بررسی اثرات توسعة شهری و روستایی بر میزان مصرف انرژی در شهرستان تبریز

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 دانشیار گروه پژوهش‏های جغرافیایی، دانشکدة برنامه‏ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، تبریز، ایران.

2 دانشجوی کارشناسی ارشد برنامه‏ ریزی آمایش سرزمین، دانشکدة برنامه‏ ریزی و علوم محیطی، دانشگاه تبریز، ایران.

چکیده

رشد و توسعة اقتصادی، اجتماعی، و تکنولوژیکی در ارتباط با محیط ‏زیست از مسائل مهم و پیچیده است، به طوری که چگونگی تعامل بخش انرژی، محیط ‏زیست، و رشد و توسعه از محورهای اصلی توسعة پایدار هر کشوری محسوب می‏شود. از این ‏رو، در پژوهش حاضر به بررسی تأثیر توسعة شهری و روستایی بر میزان مصرف انرژی در دورة زمانی 1379- 1393 در شهرستان تبریز پرداخته شده است. تحقیق حاضر از نوع کاربردی و روش پژوهش آن توصیفی- تحلیلی است. برای جمع‏آوری اطلاعات و داده‏ها از مطالعات کتابخانه‏ای، اسنادی، و سازمان‏های مرتبط استفاده شده است. شاخص‏های تحقیق شامل ارزش افزودة بخش صنعت، درآمد سرانة واقعی، تعداد وسایل نقلیة موتوری، و نرخ شهرنشینی است. در تجزیه و تحلیل داده‏ها از مدل STIRPAT تعمیمیافته و روش‏های اقتصاد‏سنجی استفاده شده است. برای بررسی ایستایی داده‏ها از دو روش فیلیپس‏پرون و دیکی‏فولر تعمیم‏یافته و در تخمین رابطه از روش ARDL، آزمون بریوش گادفری، و روش جارک‏- برا استفاده شده است. نتایج حاصل از برآورد مدل‏ها حاکی از آن است که متغیرهای مدنظر در سطح معناداری بالایی دارای اثرگذاری مثبت بر روی مصرف انرژی هستند. تأثیر ارزش افزودة بخش صنعت، درآمد سرانة واقعی، نرخ شهرنشینی، و تعداد وسایل نقلیة موتوری بر مصرف سرانة انرژی به ترتیب 504/0، 99/1، 225/3، و 134/0 است؛ یعنی در بلند‏مدت یک درصد افزایش در شاخص‏های مورد نظر سرانة مصرف انرژی را به میزان 504/0، 99/1، 225/3، و 134/0 درصد افزایش می‏دهد. در بین شاخص‏های مورد بررسی، نرخ شهرنشینی با 225/3 بیشترین تأثیر را بر مصرف سرانة انرژی در شهرستان تبریز داشته است.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

The Study of Effects of Urban and Rural Development on Energy Consumption in Township of Tabriz

نویسندگان [English]

  • Abolfazl Ghanbari 1
  • Musa Vaezi 2
1 Academic Member/ University of Tabriz
2 Student
چکیده [English]

With the expansion of urbanization and urban and rural development along with the acceleration of population growth and the development of industrial, service, agricultural and transportation activities, ... the demand for energy consumption from different types of energy carriers has increased and in pursuit of these demands (increasing energy demand) has caused environmental pollution, the consequences of which are related to carbon dioxide emissions in space. Considering the fact that the metropolis of Tabriz has a large population and over time, it has been developed and developed in all aspects of development and is beyond reasonable limits in the capacity of the city, which directly and indirectly causes the biggest environmental problem in Tabriz city The problem of air pollution has been that natural conditions (the city's surroundings by mountains and the absence of persistent winds with the appropriate speed) also exacerbate this state. Therefore, knowledge and understanding of the factors affecting air pollution and environmental problems, as well as the way these factors behave in the length of time and the causes of the occurrence or exacerbation of these important factors.The problems caused by unsustainable use of resources and energy are a very dangerous and threatening landscape in developing countries. The present study tries to study urban and rural development on energy consumption in Tabriz city between 1994 and 2014. Data collection was carried out through library studies, documents and related organizations. For the analysis of data, the STIRPAT model and econometric methods are proportional to the static number of research variables. For estimation of relations, it have been used by the methods of extended distributions and the Berush Godfrey (LM) and Jark-Bra (JB) method. The results indicate that the value added of the industrial sector in the long term has been (0/504). In other words, a one percent increase in the value added of the per capita sector will increase the per capita energy consumption has been 0/504 in the long term. The effect of real per capita income on per capita energy consumption has been (1/99). The impact of the urbanization rate is (3/225) in the long term and the per capita impact of motor vehicle per capita on energy consumption is (0/134). The present research is descriptive-analytic in nature and in terms of research type, is applicable. In this study, the effect of variables on energy consumption in Tabriz city has been calculated using STIRPAT model and ARDL method. In order to study the static variables, the Dickey-Fuller statistic and Phillips-Peron statistical methods were used and for data analysis, econometric methods were used proportional to the static number of research variables. The research variables included the variables related to the STIRPAT model (per capita value added of the industry sector, real income per capita, urbanization rate, per capita motor vehicles and time), and the relationship of each of these variables with the amount of energy consumed as a dependent variable in this research. Is. The data gathering tool is library and documentary studies. For evaluation of its reliability, the Dickey Fuller test has been generalized and Phillips-Peron has been used, which has been used to obtain relevant data from the National Portal of Statistics and related statistics of the study area, and organizations and institutions have been used.
In this study, the STIRPAT model was used. This model is an interdisciplinary model that expresses the connection between the natural sciences and the social sciences. Each ecosystem consists of four components of equilibrium, environment, social organization and technology. This pattern insists on examining the combination of physical, biological and social variables. The goal is to systematically develop an environmental impact assessment. The STIRPAT model can be used to examine the interactions between components to understand how to create and solve environmental problems.
The basic model is as follows:
1) Ii = aPibAicTidei
In the model, the variables A, T and P are among the determinants of environmental change (I).
The impact of the value added of the industrial sector on the per capita energy consumption in the long run is positive and its level (0.504) is significant at 5% level. In other words, a one percent increase in the value added of the per capita sector will increase the per capita energy consumption by 504% in the long run. The reason for this relationship can be the accumulation of most industrial workshops of 10 employees and more, as well as heavy and energy industries in the province of Tabriz and lack of proper productivity in machinery and industry. The effect of real per capita income on per capita energy consumption (1.99) and at 1% is significant, which is consistent with theoretical and theoretical foundations. The significant point in the long-term relationship between independent variables and dependent variable (per capita energy consumption) is the impact of urbanization rate (3.225) and is significant at 10% level. The reason for such a relationship can be attributed to this factor, as the expansion of urbanization is common By increasing the diversity of the use of energy products and personal and other public transportation systems, changing lifestyles of individuals, the tendency to use luxury goods quickly to meet consumer needs and increase revenue and increase purchasing power, abundant advertising in cities and role The media is there, so the positive relationship between these two variables is possible Wages. Cited. The impact of motor vehicle per capita on per capita energy consumption (0.134) and at 5% is significant. Due to the increasing number of private vehicles and the lack of proper use of public transport, Failure to comply with international standards in the automotive industry. As the technology progresses along with it, among the independent variables, the most influences are on the dependent variable (per capita energy), through the urbanization rate, real per capita income, the value added of the industrial sector, the number of motor vehicles Theoretically theoretical and theoretical foundations seem logical.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • urban
  • Rural
  • Development
  • Energy
  • STIRPAT
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