نوع مقاله : مستخرج از پایان نامه
نویسندگان
1 جغرافیای سیاسی، جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران
2 دانشیار دانشکده جغرافیا، دانشگاه تهران
3 استادیار جغرافیای سیاسی، دانشگاه تهران
4 استادیار مرکز تحقیقات کشاورزی و منابع طبیعی استان بوشهر
چکیده
کلیدواژه‌ها
موضوعات
عنوان مقاله [English]
نویسندگان [English]
Abstract
Water shortage and challenge are words we are facing more as entering the 21st century. Iran, especially Bushehr province, is facing hydropolitical challenges due to various reasons such as population density, industrialization process, lack of rainfall, successive droughts, over-abstraction of water resources, etc. If this trend continues, it is anticipated that the province will face more hydropolitical challenges in the future. The present study seeks to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and their effect on economic security. In terms of purpose, the method of this research is the applied method, in terms of nature, it is exploratory, and in terms of data, the qualitative data of the research was collected through the analysis of the texts and referring to the experts using the semi-structured interview tool, which was selected through the theoretical sampling method. In the quantitative phase of the research, the data was collected using a researcher-made questionnaire, getting the help of 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province and using a multi-stage cluster sampling method. In the qualitative part of the research, the results show that two types affecting the economic security of the province can be explained, extra-provincial and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges; The results in the quantitative part show that firstly, the amount of intra- and extra-provincial hydropolitical challenges and its impact on the economic security of the province is higher than the average test or the Cut-off line. Secondly, the experimentally reproduced model has a relatively favorable fit and similarity with the conceptual model.
Introduction
Water is an element that is necessary for economic development, raising the standard of living and health, etc. Bushehr province, located in the arid and semi-arid regions of the south of the country, with successive droughts and low and irregular rainfall supplies, facing a kind of hydropathetic challenge, as it receives a large part of its water needs from the water resources of the neighboring provinces such as Fars and Kohgiluyeh and Boyer-Ahmad. Due to the existing conditions and the reduction of water resources in the neighboring provinces, there is a possibility of hydropolitical tensions. The purpose of the current research was to explain and evaluate the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and their effect on the economic security of the province. This research seeks to answer the question of what are the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province and what is its effect on the economic security of the province.
Research Methods
The current research is practical in terms of its purpose, exploratory in nature and combined in terms of data; In the qualitative phase, semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, as well as indirect observation (reading of texts) were used. In the quantitative phase, a survey study was used to collect data. Then, based on the organized themes of the qualitative phase, a researcher-made questionnaire was designed in the form of a five-point Likert scale, and after validation and reliability, 165 experts in the field of water and political geography of Bushehr province completed that were selected using the multi-stage cluster sampling method. Finally, after coding, the research data were extracted, tested and interpreted using SPSS26 and Smart-PLS statistical software in two sections, descriptive analysis, and inferential analysis.
Findings
The findings of the research have been made in two parts, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative part, after analyzing the texts and semi-structured interviews with experts in the field of water and political geography, they have been analyzed, after the discovery and calculation of the conceptual model of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province, as well as the economic security indicators of Bushehr province, have been drawn. In the quantitative part, the data obtained from the questionnaire after coding, they were extracted and transferred to SPSS26 and Smart-PLS software and analyzed and interpreted in two parts: descriptive analysis and inferential analysis. The independent variable of hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province with 45.466 (with a test average or cut-off line of 36) and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with 80.392 (with a test average or cut-off line of 63) is above the average level, therefore it indicates that the amount of hydropolitical challenges in Bushehr province is relatively high; Because this rate is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of measured questions. The second and third hypotheses of the research have been confirmed at the error level of 0.01. But the first hypothesis considering that the T-test value is below 1.96, has not confirmed.
Conclusion
The descriptive findings of the research show that the independent variable of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province is the average of 45.466 and its dimensions include extra-provincial hydro-political challenges with an average of 6.406 and intra-provincial hydropolitical challenges with an average of 39.060 and the dependent variable of economic security indicators with an average of 80.3925 in the studied statistical population are higher than the test average or the cut-off line. Therefore, they are not in a favorable situation, because their level is higher than the standard level determined based on the total number of questions measured by the variables. The inferential findings of the research also show that the first hypothesis of the research's T-value of 0.848 is less than 1.96 and its significance level is greater than 0.05, so this hypothesis is rejected. The second hypothesis of the research's T-value is 3.220 and greater than 2.58. Therefore, its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the second hypothesis is confirmed. The third hypothesis of the research's T-value is equal to 3.04, which shows that its significance level is smaller than 0.01. As a result, the third hypothesis is also confirmed. Therefore, goodness of the fit of this model, which is equal to 0.198, yields the general hypothesis of the research "The model of the effect of the hydropolitical challenges of Bushehr province on the economic prosperity of the province has the required fit" is confirmed.
کلیدواژه‌ها [English]
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