ارزیابی سطوح توسعه یافتگی با استفاده از تکنیک های تصمیم گیری چند معیاره در بخشهای استان گیلان

نوع مقاله: مقاله علمی پژوهشی

نویسندگان

1 استاد

2 مدرس و کارشناس فنی

چکیده

امروزه تعیین و شناسایی سطوح توسعه یافتگی اصلی مهم در تدوین سیاستها و برنامه های توسعه محسوب و نتایج آن به عنوان راهنمایی سودمند توسط سیاستگذاران و برنامه ریزان در جهت شناسایی محروم ترین و توسعه یافته ترین مناطق استفاده می گردد. در راستای این مهم ارزیابی سطوح توسعه یافتگی بخش های استان گیلان لازم و ضروری به نظر میرسد. روش تحقیق توصیفی- تحلیلی و جامعه آماری تمامی بخشهای استان گیلان(43 بخش) می باشد که بر اساس 298 متغیر و 93 شاخص در 5 گروه شاخص ترکیبی(محیطی-اکولوژیک، اجتماعی-فرهنگی، اقتصادی، نهادی و کالبدی) رتبه بندی شده اند. شاخص های مورد مطالعه با استفاده از آخرین داده های موجود سرشماری نفوس و مسکن سال 1390 استان گیلان جمع آوری، با روش تقسیم بر میانگین استاندارد، با بهره گیری از مدل مولفه اصلی هم وزن و سپس با استفاده از روش های تاکسنومی عددی، تحلیل خوشه ای، تحلیل سلسله مراتبی، تاپسیس، موریس و تحلیل شبکه رتبه بندی شده و با تحلیل نتایج بخشهای استان در پنج گروه توسعه یافتگی بالا(10بخش)، توسعه یافتگی متوسط(7بخش)، گذار به توسعه یافتگی(8بخش)، محروم(9بخش) و محرومیت شدید (9بخش) سطح بندی و جایگاه هر یک از بخش ها در سطوح توسعه با بهره گیری از سیستم اطلاعات جغرافیایی مشخص شده است. در نهایت با مقایسه سطوح توسعه یافتگی در سال های 1385 و 1390 نشان داده شده است در طول این دوره 5 ساله از تعداد بخشهای موجود در سطوح محرومیت شدید و محروم کاسته و به تعداد بخش های موجود در سطح بالای توسعه یافتگی افزوده شده است .

کلیدواژه‌ها

موضوعات


عنوان مقاله [English]

On thEvaluation of Development Levels by Using Multi-Criteria Decision Making Techniques in the Parts of Guilan Province

نویسندگان [English]

  • Nasrollah Molaey Hashjin 1
  • maryam alinaghipour 2
1 Professor
2 teacher
چکیده [English]

Introduction:
Lack of attention to the rural areas, inattention to the capabilities of rural areas are of the main problems in achieving rural development.According to the fact todays sustainable development is considered as a development dominant approach, addressing this issue is of great importance in development studies. Meanwhile, the important issue of evaluation and classification of the sustainable rural development will enable us to deal with the studied territory's planning and management by having sufficient knowledge about it. Whereas determination and identification of the development levels has been located as a main and significant element in the formulation of appropriate policies and programs in rural development in this syudy the evaluation of the development levels in the parts of Gilan province seems to be necessary.
Methodology:
This study is an applied,and a descriptive and analytical research in objective and also in nature and methodology point of view, respectively.In collecting the required information, the library method was used and population consist of all parts of Gilan province (43 parts). The statistics of 2011 (the obtained data from the General Population and Housing Census) were used as variables and then, the variables were converted to indexes.These indexes were classified in 5 groups (Environmental-Ecological, Socio-Cultural, Economical, Characteristic and Physical) appropriate to the aspects of the development.
Since the number of indexes is different for different groups, a compound index was prepared for each group and then, these compound indexes were entered in analysis because only by this way, each group had equal voting rights.The indexes were entered into the SPSS software and the negative index were turned to the positive ones,firstly.So that,the indexes would have the same value.Alongside determining the degree of development, 298 variables and 93 indexes were collected. The methods of Numerical Taxonomy, Cluster Analysis, Analytic Hierarchy, Topsis, Morris and Network Analysis were used to determine the parts' ranking.First, in each of the development parts and finally,in the form of compound indexes, ranking and obtained results were analyzed.The techniques used in this research were the family members of Multiple Criteria Decision Making techniques. In this study, using the rank of each part while aware of the status of the part in development classification, and identifying the most deprived and the most developed sections, the homogeneity parts of the same floor was discussed and then, the results obtained in the form of a map were shown.In the next step,comparing the development level of years 2006 and 2011 was done by applying Topsis technique.
Result and Discussion:
The results showed that 10 parts out of the total of 43 parts (Central Shaft, Central Lahajan,Central Fooman,Central Some'ehSara,Rasht's Khoshkbijar,Rasht's Sangar, Rasht's Khomam, Central Bandar-e Anzali,and Central AstanehAshrafieh),7 parts (Rudboneh in Lahajan, Central Langerud, Tolam in Some'ehSara, Central Roodsar, Rasht's Lasht-eNesha, Kiashahr in AstanehAshrafieh, Rasht's Koochesfahan),8 parts(Central Rezvanshahr, Central Amlash,Rankohi in Amlash,Ahmadsargurab in Shaft,Komale in Langerud,MirzaKuchikKhan in Some'ehSara, Rahmatabad and blocks in Rudbar,Central Talesh),9 parts (Shanderman in Masal, Central Siahkal, Deylaman in Siahkal, Otaghour in Langerud, Kalachay in Roodsar, Rahim Abad in Roodsar, Amarlou in Rudbar, Asalem in Talesh, and Lavandevil in Astara),and 9 parts (Central Masal, Parehsar in Rezvanshahr, Sardarjangal in Fooman, Chaboksar in Roodsar, Khorgam in Rudbar, Central Rudbar, Havigh in Talesh, Karganrood in Talesh, Central Astara)are respectively in the high development, moderate development ,transition to development, deprived, and severe deprivation levels. Also, by comparing the development levels in years 2006 and 2011, we can find that in 2006, of the total of 43 parts, 7, 9, 4, 13, and 10 parts and in year 2011, out of the total of 43 parts,12, 6, 11, 11, and 3 parts were in high level of development, medium level of development, transition to development level, deprived level, and severe deprivation level, correspondingly. It means that the number of parts in levels of severe deprivation and deprived has been lessened and the number of parts in the upper level of development has been enlarged.
conclusion:
To allocate funds and resources among different areas, it is necessary to identify the status of the area in relevant parts and to rank the utilization levels of the benefits of development. Sparsely populated rural areas in the country are not capable to attract suitable investment, services, and technology, for all-round and stable development.So,it is indispensable to create a hierarchical service giving to be able to dispatch equipment, facilities and services properly, by ranking and classification of a system.There are different methods in ranking the different aspects of which does not necessarily entail the same answers. But, it is possible to select methods and then, by combining the results, to attain unit ranking and next, an appropriate classification.
Finding an efficient method to measure the development and then, services giving in areas because of the large number of villages in each area, population distribution, diversity of rural area and their distribution in the area, the position of their relationship, rural especial properties, lack of budgets and civil credits, shortage of specialist staff, rural administrative management system and paying less attention to rural settlements is a difficult affairand there is a hope that accordance with the results of this study, the right decision could be taken for giving services to the villages and parts which will improve the welfare of the villagers, activate the rural economy, raise the rural incomes and employment level. Planning and implementation of rural development projectsin parts, prioritizing areas of deprived and severe deprivation in the medium term development program, use a particular strategy to expand the welfare and civil services and upgrading the production capacities and employment in rural areas to maintain the population and preventing the migration are of proposals that are useful in the studied area.
Keywords: Developmental levels, rural development, multi-criteria decision-making techniques, Guilan province

کلیدواژه‌ها [English]

  • "Evaluation"
  • "Development Levels"
  • "Rural Development"
  • "Multi Criteria Decision Making Techniques "
  • "Guilan Province"

مقالات آماده انتشار، پذیرفته شده
انتشار آنلاین از تاریخ 22 خرداد 1397
  • تاریخ دریافت: 02 خرداد 1396
  • تاریخ بازنگری: 21 خرداد 1397
  • تاریخ پذیرش: 22 خرداد 1397