عوامل مؤثر بر استمرار کولبری در روستاهای مرزی پاوه با رویکرد سناریو نگاری

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 گروه آموزشی جغرافیا - دانشکده ادبیات و علوم انسانی - دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد

2 دانشگاه فردوسی

3 تربیت مدرس

4 گروه جغرافیا- دانشکده ادبیات- دانشگاه فردوسی مشهد- ایران

چکیده

مناطق مرزی جزو مناطق حساس و شکننده هر کشوری محسوب می‌شود که به دلیل شرایط منحصربه‌فرد با معضلات بیکاری وعدم اشتغال، عدم دسترسی به تأمین نیازهای اولیه و ... روبرو است. معضل اقتصادی سبب شده است تا در مناطق غربی کشور به‌ویژه در روستاهای مرزی پاوه وضعیتی پدید آید که بخش زیادی از مردم کردنشین در این منطقه برای برطرف ساختن نیازهای اصلی زندگی خود به شغلی خطرناک با نام کولبری روی‌آورند. در این مقاله با روش توصیفی تحلیلی و بهره‌گیری از روش سناریونویسی به دنبال بررسی عواملی هستیم سبب تداوم این پدیده در روستاهای مرزی پاوه می‌شود. یافته‌های تحقیق نشان می‌دهد با توجه به این مساله که در اینجا هدف تهیه سناریوهای ممکن از 35 وضعیت احتمالی مربوط به 7 عامل کلیدی است. انتظار می‌رود بیش از 720 هزار سناریوی تلفیقی محتمل از میان این وضعیت‌های احتمالی استخراج شود که دربرگیرنده تمامی حالات پیش‌روی آینده تداوم کولبری در روستای مرزی پاوه باشد. نتایج به‌دست‌آمده از نرم‌افزار سناریو ویزارد نشان می‌دهد که 14 سناریو با سازگاری قوی و محتمل، 2906 سناریو با سازگاری ضعیف و 691 سناریوی ناسازگار پیش روی آینده اقتصاد کولبری وجود دارد. از این 45 وضعیت احتمالی، 26.6 درصد وضعیت بحرانی، 17.8 درصد در آستانه بحران، 26.6 درصد وضعیت ایستا، 13.4 درصد وضعیت نیمه مطلوب و 15.6 درصد نیز وضعیت مطلوب دارند. درمجموع 29 درصد وضعیت مطلوب و 44.4 درصد نیز وضعیت نامطلوب داشته‌اند. از 14 سناریوی محتمل، سناریوهای 1 و 2 دارای وضعیت مطلوب، سناریوهای 5، 6، 7، 12، 13، 14 وضعیت نامطلوب داشته‌اند. سناریوهای 11، 10، 9، 8، 4، 3 نیز دارای وضعیت بینابینی بوده‌اند و از ترکیب حالت‌های مختلف به وجود آمده‌اند.ضعیت مطلوب و 44.4 درصد نیز وضعیت نامطلوب داشته‌اند. از 14 سناریوی محتمل، سناریوهای 1 و 2 دارای وضعیت مطلوب، سناریوهای 5، 6، 7، 12، 13، 14 وضعیت نامطلوب داشته‌اند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Parameters affecting the stability of the Colberry phenomenon in the border village of Paveh

نویسندگان [English]

  • sajed bahramijaf 1
  • mohsen janparvar 2
  • Reyhaneh salehabadi 3
  • darya mazandrani 4
1 Department of Geography - Faculty of Literature and Humanities - Ferdowsi University of Mashhad
2 geography
3 tarbiatmodaress
4 Department of Geography- Faculty of Literature- ferdowsi University-Iran
چکیده [English]

Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related to seven key factors. It is expected that more than 720,000 possible consolidation scenarios will be extracted from these possible situations, which will include all the situations ahead of Colbury's future in the border village of Paveh. The results of the Wizard scenario software show that there are 14 scenarios with strong and probable compatibility, 2906 scenarios with poor compatibility, and 691 incompatible scenarios for the future of Colbury's economy. Of these 45 possible situations, 26.6% are in critical condition, 17.8% are on the verge of crisis, 26.6% are in static status, 13.4% are in semi-optimal condition and 15.6% are in optimal condition. In total, 29% were in good condition and 44.4% were in poor condition. Of the 14 possible scenarios, scenarios 1 and 2 have the desired status, scenarios 5, 6, 7, 12, 13, and14 have the unfavorable situation. Scenarios 11, 10, 9, 8, 4, 3 also had an intermediate status and were created by combining different modes.Border areas are among the most sensitive and fragile areas of any country, which due to the unique conditions, face the problems of unemployment and unemployment, lack of access to basic needs, and so on. The economic crisis has led to a situation in the western part of the country, especially in the border villages of Paveh, where a large number of Kurdish people in the region are turning to a dangerous job called Colbury to meet the basic needs of their lives. In this article, with the descriptive-analytical method and using the scenario writing method, we are looking to investigate the factors that cause this phenomenon to continue in the border villages of Paveh. The research findings show that the goal here is to create possible scenarios out of 35 possible situations related

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Continuity of Colbury
  • Paveh
  • Border Villages
  • Screenwriting
  • sustanibliety

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 04 مهر 1399
  • تاریخ دریافت: 13 خرداد 1399
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 02 مهر 1399
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 04 مهر 1399