برنامه ریزی توسعۀ منطقه ای بر پایۀ روش آینده پژوهی تحلیل اثرات متقاطع و سناریو نویسی سایب (مطالعۀ موردی: استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد)

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه جغرافیا و برنامه ‏ریزی شهری، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

2 دانشجوی دکتری جغرافیا و برنامه‏ ریزی شهری، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

3 دکترای اقتصاد، دانشگاه اصفهان، ایران

چکیده

هدف از پژوهش حاضر برنامه‏ریزی توسعة منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد بر پایةروش آینده‏پژوهی تحلیل اثرهایمتقاطع و سناریونویسی سایب است. برای تجزیه‏ و تحلیل داده‏ها از نرم‏افزارهای آینده‏پژوهیMicmac  و سناریونویسی Scenario Wizard مبتنی بر روش طوفان فکری و انگیزش ذهنی استفاده‏ شده است. نتایج حاصل از پژوهش نشان ‏داد نُه پیشران کلیدی ازجمله سرمایه‏گذاری، گردشگری، استفاده از نیروهای متخصص و خبره، منابع آب، شبکةراه‏ها، امنیت سرمایه‏گذاری، محصولات زراعی و کشاورزی، زیربناهای روستایی،و اشتغال از میان 32 عامل شناسایی‏شده بیشترین تأثیر را در رشد و توسعة آیندة استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد دارد. همچنین، شاخص تحقیق و توسعه، به‏عنوان عامل تنظیم‏کننده،از میان عوامل تأثیرگذار و تأثیرپذیر رشد و توسعة استان درنظر گرفته شد. همچنین، برای ترسیم چشم‏انداز توسعة منطقه‏ای استان کهگیلویه و بویراحمد، پیشران‏های کلیدی به‏‏عنوان عوامل پایه و اصلی در سناریونویسی در ادامه استفاده شدند. درواقع،مجموعه وضعیت‏های محتمل این عوامل به‏شکلی شفاف راهبردها و استراتژی‏های کلیدی و سیاست‏گذاری را برای مدیران معین می‏کند. درنهایت، با تدوین 112 وضعیت، 14 سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان درنظر گرفته شد که 5/12درصد از وضعیت‏ها دارای حالت بحرانی‏اند، 75/18درصد در حالت ایستا و75/68درصد در شرایط مطلوب‏اند. همچنین، نتایج پژوهش نشان داد مطلوب‏ترین سناریو برای توسعة آیندة استان مبتنی بر استفاده از نخبگان و متخصصان داخل استان، رشد گردشگری طبیعی، توسعة حمل‏ونقل ریلی، توجه به اشتغال‏زایی، توسعة زیربناهای روستایی و مشوق‏های سرمایه‏گذاری و امنیت، توسعة محصولات باغی، و درنهایت مدیریت بهینه و پایدار آب است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Regional development planning Based on Methods of analysis cross-impact And CIB (Case study: Kohgiluyeh and Boyer Province)

نویسندگان [English]

  • hamidreza varsi 1
  • Hossein Hoseinikhah 2
  • MohammadReza Ghasemy 3
1 uni-isfahan
3 Ph.D. in Economics, University of Isfahan, Iran
چکیده [English]

The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural
production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible. The results showed that the most favorable scenario for the future development of the province Experts and specialists in the province, Natural tourism growth, The development of rail transportation, according to job creation, Development of rural infrastructure and investment incentives and security And the sustainable management of water.
The need for optimal development of regions need to know And sufficient knowledge of planning methods based Forecasts and analysis process. This study aims to Foresight using two methods of analysis and cross-impact scenario First, to identify and analyze the key driving factors discussed And then advancing the development of future scenarios Kohgiluyeh and Boyer could be written. For data analysis software MicMac and ScenarioWizard-based Delphi method is used. Finally, the results of applying the cross-impact analysis Showed that 8 key drivers such as tourism, Using experts, The development of rail and road transport, water resources, investment, Competition, Employment and Among the 32 factors identified agricultural production, The greatest impact on the growth and future development Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad Province and The index research and development, as a regulator Among the factors influencing the growth and development of the province was considered impressionable. The propellant as the main base of scripting The following factors were used. These factors are likely status set clear strategies and define key strategies and policies for directors. Finally, the development of112 items, 14 scenarios were considered for the future Province And 5/12 percent of the items have a critical situation, 75/18 in static mode and 75/68 of items are eligible.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Regional Development
  • Foresight
  • Scenario writing
  • CIB
  • Kohgiluyeh and Boyer ahmad
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