شناسایی عوامل کلیدی تاثیرگذار در آینده مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک حوضه آبریز کورا- ارس

نوع مقاله : مستخرج از پایان نامه

نویسندگان

1 دکتری جغرافیای سیاسی دانشگاه خوارزمی تهران

2 دانشیار دانشگاه خوارزمی

10.22059/jhgr.2023.341329.1008478

چکیده

حوضه آبریز کورا- ارس از حوضه های آبریز مشترک مهم در بین پنج کشور ایران، ارمنستان، ترکیه، آذربایجان و گرجستان که از حساسیت و موقعیت ژئوپلیتیک،استزاتژیکی خاصی برخوردار است.آب جاری ارس ناشی از سرچشمه‌های ترکیه از مسیر ترکیه به ارمنستان، ترکیه -آذربایجان، ایران -آذربایجان، ایران -ارمنستان و بار دیگر ایران - آذربایجان را سیراب کرده و از مرز‌های آن‌ها می‌گذرد و به رودخانه کورا پیوسته به دریای خزر می‌ریزد. و سوال اصلی تحقیق این است عوامل کلیدی تاثیر گذار در آینده مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک حوضه آبریز کورا- ارس کدامند؟ هدف این پژوهش شناسایی عوامل موثر بر وضعیت آینده مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا- ارس و میزان اثرگذاری زمینه‌ای برای شناسایی پیشران‌های اصلی و توجه به آینده‌های جایگزین در افقی ‌کوتاه‌مدت، میان‌مدت و درازمدت است. در این پژوهش تاکید بر شرایط حساس در مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا – ارس با تکیه بر این پیشران‌های کلیدی بررسی می‌شودنوع تحقیق کاربردی و روش گردآوری اطاعات روش اسنادی، کتابخانه ای و استفاده از نظر خبرگان(25 نفر) و احصا ء 44 عوامل کلیدی شناساایی شده و با تشکیل پنل خبرگی و ادغام عوامل مشابه و تعداد 32 عامل مشخص شدند و شیوه تجزیه و تحلیل داده ها با استفاده از نرم افزار آینده پژوهی میک مک و به کارگیری روش تحلیل ماتریس متقاطع است و یافته های تحقیق گویای آن است که پپشران ها ی را در 4 بعد( مدیریت- حقوقی،جغرافیایی( طبیعی- زیست محیطی)، ژئوپلیتیک(سیاسی- اجتماعی) و اقتصادی و فنی) شناسایی شده است و در نهایت به 11 پیشران اصلی و کلیدی بر تبیین آینده مناسبات هیدروپلیتیک کشورهای حوضه آبریز کورا – ارس مشخص گردید. نتایج تحقیق نشان می دهد کشورهای پایین دست حوضه آبریز برای تعیین میزان رژیم حقوقی، دسترسی عادلانه به آب و مدیریت یکپارچه مشترک منابع آب با کشورهای بالادست حوضه از جمله ترکیه به توافقاتی دست یابند.

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

Identifying key factors influencing the future of hydropolitical relations in the Kura-Aras catchment

نویسندگان [English]

  • morad delalat 1
  • M Kavyani 2
1 Political Geography, Kharazmi University, Tehran
2 دانشیار دانشگاه خوارزمی
چکیده [English]

Kura-Aras catchment is one of the important joint catchments between the five countries of Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which has a special geopolitical sensitivity and location. Aras water from Turkish sources from Turkey to Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, Iran - Azerbaijan, Iran - Armenia and once again Iran - Azerbaijan irrigates and crosses their borders and flows into the Caspian Sea into the Kura River. And the main question of the research is what are the key factors influencing the future of hydropolitical relations of Kura-Aras catchment? Type of applied research and data collection method Documentary, library method and using the opinion of experts (25 people) and counting 44 key factors were identified and by forming an expert panel and merging similar factors and 32 factors were identified and data analysis method Using Mick Mac futures research software and applying matrix analysis method, the research findings show that the pressures are in 4 dimensions (management-legal, geographical (natural-environmental), geopolitical (political-). Social (economic and technical) has been identified and finally identified 11 main and key drivers for explaining the future of hydropolitical relations between the countries of Kura-Aras catchment. The results of the research show that the downstream countries of the catchment should reach agreements with the upstream countries, including Turkey, to determine the legal regime, fair access to water and joint integrated management of water resources.

Kura-Aras catchment is one of the important joint catchments between the five countries of Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which has a special geopolitical sensitivity and location. Aras water from Turkish sources from Turkey to Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, Iran - Azerbaijan, Iran - Armenia and once again Iran - Azerbaijan irrigates and crosses their borders and flows into the Caspian Sea into the Kura River. And the main question of the research is what are the key factors influencing the future of hydropolitical relations of Kura-Aras catchment? Type of applied research and data collection method Documentary, library method and using the opinion of experts (25 people) and counting 44 key factors were identified and by forming an expert panel and merging similar factors and 32 factors were identified and data analysis method Using Mick Mac futures research software and applying matrix analysis method, the research findings show that the pressures are in 4 dimensions (management-legal, geographical (natural-environmental), geopolitical (political-). Social (economic and technical) has been identified and finally identified 11 main and key drivers for explaining the future of hydropolitical relations between the countries of Kura-Aras catchment. The results of the research show that the downstream countries of the catchment should reach agreements with the upstream countries, including Turkey, to determine the legal regime, fair access to water and joint integrated management of water resources.

Kura-Aras catchment is one of the important joint catchments between the five countries of Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which has a special geopolitical sensitivity and location. Aras water from Turkish sources from Turkey to Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, Iran - Azerbaijan, Iran - Armenia and once again Iran - Azerbaijan irrigates and crosses their borders and flows into the Caspian Sea into the Kura River. And the main question of the research is what are the key factors influencing the future of hydropolitical relations of Kura-Aras catchment? Type of applied research and data collection method Documentary, library method and using the opinion of experts (25 people) and counting 44 key factors were identified and by forming an expert panel and merging similar factors and 32 factors were identified and data analysis method Using Mick Mac futures research software and applying matrix analysis method, the research findings show that the pressures are in 4 dimensions (management-legal, geographical (natural-environmental), geopolitical (political-). Social (economic and technical) has been identified and finally identified 11 main and key drivers for explaining the future of hydropolitical relations between the countries of Kura-Aras catchment. The results of the research show that the downstream countries of the catchment should reach agreements with the upstream countries, including Turkey, to determine the legal regime, fair access to water and joint integrated management of water resources.

Kura-Aras catchment is one of the important joint catchments between the five countries of Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which has a special geopolitical sensitivity and location. Aras water from Turkish sources from Turkey to Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, Iran - Azerbaijan, Iran - Armenia and once again Iran - Azerbaijan irrigates and crosses their borders and flows into the Caspian Sea into the Kura River. And the main question of the research is what are the key factors influencing the future of hydropolitical relations of Kura-Aras catchment? Type of applied research and data collection method Documentary, library method and using the opinion of experts (25 people) and counting 44 key factors were identified and by forming an expert panel and merging similar factors and 32 factors were identified and data analysis method Using Mick Mac futures research software and applying matrix analysis method, the research findings show that the pressures are in 4 dimensions (management-legal, geographical (natural-environmental), geopolitical (political-). Social (economic and technical) has been identified and finally identified 11 main and key drivers for explaining the future of hydropolitical relations between the countries of Kura-Aras catchment. The results of the research show that the downstream countries of the catchment should reach agreements with the upstream countries, including Turkey, to determine the legal regime, fair access to water and joint integrated management of water resources.

Kura-Aras catchment is one of the important joint catchments between the five countries of Iran, Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia, which has a special geopolitical sensitivity and location. Aras water from Turkish sources from Turkey to Armenia, Turkey - Azerbaijan, Iran - Azerbaijan, Iran - Armenia and once again Iran - Azerbaijan irrigates and crosses their borders and flows into the Caspian Sea into the Kura River .

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • Hydropolitics
  • Futurology
  • Watershed
  • Kura
  • Aras

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 23 بهمن 1401
  • تاریخ دریافت: 20 فروردین 1401
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 06 آبان 1401
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 23 بهمن 1401
  • تاریخ اولین انتشار: 23 بهمن 1401