نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی
1 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه پیام نور
2 کارشناس ارشد جی. آی. اس، دانشگاه تبریز
عنوان مقاله [English]
Natural and human hazards are always a threat to human life. In recent decades, despite scientific advances, prediction of disasters, and crisis management, natural disasters continue to cost human societies dearly. Iran belongs to the 10 most disaster-stricken countries in the world. Among these disasters, earthquake is of particular importance in Iran, since it occurs more frequently and entails significantly more casualties than other natural calamities.
The city of Javanrood in western Iran has a unique position with special circmstances in relation to earthquake.As such, the present study uses ANP and Super Decision and ARC GIS software programs for land use data of Javanrood, namely 30*30 m DEM and ground map Geology on a scale of 1:100,000. After explaining the principles, it gives the vulnerability maps of the city, required for identification of the danger zones. The results indicate that about 20% of Javanrood urban areas are moderately vulnerable to this type of hazard and do not provide a good physical structure within the context of earthquake management. The apartments belonging to Maskan Mehr Project are more vulnerable as they are located on the high margins of the city on inadequate bedrocks, high elevations and slopes, and more floors than other houses.
This research employed ANP, super decision software, and ARC GIS software, for land area data, i.e. 30 * 30 meter DEM and geology map on a scale of 1:100,000. After explaining the principles, objectives, and considerations of inactive defense along with the analysis of passive defense approach in urban areas, the vulnerability maps required to identify the risk areas were identified and, finally, strategies for inertial defense measures related to urban management were provided.
Network Analysis Process (ANP), used in this research, is one of the multivariate decision-making techniques that is very similar to Hierarchical Analysis Process (AHP), being an expanded form of the latter and functioning in a better way. It was first proposed by Thomas El Saaty in 1996. What is more, the theory behind this process is that there is a network structure of the successor to the hierarchical structure. It takes into account the complex relation between decision elements through replacement of a hierarchical structure with a network structure. For this reason, the use of ANP has increased in most areas in recent years. The network analysis method is consisted of 6 steps:
Step One: Modeling and Explaining the Problem
Step Two: Matrix-Pair Comparison Matrix and Estimatation of the Relative Weight
Stage Three: Formation of Primary Supermatrix
Stage Four: Formation of Weight Supermatrix
Step Five: Sufficiently large weighted supermatrix for matrix elements to converge with their row values being equal
Step Six: Calculatation of the final weight of the criteria
Results and Discusssion
Results showed that Javanrood can be divided into three areas: old, new, and marginal. The central part of the city, due to its ancient texture along with vast majority of administrative, commercial, and service centers is of special importance. The older the building, the greater the wear resistance of its materials, which goes hand in hand with the fact that the use of low-quality materials in the past, had reduced buildings’ resistance to earthquake, mounting its level of vulnerability. Relief and health centers are among the most important urban services in the event of accidents for citizens. As the distance from these centers increases, timely relief to citizens is reduced, resulting in a higher level of vulnerability. Presence of open spaces and green spaces in the city's neighborhoods, in addition to allowing the residents to escape and take shelter, thus reducing the number of injuries, can also serve as temporary accommodation centers. So, both during and after the earthquake, it can prove effective in reducing the damage. Slope is also one of the factors to affect the vulnerability of residential buildings and urban facilities to natural factors such as earthquakes. The greater the slope, the higher the vulnerability to earthquakes and vice versa. Moreover, the bedrock type is the most important environmental factor for earthquake waves, influential by moving away and passing alluvial layers. The bedrock factors are known as the effect of the site, which as a resonance of earthquake waves, changes the characteristics of seismic waves such as amplitude, frequency, and durability of the strong movement.
In general, the older the building, the more resistant the building to earthquakes and the greater the vulnerability of the construction due to its increased material burnout and use of past durable materials. Also, the buildings have moderate vulnerability in the suburbs, having the most vulnerable buildings mainly belonging to Maskan Mehr Project houses. This is due to their higher margins and height as well as their greater number of bedrock and floors. Finally about 20% of the built-up spaces in Javanrood have a moderate to high vulnerability to these types of hazards, not providing a desirable body structure within the framework of earthquake management. Marginal neighborhoods in the area of high vulnerability, as well as apartment belonging to Maskan Mehr Project are more vulnerable due to the high elevation of the city, inappropriate bedrock, and the height and slope and the number of floors in comparison to other houses. The residential space and land use of this city are represented in a way that can lead to a great human catastrophe in case of lack of attention and proper planning for controlling earthquakes. Therefore, it is imperative that the city's management and institutions take action to reduce the vulnerability of these areas by looking at passive defense.
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