بررسی عوامل موثر بر تخلیه اضطراری در برابر خطر سیل در روستاهای کوهستانی(موردمطالعه: شهرستان پلدختر)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار جغرافیا و برنامه‌ریزی روستایی دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران

2 دانشجوی دکترای آب و هواشناسی شهری، دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران

3 دانشجوی دکترای جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی روستایی دانشگاه سیستان و بلوچستان

چکیده

بررسی عوامل موثر بر تخلیه اضطراری در برابر خطر سیل در روستاهای کوهستانی(موردمطالعه: شهرستان پلدختر)
چکیده
برای کاهش اثرات مخاطرات طبیعی و به ویژه مخاطره سیل، قابلیت تخلیه سریع و با سرعت بالا قبل یا در طی وقوع سیل برای ایمنی عمومی خانوارهای روستایی بسیار مهم است. لذا در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی عوامل موثر بر قابلیت تخلیه اضطراری روستاهای کوهستانی در مقابل خطر سیل پرداخته شد. تحقیق حاضر ازنظر هدف، کاربردی و روش انجام آن توصیفی- تحلیلی است. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها و اطلاعات پرسش‌نامه و مصاحبه با مردم محلی می‌باشد. جامعه آماری شامل خانوارهای روستایی در معرض سیل در شهرستان پل‌دختر می‌باشد (5392N=). با استفاده از فرمول کوکران و به روش نمونه‌گیری سهمیه‌ای360 خانوار به عنوان نمونه انتخاب شد. انتخاب 60 روستاهای مورد مطالعه نیز به صورت هدفمند بوده است. برای تجزیه‌وتحلیل داده‌ها و رسیدن به پرسش‌های تحقیق، از آزمون‌های t تک‌نمونه‌ای، کای‌اسکوئر و مدل لجستیک باینری استفاده شد. نتایج نشان داد که از بین 35 متغیر مورد نظر تحقیق، 14 متغیر به طور قابل توجهی ارتباط معنی‌داری با قابلیت تخلیه اضطراری در زمان وقوع سیل در بین خانوارهای روستایی در شهرستان پلدختر داشته است. عوامل شخصی (344/0)، زیربنایی (300/0) و ساختاری- نهادی (238/0) مهم‌ترین عوامل در این زمینه بوده‌اند. براساس نتایج، پیشنهاداتی برای بهبود قابلیت تخلیه اضطراری برای خانوارهای روستایی در معرض وقوع خطر سیل ارائه شد. از نتایج این مطالعه می‌توان برای بهبود قابلیت تخلیه اضطراری خانوارهای روستایی و کاهش خطرات ناشی از سیل استفاده نمود.
کلید واژه‌ها: تخلیه اضطراری، سیل، آمادگی در برابر مخاطرات، مدل لجستیک، شهرستان پلدختر.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Factors Affecting Emergency evacuation against the risk of floods in mountainous Rural (Case Study: Poledokhtar township)

نویسندگان [English]

  • vahid Riahi 1
  • Meysam toulabi nejad 2
  • mehrshad toulabi nejad 3
1 Associate Professor of Geography and Rural Planning, Kharazmi University, Tehran
2 Ph.D. student Climatology Kharazmi University of Tehran
چکیده [English]

Investigating the Factors Affecting Emergency evacuation against the risk of floods in mountainous Rural (Case Study: Poledokhtar township)

Introduction
Increasing these costs and damages to natural hazards, and in particular floods, has caused more attention from countries to find solutions to reduce the risk of flooding, so that engineering measures (such as the creation of dams, gates, construction of congestion) and non-mechanical measures (such as the area Flood mapping, flood mapping and flood insurance programs). Engineering measures to deal with the disaster before the 1960s and non-military measures gradually attracted the attention of the researchers since the 1960s. Examples include non-mechanical measures in various countries, such as the National Flood Insurance Program, the Flood Management Program in the United States; Flood alert system, flood hazard mapping and flood hazard inventory in Britain and India; The establishment of a forecasting and training system for the prevention of accidents in Japan, and the provision of flood risk maps or drainage routes in China. One of the crucial issues for public safety is how to safely and quickly evacuate flood areas in the past or during floods. Therefore, recognizing communities and their speed of action against flood risk, emergency evacuation during floods and providing a suitable strategy to reduce their effects should be considered. Identifying these factors can reduce the effects of this risk, and it is necessary to provide solutions in order to improve them. Therefore, the main research question is: What are the most important factors affecting the emergency discharge capability against the flood risk in mountain villages.
Methodology
This study in terms of purpose applied and method of doing it is descriptive-analytical. Data collection was done in both documentary and field studies. Statistical Society includes rural households exposed to flood in Poledokhtar Township (N= 5392). Using the Cochran formula and the method sampling quotas 360 families were selected as samples. Selection the 60 villages studied were also targeted. A tool for collecting data and information is a questionnaire and interviews with local people. To answer research questions and analyze data Statistical methods (descriptive and inferential) was used. Statistical methods were performed in Eviews software version 9 and SPSS version 22. To analyze the inferential statistics, one-sample t-test, chi-square, and binary logistic model were used. Based on existing literature and interactive discussions with 35 local households and 20 experts in various fields of study (geography, hydrology, sociology and risk management), Five factors and 35 variables that affect the discharge rate of rural households in the face of flood risk. The validity of the questionnaire was measured and verified using content validity, which is determined by those who specialize in the subject matter.
Results and discussion
Investigating the findings using logistic regression model, the results showed that among the 35 variables in the research, 14 variables have a significant relationship with emergency evacuation of rural households at the time of flood events. The significance level of 0.001 indicates that variables such as age, gender, level of education, previous awareness, mental health, people with special needs, personal care, ownership, government assistance, early warning, information, shelter, road and rail And discharge routes have had a positive and significant effect on the emergency evacuation rate of rural households at the time of flood events. Variables have been more or less effective in this regard, but these 14 variables have the most effect on the rate of discharge of rural households in Poledokhtar Township. Some variables whose level of significance was lower than the covered levels (0.001 and 0.005) did not have much effect on this. In addition, the model findings on the key factors affecting the ability to evacuate against flood show that among the five factors considered, three factors have a significant relation with the discharge rate at the time of the flood event. The significance level of 0.001 indicates that personal factors (0.344), infrastructure (0.300) and institutional-structural (0.238) have the most effects on the discharge rate (dependent variable) of rural households in Poledokhtar Township they are. Among these five factors, the personal factor has the most impact and social impact on the subject. Therefore, the research question was based on identifying the factors affecting the emergency discharge capacity of rural households at the time of flood events.
Conclusion
Natural hazards are not considered natural disasters in the first stage, but also there are dangers that are repeated in nature. The most important natural hazards include earthquakes, floods, storms, droughts, landslides, and volcanoes. Different countries have different management practices to deal with a variety of hazards. Iran also experiences a variety of hazards by being in a special geographic location. In the Lorestan region and especially in Poledokhtar, due to the mountainous nature of the area, high rainfall, the flow of two important rivers of Kashkan and Seymareh are at risk of flood. In addition, the lack of proper planning for settlement of urban and rural areas is another crisis in the region; Most of them are located on the ground because of the limited geographic and mountainous nature of the area. Therefore, in order to minimize flood damage, immediate discharge is essential before and during the flood for general safety. Considering the importance of this issue, this study was conducted to investigate the factors affecting emergency evacuation against flood risk in mountain villages of Poeledokhtar Township. The results showed that the variables such as age, gender, level of education, previous knowledge, mental health, people with special needs, personal care, ownership, government assistance, early warning, information, shelter, road and rail, and evacuation routes are more related to Rapid evacuation of rural households at flood events. The overall results of the findings also show that the three personal, institutional and institutional factors have the most effects in this field.
Keywords: Emergency evacuation, Flood, Preparedness against hazards, Logistic model, Poledokhtar Township

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Emergency evacuation
  • Flood
  • Preparedness against hazards
  • Logistic model
  • Poledokhtar Township

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 30 آبان 1397
  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 بهمن 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 آبان 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 آبان 1397