تبیین مراحل و عوامل‌ زمینه‌ساز بحران ژئوپلیتیکی کردستان عراق بر مبنای مدل مایکل برچر

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشگاه خاتم الانبیاء ارتش جمهوری اسلامی ایران

2 دکتری تخصصی مدیریت استراتژیک، استادیار دانشگاه فرماندهی و ستاد ارتش

چکیده

بحران ژئوپلیتیکی کردستان عراق با اعلام همه‌پرسی استقلال در سوم مهر ماه 1396 شکل گرفته است. مدل ژئوپلیتیکی مایکل برچر درباره مراحل و عوامل زمینه‌ساز بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی می‌باشد و در این مقاله مراحل و عوامل زمینه‌ساز شکل‌گیری بحران کردستان عراق بر اساس مدل یاد شده مورد بررسی و واکاوی قرار گرفته است. بنابر این هدف این مقاله شناخت و تبیین مراحل و عوامل شکل‌گیری بحران کردستان عراق بر اساس مدل مایکل برچر است. فرضیه تحقیق این است که مراحل بحران عبارتند از: پیدایش، گسترش، کاهش و تأثیرات بحران و عوامل زمینه‌سازی بحران عبارتند از: جغرافیا، وضعیت منازعه، عمر بازیگر بحران، نظام سیاسی، سطح نظام بین‌الملل، قطب بندی و مداخله قدرت‌های منطقه‌ای و فرامنطقه‌ای.
پژوهش از نوع نظری است که با استفاده از روش توصیفی انجام شده است. ابزار گردآوری داده‌ها اسناد و مدارک است و داده‌های گرد‌آوری شده به روش تحلیل محتوا مورد تجزیه و تحلیل قرار گرفته‌اند. نتایج پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که مراحل شکل‌گیری بحران کردستان عراق عبارتند از: سقوط صدام و شکل‌گیری حکومت فدرال در کردستان، حمله داعش به سوریه و عراق و تقویت ناسیونالیسم کردی و استقلال‌طلبی، تسلط پیشمرگه‌ها بر مناطقی از کرکوک، نینوا و دیالی، حمله ارتش عراق و نیروهای حشدالشعبی به کرکوک و عقب نشینی نیروهای پیشمرگه از کرکوک و عوامل زمینه‌ساز بحران عبارتند از: برجستگی جغرافیایی – راهبردی منطقه کردستان بویژه منطقه کرکوک، تقارن منافع ایران و ترکیه در سطح بالا و مخالفت بسیار شدید و همراه با تهدید این دو کشور با همه‌پرسی و عدم همراهی ایالات متحده واتحادیه اروپا با همه‌پرسی است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Explaining the steps and factors behind the Iraqi Kurdistan geopolitical crisis based on Michael Brecker’s model

نویسندگان [English]

  • Mohsen Biuck 1
  • Mohammad AkramiNia 2
1 Khatam al-Anbia Air Defense University
2 Faculty member of AJA university of command and staff
چکیده [English]

INTRODUCTION
With the agreement of political parties in the Kurdistan Region to hold a referendum on independence on September 25, 2017, with strong opposition from the central government of Iraq and a sharp reaction to the military threat of regional powers, as well as the opposition of trans-national powers, the security and stability of the disputed region has once again threatened and hit a crisis. A new geopolitical emerged. Despite the opposition of the countries of the region, the Iraqi Kurdistan Region held a referendum on independence on October 25, 2017. In general, the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, which has been pursued since decades before by the Kurds, has become a crisis today. Because it has a lot of effects on the developments in the region and will have many consequences. This paper focuses on the Iraqi Kurdistan crisis, based on the model of Michael Burke, to explain the stages and factors behind the crisis.
According to Michael Barke's theory, a crisis is based on the identification of four stages: the emergence, expansion, reduction and impact. Describing and presenting findings in this framework looks at how each stage will shape the domain and the next stage.
The crisis process begins with the spark of an action, accident or environmental change, and other conditions expose it to a more intense level. The stage of expansion extends to another formulation among actors, and then the stage of decline begins and ends the crisis. Then, while an international crisis has been restrained, its effect remains on hostile parties, which is a sign of the stage of influence.
The geopolitical crisis created by the announcement of a referendum on the separation of Iraqi Kurdistan from the central government has many complications. This crisis can be explored and analyzed using various theories. One of the major theories in geopolitics is Burcker's theory. The main issue of this paper is the lack of clarity about the stages and factors behind the geopolitical crisis of Iraqi Kurdistan based on the Burkhart model.
The purpose of this article is to identify and explain the stages and factors behind the emergence of the Iraqi Kurdistan crisis based on the model of Michael Brocker.
The main question of this article is how are the stages of formation and the factors behind the geopolitical crisis of Iraqi Kurdistan based on the model of Michael Brocker?
The stages of the formation of the Iraqi Kurdistan's geopolitical crisis based on Michael Burke's model are: the fall of Saddam, the formation of the federal government in Kurdistan, the ISIL invasion of Syria and Iraq, the strengthening of Kurdish nationalism and independence, the domination of the Peshmerga in areas of Kirkuk, Ninawa and Diyala, The attack of the Iraqi Army and the Hamas al-Sha'abi forces in Kirkuk and the withdrawal of Peshmerga forces from Kirkuk. And the underlying factors in the Kurdistan crisis, the geopolitical prominence of the Kurdistan region, especially the Kirkuk region, the high level of symmetry between Iran and Turkey and the high level of opposition, accompanied by the threat of the two countries with the referendum and lack of support from the United States and the European Union.
This research is of a theoretical type and descriptive method has been used. The data of the research have been gathered by special library method and using the documents of the first hand and analyzed by content analysis method.
keyword:crisis,geopolitic,kurdistan,iraq,model michaeal brecher.
Methodology
This research is of a theoretical type and descriptive method has been used. The data of the research have been gathered by special library method and using the documents of the first hand and analyzed by content analysis method.

Results And Discussion
According to Michael Brother's theory, a geopolitical crisis is formed in four stages: the emergence, expansion, reduction, and the effects of the crisis and the factors that underlie and exacerbate the crisis, geography, conflict, the life of the actor of the crisis, the political system, the level of the international system, polarization And the intervention of regional and sub-regional powers. With a referendum in the Kurdistan region, a new geopolitical crisis was created in the region on the 25th of October 2017. Iraq's security and stability once again threatened and exacerbated the foreign and security policy of the region. Based on Michael Brocker's model, it became clear that independence, long-term territorial struggle and domination between the Kurds and the central government of Iraq over the strategic area of Kirkuk and the failure to implement Article 140 of the Iraqi constitution prepared the ground for the emergence of the crisis. ISIL's invasion of Iraq and the inability of the army to confront ISIL and then capture Kirkuk and parts of the districts of Diyala and Ninawa by Kurdish peshmerga, conducting a referendum in the Kurdistan region and subsequently an Iraqi military offensive against Kirkuk and reclaiming many areas on the expansion This crisis has added. The concern of the Kurdish climate leaders about the deterioration of the situation and their agreement with the central government to initiate talks has reduced the crisis and left significant political, security and economic implications.

Conclusion
Among the seven factors that underlie and exacerbate the crisis in the Michael Barrett model, geography and geopolitical prominence of the Kurdistan climate zone, and in particular the Kirkuk region, are the main causes and intensification of the current crisis and future crises, and one of the examples is the long-term conflicts that can be terminated Not detected. It was also found that two factors of intervention of regional and sub-national powers and the level of the international system played a key role in the short-term reduction of the Kurdish crisis. The symmetry of Iran-Turkey interests at a high level and the strong opposition, accompanied by the threat of the two countries with a referendum, and the lack of US-EU support for the Kurds, did not allow the Kurdish regional crisis to extend from the regional level to the international level.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Crisis
  • Geopolitics
  • Kurdistan
  • Iraq
  • Model Michael Brecher

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 09 دی 1397
  • تاریخ دریافت: 06 خرداد 1397
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 08 دی 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 09 دی 1397