برنامه ریزی توسعه منطقه ای بر پایه روش آینده پژوهی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو نویسی سایب(پژوهش موردی: استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشجوی دانشگاه اصفهان

2 استاد گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ریزی شهری دانشگاه اصفهان

3 دکتری اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

هدف پژوهش حاضر، برنامه ریزی توسعه منطقه ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد بر پایه روش آینده پژوهی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو نویسی سایب می باشد. برای تجزیه‌ و تحلیل داده‌ها از نرم‌افزارهای آینده پژوهیMicmac و سناریو نویسی Scenario Wizard، مبتنی بر روش طوفان فکری و انگیزش ذهنی استفاده‌ شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان می‌دهد که، 9 پیشران کلیدی ازجمله؛ سرمایه گذاری، گردشگری، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص و خبره، منابع آب، شبکه راه ها، امنیت سرمایه گذاری، محصولات زراعی و کشاورزی، زیربناهای روستایی و اشتغال از میان 32 عامل شناسایی‌شده، بیشترین تأثیر را در رشد و توسعه آینده استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد دارند و همچنین شاخص تحقیق و توسعه، به عنوان عامل تنظیم‌کننده بین عوامل تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر رشد و توسعه استان در نظر گرفته شد. همچنین برای ترسیم چشم انداز توسعه منطقه ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، پیشران‌های کلیدی به ‌عنوان عوامل پایه و اصلی در سناریونویسی در ادامه مورد استفاده قرار گرفتند. در واقع مجموعه وضعیت‌های محتمل این عوامل به شکل شفاف، راهبردها و استراتژی‌های کلیدی و سیاست‌گذاری را برای مدیران معین می‌کند. درنهایت با تدوین 112 وضعیت، 14 سناریو برای توسعه آینده استان در نظر گرفته شد که 5/12درصد از وضعیت‌ها دارای حالت بحرانی، 75/18درصد در حالت ایستا و75/68 درصد از وضعیت‌ها دارای شرایط مطلوب هستند. همچنین نتایج پژوهش نشان داد که مطلوب‌ترین سناریو برای توسعه آینده استان مبتنی بر استفاده از نخبگان و متخصصان داخل استان، رشد گردشگری طبیعی، توسعه حمل‌ونقل ریلی، توجه به اشتغال‌زایی، توسعه زیربناهای روستایی و مشوق‌های سرمایه‌گذاری و امنیت، توسعه محصولات باغی و در نهایت مدیریت بهینه و پایدار آب می‌باشد.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis cross-impact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamidreza varsi 2
  • MohammadReza Ghasemy 3
2 uni-isfahan
3 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural
production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Regional Development
  • Foresight
  • Scenario writing
  • CIB
  • Kohgiluyeh and Boyer ahmad

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 30 دی 1397
  • تاریخ دریافت: 25 اسفند 1395
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 30 دی 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 30 دی 1397