بررسی نقش مولفه‌های جغرافیایی در بحران‌های ژئوپلیتیکی کلان‏ شهرهای ایران

نوع مقاله : مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسنده

دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی و گردشگری، واحد گرمسار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرمسار، ایران

چکیده

بحران‏ها سرچشمه‏ها و انواع مختلف دارند؛ اما بحران ژئوپلیتیکی عبارت است از منازعه و کشمکش کشورها و گروه‏های متشکل سیاسی‏- فضایی و بازیگران سیاسی بر سر کنترل و تصرف یک یا چند ارزش و عامل جغرافیایی. هدف اصلی از این مقاله عبارت است از تحلیل و بررسی نقش متغیرهای جغرافیایی در وقوع بحران‏های ژئوپلیتیکی ایران. سؤال اصلی مقاله این است که متغیرهای جغرافیایی به‏ویژه آلودگی هوای کلان‏شهرها چه نقشی در بحران‏های ژئوپلیتیکی کلان‏شهرهای ایران دارند؟ روش تحقیق پژوهش توصیفی- تحلیلی و استنباطی است. در گردآوری اطلاعات میدانی از هر دو روش کمّی و کیفی استفاده شده اسـت. در بخش کمّی، چهل نفر از متخصصان حوزةجغرافیای سیاسی به‏عنوان جامعة آمـاری مـورد اسـتناد قـرار گرفتند و در قسمت کیفی هفت نفر از متخصصان حوزةمدیریت بحران به روش گلولة برفی برای مصاحبه انتخاب شدند. برای ارزیابی میزان تأثیر بُعد جغرافیایی در شکل‏گیری بحران‏های ژئوپلیتیکی در کلان‏شهرهای ایران از آزمون‏  t‏تک‏نمونه و برای اولویت‏بندی میزان تأثیر هر یک از عوامل مربوط به بُعد جغرافیایی از آزمـون فریدمن استفاده شده است. نتایج مقاله نشان می‏دهد که متغیرهای جغرافیایی از آنجا که باعث نزاع بر سر منابع کمیاب می‏شود در بحران‏های ژئوپلیتیکی کلان‏شهرهای ایران نقش دارند و نهایتاً اینکه بحران‏های ژئوپلیتیکی، که عمدتاً حاصل تلاش برای تسلط بیشتر بر منابع کمیاب جغرافیایی هستند، اغلب، به دلیل آنکه این منابع در بعضی مناطق دچار بحران طبیعی می‏شوند به‏وقوع می‏پیوندد و بنابراین بحرانی جغرافیایی به بحرانی ژئوپلیتیک تبدیل می‏شود.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Investigating the Role of Geographical Components in Geopolitical Crises of Iranian Metropolis

نویسنده [English]

  • heidar lotfi
دانشیار جغرافیای سیاسی و گردشگری، واحد گرمسار، دانشگاه آزاد اسلامی، گرمسار، ایران.
چکیده [English]

Investigating the Role of Geographical Components in Geopolitical Crises of Iranian Metropolis
In general, power comes from geopolitical factors. This is quite obvious in the context of strategy, and so it is in the case of international economics and politics. Therefore, in order to understand the power of countries in the world, one must first get acquainted with the factors of geographical policy In today's world, geography is viewed from a political and security point of view and countries are trying to Make the most of the geography of promoting security, empowerment, and national interests.The natural geography that has provided the basis for human habitation is constantly threatening human beings. Drought and lack of rainfall cause a water crisis and destroy the human race and every living thing.But this drought with the management of optimal water consumption and the use of scientific and advanced irrigation methods can be turned into an opportunity for greater productivity. Dam construction, flood control and water storage behind dams, drought relief and electricity generation.All the "geographical" factors that play a role in threatening and de-threatening actors and political units are divided into two categories.The first category is the factors that play an important role in political relations and the increase or decrease of the power of the actor or political unit, and we can say that they have a geopolitical function.Like the position of a country that sits next to an international waterway and plays a controlling role on the waterway, or in the coastal region (Rimland) or being located on an energy source that is the area of influence and interest of the naval powers; And...Such factors usually reduce or increase the geopolitical weight of a political entity, and their national and international security is affected by their position;As for the second category of geographical factors, which include only the natural, living, physical and non-physical factors of geography, and place the fate of the political unit in an insecure environment.The impact of such factors on the life of a political unit has become a threat and a critical security issue. But if a person uses his rational power and intellect and uses his superior features to eliminate or manage threats, the dangers will be eliminated and the threats will be reduced, and even in some cases, they will become opportunities, otherwise they will cause destruction. They provide man. The natural geography that has provided the bedrock of human existence constantly threatens mankind.Drought and lack of rainfall cause water crisis and destroy the human race and every living thing, but this drought with the management of optimal water consumption and the use of scientific and advanced irrigation methods can become an opportunity for greater productivity. Dam construction, flood control and water storage behind dams, drought relief and electricity generation.According to the above, this subsystem has nine vital factors, which are mentioned in Figure 4. According to the results, in comparison with the analysis of quantitative and qualitative data, some of these factors in Iran have more importance and priority compared to other factors that the valley of this shape is shown to be different and thicker in thickness.These factors are: the size of the country, the talents and capabilities of the different environment of the country, the dispersion between regions and the geographical distance. These factors also affect other factors and are also affected by other factors;As a factor of talents and special capabilities of each region, which is effective on the need to prepare development plans according to the talents and needs of each region.And it is influenced by the fact that together they form a loop or cycle. Regarding the factor of size, it can be said that this factor is effective in the geometric shape of the country and also in the factor of distance from the center to the surroundings.The factor of distance from the center to the periphery can directly affect the formation of geopolitical crises.Finally, for the factor of over-dispersal of areas from each other, it can be said that this factor is effective in the distance of settlements from each other and also in the factor of distance from the center and around each other.‌ that the factor of distance from the center to the periphery also has a direct effect on the formation of geopolitical crises.
Crises have different origins and types but the geopolitical crisis is conflict and conflict between countries and political-space groups and political actors over the control and possession of one or more geographical values and factors. The main purpose of this article is analyzing the role of geographical variables in Iran's geopolitical crises. The main question of this paper is how do geographical variables, especially metropolitan air pollution, play a role in Iran's geopolitical crises? The research method is descriptive-analytical and inferential. Both quantitative and qualitative methods have been used in field data collection. In the quantitative section, forty geopolitical scholars came to the census as a statistical population.In the qualitative section, seven experts in the field of crisis management were selected for the snowball interview. To assess the impact of geographical dimension on the shape of geopolitical crises in Iran One-sample t-test and to prioritize the extent of impact of each of the geographic factors The Friedman test was used. The results of the paper show that Geographic variables, especially metropolitan air pollution Because it causes scuffle over scarce resources Play a role in Iran's geopolitical crises; and finally, the geopolitical crises which are sometimes the result of efforts to master geographical scarce resources often because these resources are in crisis in some areas it takes place and so a geographic crisis becomes a geopolitical crisis.

Keywords: Crisis, Geopolitic, Iran, Geopolitical Crisis, Air Pollution, Metropolis of Iran.

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Crisis
  • Geopolitic
  • Iran
  • Geopolitical Crisis
  • Air pollution
  1. اعظمی، هادی‏، ١٣٨٥، وزن ژئوپلیتیکی و نظام قدرت منطقه‏ای ‏(بررسی موردی: جنوب‏ غرب‏ آسیا)، فصل‏نامة ژئوپلیتیک، س ۲، ش ۳ و ۴.
  2. رابینسون، جیمز آ، 1378، بحران، گزیده مقالات سیاسی‌ – امنیتی، تهران: انتشارات پژوهشکده مطالعات راهبردی.
  3. علیجانی، بهلول، 1377، آب و هواشناسی ایران، چاپ چهارم، تهران: انتشارات دانشگاه پیام نور.
  4. میرحیدر، دره و ذکی، قربانعلی،­1381، بررسی نظام جغرافیایی- سیاسی ناحیه‌ای و امکان‌سنجی آن در ایران، فصل‏نامۀ پژوهش‌های جغرافیایی، س 34­، ش 42.
  5. افتخاری، اصغر، 1378، بنیادهای فرهنگی مدیریت استراتژیک و مقولة ناامنی، فصل‏نامة مطالعات راهبردی، ش 3.
  6. افتخاری، اصغر، 1385، کالبدشناسی تهدید، تهران: دانشگاه امام حسین(ع).
  7. آدمی، علی‏، 1389، راهبرد نگاه به شرق در سیاست خارجی جمهوری اسلامی ایران، تهران: مطالعات سیاسی.
  8. آقابخشی، علی و افشاری‏راد، مینو، 1379، فرهنگ علوم سیاسی، تهران: چاپار.
  9. بوزان، باری، 1378، مردم دولت‏ها‏ و هراس‏، ترجمة علی عبدالله‏خانی، تهران: پژوهشکدة مطالعات راهبردی.
  10. تاجیک، محمدرضا، 1379، مدیریت بحران؛ نقدی بر شیوه‏های تحلیل تدبیر بحران در ایران، تهران: فرهنگ گفتمان، 1379.
  11. تهامی، سیدمجتبی، 13۸۲، امنیت ملّی‏، داکترین‏ سیاست‏های‏ دفاعی و امنیتی، ج ۱، تهران: دانشگاه عالی دفاع ملّی،.
  12. جیمز. آ. رابینسون، 1378، بحران، گزیده‏مقالات سیاسی‏- امنیتی، ج 1، تهران: پژوهشکدة مطالعات راهبردی، 1378.
  13. حافظ‏نیا، محمدرضا و قالیباف، محمدباقر‏، 1380، راهبرد توزیع فضایی قدرت سیاسی در ایران از طریق توسعة نهادهای محلی، فصل‏نامة تحقیقات جغرافیایی، س ۱۶، ش 2 (پیاپی 61).
  14. حافظ‏نیا، محمدرضا، 1385، اصول و مفاهیم ژئوپلیتیک، مشهد: مؤسسة چاپ و انتشارات آستان‏ قدس‏ رضوی.

15. Scholvin, S., 2016,‏Geopolitics:‏ An Overview of Concepts and Empirical Examples from International Relations‏, Research fellow Institute of Economic and Cultural Geography, University of Hanover.

16. Sloan, G., 2017, Geopolitics, geography and strategic history. Geopolitical Theory. Routledge, Abingdon, UK, pp. 272. ISBN 9780714653488 Available at http://centaur.reading.ac.uk/47837/

17. Caldara, D. and Iacoviello, M., 2018, Measuring Geopolitical Risk, Latest version at https://www2.bc.edu/matteo-iacoviello/gpr_files/GPR_PAPER.pdf

18. https://www.amar.org.ir

19. Euromonitor International, 2016, Iran in 2030: The Future Demographic.

20. Azami, H., 2006, Geopolitical Weight and Regional Power System (Case Study: Southwest Asia), Geopolitical Quarterly, Vol. 2, pp. 3 and 4.

21. Robinson, James A., 1999, Crisis, Excerpts from Political-Security Articles, Tehran: Institute for Strategic Studies Publications.

22. Alijani, B., 1998, Iranian Meteorology, Tehran: Payame Noor University Press.

23. Mir Haidar, D. and Zaki, G., 2002, A Study of the Regional Geopolitical System and Its Feasibility Study in Iran, Quarterly Journal of Geographical Research, Vol. 34, p. 42

24. Eftekhari, A., 1999, Cultural Foundations of Strategic Management and Insecurity, Strategic Studies Quarterly, Vol.

25. Eftekhari, A., 2006, Anatomy of Threat, Tehran: Imam Hossein University.

26. Adami, Ali, 2010, Oriental Looking Strategy in the Foreign Policy of the Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran: Political Studies.

27. Aghabakhshi, A. and Afshari Rad, M., 2000, Culture of Political Science, Tehran: Chapar.

28. Bozan, B., 1999, People of Governments and Fear, translated by Ali Abdullah Khani, Tehran: Research Institute for Strategic Studies.

29. Tajik, M., 2000, Crisis Management; A Critique of the Methods of Crisis Management Analysis in Iran, Tehran: Farhang Goftman, 2000.

30. Tahami, S., 2003, National Security, Doctrine of Defense and Security Policies, Vol. 1, Tehran: Higher National Defense University.

31. Hafeznia, M. and Qalibaf, M., 2001, The Strategy of Spatial Distribution of Political Power in Iran through the Development of Local Institutions, Geographical Research Quarterly, Vol. 16, No. 2 (61).

32. Hafeznia, M., 2006, Principles and Concepts of Geopolitics, Mashhad: Astan Quds Razavi Publishing House.