پیاده‏رو شهری به‏منظور کاهش اثر جزایر گرمایی، فصل‏نامة طراح، 8: 118-122.
    1. Azar, A & Ehsani, A. (2010). Assessing the key factors of success in implementing knowledge management in the organization with a decision-making approach of several fuzzy indicators (Case study: Iran Statistics Center). Third National Conference on Knowledge Management.
    2. Mofidi, M & Zare, A. (2013). Introducing the materials of urban sidewalk surfaces in order to reduce the effect of heat islands. Designer's Quarterly, No. (8),: pp: 118-122
10. Sadeghinia, A. Alijani, B & Ziaeian, P. (2012). Spatial-temporal analysis of Tehran metropolitan island using remote sensing and geographic information system, Journal of the Geography and environmental hazards Volum 4: Winter. Pp. 1-17.

11. Ranjbar, H, Haghdoost, A. Salsali, M. Khoshdel, A. Soleimani, A & Bahrami, N. (2012). Sampling in Qualitative Research: Supervision For starters, Journal of the Army of the Islamic Republic of Iran University of Medical Sciences, No. (3 :), pp: 238-250.

12. Ranjbar Saadatabadi, A. Ali Akbari Bidokhti, A & Sadeghi Hosseini, A. (2005). The effects of the island of heat and urbanization on the weather and local climate in the metropolis of Tehran based on data Mehrabad and Varamin, Environmental Studies, No. 39,: Summer 84, pp. 59-68.

13. Dehghan, Mehdi (, 2003). Urban Heat Islands, an example of climate change, Journal: Growth of Geography Education, Summer 2003 - No. 65: pp: 28-35.

14. Hassan Lee, A & Shafiee, M. (2010). Drought Adaptation Strategies, Strategic Research Center, Infrastructure Research Group, Tehran.

15. Adger, W.N.; Eakin, H. and Winkels, A. (2007). Nested and networked vulnerabilities in South East Asia. Global Environmental Change and the South-east Asian Region: An Assessment of the State of the Science, L. Lebel, et al. (eds.), Island Press, Washington, District of Columbia, in press.

16. Akbari, H.; Levinson, R. and Rainer, L. (2005). Monitoring the energy-use effects of cool roofs on California commercial buildings, Energy and Buildings, 37: 1007-1016.

17. Alcoforado, M.J. and Andrade, H. (2006). Nocturnal urban heat island in Lisbon (Portugal): main features and modelling attempts, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 84: 151-159.

18. Archer, D.; Almansi, F.; DiGregorio, M.; Roberts, D.; Sharma, D. and Syam, D. (2014). Moving towards inclusive urban adaptation: approaches to integrating community-based adaptation to climate change at city and national scale, Climate and Development, 6(4): 345-356.

19. Ca, V.T.; Asaeda, T. and Ashie, Y. (1999). Development of a numerical model for the evaluation of the urban thermal environment, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 81: 181-196.

20. Carmin, J.; Roberts, D. and Anguelovski, I. (2009). Planning climate resilient cities: early lessons from early adapters, Presented at the world bank urban research symposium on climate change, Marseille, 28-30 June 2009.

21. Carter, J.; Cavan, G. Connelly, A.; Guy, S.; Handley, J. and Kazmierczak, A. (2015). Climate change and the city: Building capacity for urban adaptation, Progress in Planning, 95: 1-66.

22. Chang, K., 2000: Scientists watch cities make their own weather.New York Times,15 August, Late Ed.—Final, F1. [Availableonlineathttp://query.nytimes.com/search/abstract?res5F60C12F63B5B0C768DDDA10894D8404482.

23. Chang, S. E., & Falit-Baiamonte, A. (2002). Disaster vulnerability of businesses in the 2001 Nisqually earthquake. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 4(2), 59-71.Cook, J.; Fang, K.; Smith, J. and Williams, K. (2010). Urban Heat Islands in the San Joaquin Valley: Case study evaluating the magnitude and mitigation strategies of Fresno’s heat island, 2010, LBNL Heat Island Group, http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/CoolRoofs/, pg1.

24. Clarke JF (1972) Some effects of the urban structure on heat mortality.Environ Res 5:93–104

25. Corfee-Morlot, J., Cochran, I., Hallegatte, S., & Teasdale, P. J. (2011). Multilevel risk governance and urban adaptation policy. Climatic change, 104(1), 169-197.Fujino, T.; Asaeda, T. and Ca, V.T. (1999). Numerical analyses of urban thermal environment in a basin climate - application of a k-epsilon model to complex terrain, Journal of Wind Engineering and Industrial Aerodynamics, 81: 159-169.

26. Giguère, M. (2009). Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies, Urban Heat Island Mitigation Strategies Institute national de santé publication of Québec, http://www.inspq.qc.ca.

27. Gorsevski, V., Taha, H., Quattrochi, D., & Luvall, J. (1998). Air pollution prevention through urban heat island mitigation: An update on the Urban Heat Island Pilot Project. Proceedings of the ACEEE Summer Study, Asilomar, CA, 9, 23-32.

28. Golden, J. S. (2006). Photovoltaic canopies: thermodynamics to achieve a sustainable systems approach to mitigate the urban heat island hysteresis lag effect. International journal of sustainable energy, 25(01), 1-21.

29. Greater London Authority (2008). The London Climate Change Adaptation Strategy,Summary draft report, Published by Greater London Authority, London.

30. Grothmanna, T. and Patt, A. (2005). Adaptive capacity and human cognition: The process of individual adaptation to climate change, Global Environmental Change, 15: 199-213.

31. Healthy air living (2011). Urban Heat Island Mitigation: An innovative way to reduce air pollution and energy usage, www.healthyairliving.com.

32. Heidt, V.M. and Neef, M. (2008). Benefits of Urban Space for Im- proving Urban Climate, Ecology, Planning and Management of Urban Forests: International Perspective, 2008.

33. Heisler, G.M. and Grant, R.H. (2000). Ultraviolet radiation in urban ecosystems with consideration of effects on human health, Urban Ecosystems, 4: 193-229.

34. Hoverter, Sara P. (2012). Adapting to Urban Heat: A Tool Kit for Local Governments, Georgetown Climate Center.

35. Kikegawa, Y., Genchi, Y., Kondo, H., & Hanaki, K. (2006). Impacts of city-block-scale countermeasures against urban heat-island phenomena upon a building’s energy-consumption for air-conditioning. Applied Energy, 83(6), 649-668.

36. Kolokotroni, M., Giannitsaris, I., & Watkins, R. (2006). The effect of the London urban heat island on building summer cooling demand and night ventilation strategies. Solar Energy, 80(4), 383-392.

37. LBNL Heat Island Group (2010). http://eetd.lbl.gov/HeatIsland/CoolRoofs/, pp. 1.

38. Lesnikowski, A. (2014). Adaptation to Urban Heat Island Effect in Vancouver, BC: A case study in analyzing vulnerability and adaptation opportunities, A project submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of  master of arts (planning), the University of British Columbia, September 2014.

39. Manlun, Y. (2003). Suitability Analysis of Urban Green Space System Based on GIS; ITC: Geneva, Switzerland, 03.

40. Masson, V. (2006). Urban surface modeling and the meso-scale impact of cities, Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 84: 35-45.

41. McKendry, I.G. (2003). Applied climatology, Progress in Physical Geography, 27: 597-606.

42. Narejo, D. (2005). (Geo)Synthetics for greenroofs, Geotechnical Fabrics Report, 23: 34-37.

43. Nowak, D. (2000). The interactions between urban forests and global climate change, Global Climate Change and the Urban Forest, 31-44.

44. O’Malley, C., Piroozfar, P., Farr, E. R., & Pomponi, F. (2015). Urban Heat Island (UHI) mitigating strategies: A case-based comparative analysis. Sustainable Cities and Society, 19, 222-235.Oke, T.R. (1982). The energetic basis of the urban heat island, Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 108: 1-24.

45. Oke, T. R., 1973: City size and the urban heat island.Atmos. Environ.,7,769–779.

46. Randall, T. A., Churchill, C. J., & Baetz, B. W. (2003). A GIS-based decision support system for neighbourhood greening. Environment and Planning B: Planning and Design, 30(4), 541-563.

47. Roaf, S.; Crichton, D. and Nicol, F. (2005). Adapting buildings and cities for climate change: a 21st century survival guide, Amsterdam, The Netherlands: Elsevier/Architectural Press.

48. Rosenfeld, A.; Akbari, H.; Bretz, S.; Fishman, B.; Kurn, D.; Sailor, D. and Taha, H. (1995). Mitigation of urban heat islands: materials, utility programs, updates, Energy and Buildings, 22: 255-265.

49. Rushayati, S.; Prasetyo, L.; Puspaningsih, N. and Rachmawati, E. (2016). Adaptation Strategy Toward Urban Heat Island at Tropical Urban Area, Procedia Environmental Sciences, 33: 221-229.

50. Saavedra, C., Budd, W. W., & Lovrich, N. P. (2012). Assessing resilience to climate change in US cities. Urban Studies Research, 2012..

51. Shashua-Bar, L., Hoffman, M. E., & Tzamir, Y. (2006). Integrated thermal effects of generic built forms and vegetation on the UCL microclimate. Building and environment, 41(3), 343-354.

52. Satterthwaite, D.; Huq, S.; Reid, H.; Pellin, M. and Romero Lankao, P. (2009). Introduction. In: Bicknell J, Dodman D, Satterthwaite D (eds.) Adapting cities to climate change: understanding and addressing the development challenges, London: Earthscan.

53. Shahgedanova, M.; Burt, T.P. and Davies, T.D. (1997). Some aspects of the three-dimensional heat island in Moscow, International Journal of Climatology, 17: 1451-1465.

54. Smit, B. and Pilifosova, O. (2001). Adaptation to climate change in the context of sustainable development and equity, In: McCarthy, J.J., Canziani, O.F., Leary, N.A., Dokken, D.J., White, K.S. (eds.), Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Cambridge: Cambridge University Pres, pp. 877-912.

55. Solecki, W. D., Rosenzweig, C., Parshall, L., Pope, G., Clark, M., Cox, J., & Wiencke, M. (2005). Mitigation of the heat island effect in urban New Jersey. Global Environmental Change Part B: Environmental Hazards, 6(1), 39-49Stone, Jr., Brian Vargo, Jason, Peng Liu, Yongtao Hu, Armistead Russell, (2013). Climate Change Adaptation Through Urban Heat Management in Atlanta, Georgia Environ. Sci. Technol, 47: 7780-7786.

56. Tsunemats, N.; Yokoyama, H. and Honjo, T. (2015). Impacts of urban heat island mitigation strategies on surface temperatures in downtown Tokyo, 9th International Conference on Urban Climate jointly with 12th Symposium on the Urban Environment, Toulouse France.

57. UN-HABITAT (2011). Cities and Climate Change, Global Report on Human Settlements 2011, http://www.unhabitat.org/downloads/docs/GRHS2011_Full.pdf.

58. Villanueva-Solis, J. (2017). Urban Heat Island Mitigation and Urban Planning: The Case of the Mexicali, B. C. Mexico, American Journal of Climate Change, 6: 22-39.

59. Wang, Y.; Berardi, U. and Akbari, H. (2016). Comparing the effects of urban heat island mitigation strategies for Toronto, Canada, Energy and Buildings, 114: 2-19.

60. Weng, Q.; Lu, D. and Schubring, J. (2004). Estimation of land surface temperature vegetation abundance relationship for urban heat island studies, Remote Sensing of Environment, 89: 467-483.

61. Wilby, R.L. and Perry, G.L.W. (2006). Climate change, biodiversity and the urban environment: a critical review based on London, UK., Progress in Physical Geography, 30: 73-98.

62. Yang, L.; Qian, F.; Song, D. and Zheng, K. (2016). Research on Urban Heat-Island Effect, Procedia Engineering, 169: 11-18.

63. Yow, D.M. (2007). Urban Heat Islands: Observations, Impacts, and Adaptation, Geography Compass 1(6): 1227-1251.

64. Yu, C. and Hien, W.N. (2006). Thermal benefits of city parks, Energy and Buildings, 38: 105-120.